Timeshare vacation company Hilton Grand Vacations (NYSE: HGV) fell short of the market’s revenue expectations in Q4 CY2025 as sales rose 3.8% year on year to $1.33 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.88 per share was 24% below analysts’ consensus estimates.
Is now the time to buy Hilton Grand Vacations? Find out by accessing our full research report, it’s free.
Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $1.33 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.37 billion (3.8% year-on-year growth, 2.9% miss)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.88 vs analyst expectations of $1.16 (24% miss)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $292 million vs analyst estimates of $306.4 million (21.9% margin, 4.7% miss)
- Operating Margin: 9.5%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Free Cash Flow Margin: 9.4%, down from 68.8% in the same quarter last year
- Members: 722,874, in line with the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $4.16 billion
Company Overview
Spun off from Hilton Worldwide in 2017, Hilton Grand Vacations (NYSE: HGV) is a global timeshare company that provides travel experiences for its customers through its timeshare resorts and club membership programs.
Revenue Growth
A company’s long-term sales performance is one signal of its overall quality. Any business can have short-term success, but a top-tier one grows for years. Over the last five years, Hilton Grand Vacations grew its sales at a 38.8% annual rate. Though this growth is acceptable on an absolute basis, we need to see more than just topline growth for the consumer discretionary sector, which can display significant earnings volatility. This means our bar for the sector is particularly high, reflecting the non-essential and hit-driven nature of the products and services offered. Additionally, five-year CAGR starts around Covid, when revenue was depressed then rebounded.
We at StockStory place the most emphasis on long-term growth, but within consumer discretionary, a stretched historical view may miss a company riding a successful new property or trend. Hilton Grand Vacations’s recent performance shows its demand has slowed as its annualized revenue growth of 12.6% over the last two years was below its five-year trend. We’re wary when companies in the sector see decelerations in revenue growth, as it could signal changing consumer tastes aided by low switching costs. 
We can dig further into the company’s revenue dynamics by analyzing its number of members and conducted tours, which clocked in at 722,874 and 224,894 in the latest quarter. Over the last two years, Hilton Grand Vacations’s members averaged 7.6% year-on-year growth while its conducted tours averaged 2.6% year-on-year growth. 
This quarter, Hilton Grand Vacations’s revenue grew by 3.8% year on year to $1.33 billion, falling short of Wall Street’s estimates.
Looking ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to grow 10.2% over the next 12 months, a slight deceleration versus the last two years. This projection doesn't excite us and suggests its products and services will see some demand headwinds.
The 1999 book Gorilla Game predicted Microsoft and Apple would dominate tech before it happened. Its thesis? Identify the platform winners early. Today, enterprise software companies embedding generative AI are becoming the new gorillas. a profitable, fast-growing enterprise software stock that is already riding the automation wave and looking to catch the generative AI next.
Operating Margin
Hilton Grand Vacations’s operating margin might fluctuated slightly over the last 12 months but has remained more or less the same, averaging 8.8% over the last two years. This profitability was inadequate for a consumer discretionary business and caused by its suboptimal cost structure.
This quarter, Hilton Grand Vacations generated an operating margin profit margin of 9.5%, in line with the same quarter last year. This indicates the company’s overall cost structure has been relatively stable.
Earnings Per Share
Revenue trends explain a company’s historical growth, but the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) points to the profitability of that growth – for example, a company could inflate its sales through excessive spending on advertising and promotions.
Hilton Grand Vacations’s full-year EPS flipped from negative to positive over the last five years. This is encouraging and shows it’s at a critical moment in its life.
In Q4, Hilton Grand Vacations reported adjusted EPS of $0.88, up from $0.49 in the same quarter last year. Despite growing year on year, this print missed analysts’ estimates, but we care more about long-term adjusted EPS growth than short-term movements. Over the next 12 months, Wall Street expects Hilton Grand Vacations’s full-year EPS of $2.11 to grow 106%.
Key Takeaways from Hilton Grand Vacations’s Q4 Results
We struggled to find many positives in these results. Its EPS missed and its revenue fell short of Wall Street’s estimates. Overall, this was a softer quarter. Still, the stock traded up 1.6% to $49.40 immediately after reporting.
Is Hilton Grand Vacations an attractive investment opportunity at the current price? The latest quarter does matter, but not nearly as much as longer-term fundamentals and valuation, when deciding if the stock is a buy. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here (it’s free).
