As several popular U.S.-listed Chinese stocks begin to show signs of a rebound, investors are left wondering whether now is the right time to jump back into the market or if these gains could be another value trap. The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE: FXI) has managed to buck its downtrend this year, trending nearly 10% higher year-to-date and consolidating above its 200-day SMA in a bullish pattern. However, with lingering concerns about the Chinese economy and regulatory environment, is it time to invest in these stocks, or should caution prevail? Let's take a closer look.
Can the Rebound in Chinese Stocks Sustain Itself?
Since the Lunar New Year, China's equity markets have shown signs of recovery, driven by better-than-expected GDP growth and positive development in the manufacturing and services sectors. Despite ongoing challenges such as a struggling property sector and geopolitical tensions, government measures like increased infrastructure investment and capital market reforms support the rebound.
China’s GDP grew 5.3% in Q1 2024, exceeding expectations and signaling a stronger-than-anticipated economic performance. This growth has contributed to the attractiveness of stock valuations, with the CSI300 and MSCI China indices trading below their historical averages. Looking ahead, earnings for 2024 and 2025 are expected to recover, particularly in sectors like industrials, utilities, and IT.
Analysts at Goldman noted that recent capital market reforms in China have also played a crucial role in this recovery. These reforms aim to balance market development and investor protection, focusing on improving IPO rules, enhancing disclosure, and supporting key areas such as technology and green investments. These measures are designed to foster a more robust and sustainable market environment.
While some obstacles remain, China's supportive policies and attractive valuations present a compelling opportunity for investors.
One investor who firmly believes in the rebound is Michael Burry, the investor made famous by the movie The Big Short. Let’s look at two U.S.-listed Chinese stocks that Burry holds in his portfolio, which might be a good option for investors seeking exposure to China.
Michael Burry’s Big Bet: Alibaba as His Top Portfolio Holding
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA) is a Chinese eCommerce and internet technology powerhouse. Its core platform, Alibaba.com, ranks as the world’s third-largest eCommerce platform by sales. The company boasts a market capitalization of $205 billion, a modest dividend yield of 1.21%, and a P/E ratio of 18.88.
Michael Burry has invested significantly in Alibaba, putting just over $11 million into the stock, making it the largest holding in his portfolio. This position, which he initiated in the first quarter, remains his top investment. After a mixed start to the year, Alibaba's shares have gained momentum, now up 5.4% year-to-date, and are solidly trading above key moving averages, including the 200-day SMA. The recent upward trend was bolstered by the company’s latest earnings report on August 15, where it exceeded EPS estimates by $0.20. For the full year, Alibaba is projecting earnings growth of 11.35% and is trading at an attractive forward P/E of 8.6.
Michael Burry Bets Big on Baidu Despite Recent Struggles
Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) is a leading Chinese technology company specializing in internet-related services and artificial intelligence. Despite attractive valuation metrics, including a P/E ratio of 10.97 and a forward P/E of 7.24, which suggest the stock could be a potential value buy, BIDU has been caught in a steep and steady downtrend, with shares down nearly 30% year-to-date, proving to be a value trap.
Nonetheless, Michael Burry has increased his stake in Baidu by more than 30,000 shares, bringing his total position to 75,000 shares valued at nearly $6.5 million as of June 30. While the stock’s current trend and market sentiment appears bearish, analysts remain optimistic. Based on 16 ratings, Baidu holds a Moderate Buy rating with a consensus price target of $137.13, indicating a significant potential upside of 63%.
