What Happened?
Shares of aircraft leasing company FTAI Aviation (NASDAQ:FTAI) jumped 5.2% in the afternoon session after Benchmark analysts reaffirmed their Buy rating and set a $300 price target, suggesting shares could more than double from current levels following a meeting with CEO Joe Adams, who addressed concerns raised in a January 2025 short report by Muddy Waters Research.
After the meeting, the analysts disagreed with the short report's allegations regarding improper accounting and the valuation of FTAI's Engine Module Swaps, calling them "misinformed."
Additionally, the analysts emphasized the potential of FTAI's Engine Module Swaps on the traditional engine maintenance model. This, along with the Strategic Capital Initiative (SCI), is expected to generate $200M+ in annual EBITDA for at least five years. The analysts observed that these weren't addressed in the short report.
Finally, the analysts cited a number of catalysts that could benefit FTAI in the short term, including 1. A narrow-scope internal audit. 2. The company's fourth-quarter 2024 results and outlook 3. Progress on SCI 4. A potential Parts Manufacturer Approval (PMA) announcement, and 5. The filing of the 10-K report.
Is now the time to buy FTAI Aviation? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
What The Market Is Telling Us
FTAI Aviation’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 32 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 2 days ago when the stock gained 7.6%. While there is no specific news today, the stock continues to recover after the Muddy Waters short report accusing the company of misrepresenting its business (more asset sales than maintenance, repair, overhaul (MRO) revenue) and engaging in misleading depreciation tactics. This could show that as investors digest the news, speak to FTAI management/investor relations, and conduct their own deep-dive fundamental research, they are gaining more confidence in the business compared to when the report was initially published.
Additionally, multiple sellside analysts from firms such as Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, and BTIG have defended the stock and categorized the drop post-Muddy Waters report to be overblown. The average target price from sellside analysts currently stands at over $180 per share according to CapIQ, significantly above today's current price.
FTAI Aviation is down 20.2% since the beginning of the year, and at $115.26 per share, it is trading 34.1% below its 52-week high of $174.96 from November 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of FTAI Aviation’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $5,935.
Here at StockStory, we certainly understand the potential of thematic investing. Diverse winners from Microsoft (MSFT) to Alphabet (GOOG), Coca-Cola (KO) to Monster Beverage (MNST) could all have been identified as promising growth stories with a megatrend driving the growth. So, in that spirit, we’ve identified a relatively under-the-radar profitable growth stock benefiting from the rise of AI, available to you FREE via this link.
