FWP
Filed
Pursuant To Rule 433
Registration No. 333-158105
September 21, 2009
An investors guide to the gold market
(US edition)
For thousands of years, gold has been valued as a global currency, a commodity, an investment and
simply an object of beauty. As financial markets developed rapidly during the 1980s and 1990s, gold
receded into the background and many investors lost touch with the asset. But recent years have
seen a striking revival in investor interest in gold. Some investors have bought gold as a tactical
asset in order to capitalize on the positive price outlook associated with strong demand and tight
supply in the industry. Others have bought gold as a long-term or strategic asset seeking to take
advantage of its unique investment characteristics. The 2007-2009 financial crisis has put golds
long standing role as a safe haven asset firmly back in the spotlight. But gold has a role to play
in enhancing portfolio performance regardless of the health of the financial sector or broader
economy. Gold has proven itself to be an effective portfolio diversifier returns are generally
uncorrelated with those financial assets typically held by US investors. It also has a long history
as an inflation and dollar hedge. This book describes the defining characteristics of the gold
market from an investors point of view. It also looks at the various aspects of demand and supply,
from important gold-buying religious festivals in India to exciting new uses of gold in the
industrial sector to the emergence of China as the worlds largest producer of gold. The book also
summarises the various ways that investors can buy gold or gain an exposure to movements in the
gold price and outlines the tax treatment of the yellow metal in the United States.
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Price trends
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6 |
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Gold and volatility
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The investment case for gold
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Gold as a portfolio diversifier |
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Gold as an inflation hedge |
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Gold as a dollar hedge |
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Gold as a safe haven |
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Demand
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Jewelry |
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Industrial |
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Investment |
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Supply
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The mining sector |
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Gold as a monetary reserve asset |
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Recycled gold |
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Ways to access the gold market
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44 |
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Pension eligibility and taxation
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50 |
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Related World Gold Council research
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52 |
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5
Price trends
The gold price reached a new record in 2008, fixing at US$1011.25/ oz in afternoon trading in
London on March 17, driven by safe-haven inflows in the run-up to the worst financial crisis since
the Great Depression. The credit crisis, which began in the summer of 2007, developed into a full
blown financial and economic crisis over the course of the year, sending the price of real and
financial assets spiraling downwards. The US economy suffered its first annual contraction in GDP
since 1982, while the benchmark S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average equity indices fell by 38%
and 34%, respectively. The other commonly traded commodities and diversified commodity baskets fell
between 6% and 63%; the price of oil, which is often erroneously equated to an investment in gold,
fell by 56%. Gold, though softening from its March peak, ended the year at US$869.75/oz, 4.3%
higher than the end of 2007, fulfilling its role as a safe-haven asset during times of financial or
geopolitical distress. In the first half of 2009, the gold price rallied by a further 7.4%, ending
June at US$934.50/oz.
Chart 1
Gold price (US$/oz), London PM fix
Source: Bloomberg
7
Golds price performance during the financial crisis put it firmly in the spotlight. Many investors
and commentators, hitherto unfamiliar with the yellow metal, attributed its high price solely
to safe haven inflows. Safe haven inflows played an important role between
H2 2007 H1 2009, but the increase in price over that period marked the continuation of a well
established trend rather than the
emergence of a new one. The rally in the gold price started a good six years before the financial
crisis began.
Golds bull run started in April 2001, when the price slowly lifted from its earlier low of
US$255.95/oz, just higher than the
20-year low of US$252.85/oz set on 25 August 1999. Golds
performance in the first nine months of 2001 was extremely modest, rising just
US$20.55/oz to US$276.50/oz, a level it had reached and periodically retreated from in the previous
few years. This time, however, the rise was to prove a harbinger for a strong and enduring rally.
Between the end of 2001 and 2008, the gold price rose from US$276.50/oz to US$869.75/oz, a
cumulative rise of 215% or an average annual return of 16%. Four of those eight years were marked
by gains of 20% or more. In the first half of 2009, the gold price rose by a further 7.5% to
US$934.50/oz.
Chart 2
Annual change in the gold price (end of period, % year-on-year)
Source: Bloomberg
8
Price trends
Like any freely-traded good or service, the price of gold is determined by the confluence of demand
and supply. Many factors influenced the rise in the gold price over this period (these are
discussed in more detail in the Demand and Supply chapters). On the supply side, mine production
started to fall from 2001, hit by the curtailment of mine expansion plans in previous years,
declining ore grades and production disruptions. Widespread producer de-hedging reduced the supply
of gold coming from the miners even more. At the same time, rising mining costs put a higher floor
underneath the gold price. Metals Economic Group estimates that the total cost of replacing
reserves and finding and mining new gold rose to US$655/oz in 2008 from US$281/oz in 2001. The
period was also marked by a fundamental shift in the behavior of central banks, who switched from
being large suppliers of gold to the market in 2001 to net purchasers in Q2 2009.
Meanwhile, on the demand side, strong GDP growth and a growing middle class in key jewelry buying
markets like India and China were putting a higher floor underneath the gold price. While new ways
to access the gold market were releasing pent-up investment demand, gold exchange-traded funds,
pioneered by World Gold Council in 2003, allowed investors to buy gold on stock exchanges for the
first time. The development of the ETFs was mirrored by growing interest in gold ownership more
generally, as evidenced by the concurrent rise in coin and bars sales. Investors began to
increasingly acknowledge golds diversification benefits. In H2 2008, as concerns about future
inflation and dollar weakness grew, investors bought gold as a store of value, encouraged by its
long history as an inflation and dollar hedge.
9
Gold and volatility
Golds volatility characteristics are often misunderstood. Many people tend to equate the behavior
of the price of gold to that of other commodities, which often are very volatile. Oil, copper and
soybeans, for example, have had annualized volatilities of 41%, 25% and 23%, respectively, over the
past twenty years (based on daily returns from July 1989 to June 2009). The volatility of gold over
the same period was just 15.8%. Overall, commodities, as measured by the S&P Goldman Sachs
Commodity Index, were over 35% more volatile than gold over the past twenty years.
There are good reasons why gold is less volatile than other commodities. First, the gold market is
deep and liquid, and is supported by the availability of large above-ground stocks. Because gold is
virtually indestructible, nearly all of the gold that has ever been mined still exists and, unlike
base metals or even other precious metals such as silver, much of it is in near-market form. As a
result, in the event of a sudden supply-side shock or rapid increase in demand, recycled gold can,
and frequently does, come back on to the market, thereby dampening any brewing price spike.
The second reason rests in the geographical diversity of mine production and gold reserves. These
are much more diverse globally than other commodities, leaving gold less vulnerable to regional or
country-specific shocks. Contrast this with oil, for example, where the price will often be
aggressively driven by economic or political events in the Middle East, Eurasia, and Africa
regions where geopolitical risk is usually comparatively high. Similar examples can be found in
metals: close to 50% of palladiums production comes from Russia, and 78% of platinums production
comes from South Africa.
11
Gold has, in fact, been slightly less volatile than major stock market indices such as the S&P 500
over the past 20 years. The average daily volatility from July 1989 to June 2009 for gold was 15.8%
per annum compared to 18.4% annual volatility for the S&P 500 over the same period. Even if 2008
and 2009 are excluded from the equation, given the unusually high levels of volatility experienced
by most assets during that time (the average daily volatility of the S&P 500 jumped to 41% in 2008,
while golds average daily volatility rose to 31.6%), the S&P 500 was still 10% more volatile than
gold on average.
Chart 3
2008 world gold mining and crude oil production by region
(% of total production)
Source: GFMS, Energy Information Administration
12
Gold and volatility
Chart 4
Gold and S&P 500 22-day average daily volatility (annualized)
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
13
The investment case for gold
Many investors have bought gold as a tactical asset in recent
years in order to capitalize on the positive price outlook
associated with strong demand and tight supply in the
industry. But gold also has a role to play as a strategic
asset, thanks to the diversification benefits it can bring to
a portfolio, its effectiveness as a store of value against
inflation and dollar depreciation, and its behavior as a
safe-haven in times of financial or geopolitical duress.
Gold as a portfolio diversifier
One of the most compelling reasons to invest in gold is to
help diversify a portfolio. Portfolio diversification is one
of the cornerstones of modern finance theory. Put simply, it
argues that investors should hold a range of assets in their
portfolio that are diversely correlated to lower the risk
while enhancing returns. Different assets perform well under
different macroeconomic, financial and geopolitical
conditions. For example, a sharp slowdown in world growth is
likely to hurt commodity prices and cyclical stocks, but
boost returns on government bonds. High inflation years will
often coincide with sharp rises in commodities prices, but
poor gains in equity and stock indices. Diversification
reduces the likelihood of substantial losses arising from a
change in macroeconomic conditions that are particularly
damaging for one asset class, or a group of asset classes
that behave in a similar fashion.
Table 1
Performance of key financial asset
classes and macroeconomic indicators
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Average |
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Average |
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Asset |
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1H 2009 |
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2008 |
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2007 |
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2006 |
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2001-2005 |
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1991-2000 |
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3-month T-bill |
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1.1 |
% |
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4.1 |
% |
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5.7 |
% |
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5.2 |
% |
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2.6 |
% |
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4.9 |
% |
US Treasurys |
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-4.6 |
% |
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14.7 |
% |
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9.7 |
% |
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3.3 |
% |
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5.8 |
% |
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7.4 |
% |
US Corporate bonds |
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8.9 |
% |
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-5.3 |
% |
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4.9 |
% |
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4.6 |
% |
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7.7 |
% |
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7.6 |
% |
US High yield |
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35.8 |
% |
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-29.4 |
% |
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2.1 |
% |
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13.6 |
% |
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10.6 |
% |
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9.9 |
% |
EM Sovereign debt |
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14.6 |
% |
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-10.9 |
% |
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6.3 |
% |
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9.9 |
% |
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12.3 |
% |
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11.7 |
% |
S&P 500 |
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3.2 |
% |
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-37.0 |
% |
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5.5 |
% |
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15.8 |
% |
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0.5 |
% |
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14.4 |
% |
MSCI World ex US |
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9.8 |
% |
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-43.2 |
% |
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12.9 |
% |
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26.2 |
% |
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5.3 |
% |
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7.4 |
% |
MSCI Emerging markets |
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36.2 |
% |
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-53.2 |
% |
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39.8 |
% |
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32.6 |
% |
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19.4 |
% |
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3.3 |
% |
REITs |
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-11.7 |
% |
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-37.7 |
% |
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-17.9 |
% |
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33.9 |
% |
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18.1 |
% |
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S&P GS Commodity index |
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6.6 |
% |
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-46.5 |
% |
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32.7 |
% |
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-15.1 |
% |
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9.8 |
% |
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6.1 |
% |
Gold (spot) |
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5.1 |
% |
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5.8 |
% |
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31.0 |
% |
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23.2 |
% |
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13.7 |
% |
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-2.6 |
% |
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Real GDP growth (saar) |
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-3.8 |
% |
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-1.9 |
% |
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2.5 |
% |
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2.4 |
% |
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2.4 |
% |
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3.5 |
% |
CPI inflation (saar) |
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2.7 |
% |
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-0.1 |
% |
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4.2 |
% |
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2.5 |
% |
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2.6 |
% |
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2.4 |
% |
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Note: All returns are based on total indices unless otherwise noted
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays, JP Morgan, World Gold Council
15
Because changes in the price of gold do not correlate with
changes in the price of other mainstream financial assets,
the yellow metal fulfils this investment criterion.
Importantly, it is a relationship that holds across markets
and over time. The correlation coefficients between gold and
a range of US assets are shown in the chart below. Over the
past ten years, the average correlation of gold with US
equities and short term cash bonds has been close to zero,
while the correlation of gold to government and corporate
bonds, world equities and REITs has ranged between 10% to
30%.
Gold price changes do not correlate strongly with most
commodities either. For example, the correlation of gold to
two major commodity indices: the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity
Index (a production-weighted index) and the Dow Jones AIG
Commodity Index (a liquidity and production-weighted index)
is 31% and 53% respectively. The difference arises from the
fact that the S&P GSCI is skewed towards energy while the DJ
AIG commodity index has a more diverse set of weights. Out of
the 20 major commodities that generally comprise the indices,
all but silver had a correlation with gold lower than 50%,
ranging between -10% and 46%.
Chart 5
10-year correlation of monthly returns on key asset classes
versus gold
(USD); Aug 99 - Jul 09
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays, JP Morgan, World Gold Council
16
The investment case for gold
Chart 6
10-year correlation of monthly returns on selected commodities versus gold (USD); Aug 99 - Jul 09
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
It is also worth noting that, contrary to popular belief,
there is no stable correlation between gold and oil prices;
at times the price of the two commodities move in the same
direction, but at other times they do not.
Golds lack of correlation with other assets is a function of
the unique drivers of demand and supply, which, as for any
freely traded good, ultimately determine price movements.
Demand for gold comes from three sectors: jewelry, industry
and investment; while supply comes from newly mined gold,
official sector sales and the recycling of above ground
stocks. The three sources of demand and three sources of
supply are, in turn, affected by a very wide range of
factors, discussed in more detail in the Demand and Supply
sections. Some factors, such as inflation and currency
movements,
17
Chart 7
Rolling 2-year correlation between monthly changes in the price
of gold (US$/oz) and oil (WTI, US$/bbl); May 85 - Jul 09)
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
are tied to developments elsewhere in financial markets, but
many more are peculiar to the gold market, underpinning the
yellow metals lack of correlation to other assets year after
year. These include fashion trends, marketing campaigns, the
Indian wedding season, religious festivals, gold mine
exploration spending, new discoveries of gold, the cost of
finding and mining gold and central banks strategic reserve
decisions.
18
The investment case for gold
Gold as an inflation hedge
Golds history as an inflation hedge spans centuries. It was perhaps best chronicled by Roy Jastram
in his seminal book The Golden Constant, originally published in 1977. Jastram, then professor of
Business Administration at the University of California at Berkeley, found that over the centuries
and in different countries, golds purchasing power, while fluctuating, has returned to a broadly
constant level. A new edition of the book was published in June 2009, with two additional chapters
by Jill Leyland, formerly Economic
Adviser to the World Gold Council, to bring it up to date.
More recent data show that gold has continued to hold its value
versus the dollar. Between the end of 1973 (at which point the price
of gold had been freed in both private and official markets) and June
2009, the gold price increased from US$106.72/oz to US$926.60/oz, a
rise of 768%. Adjusting for the cumulative rise in US consumer price
inflation over the same period, gold rose by 87%, which equates to an
annualized real return of 1.8%.
Chart 8
Gold (US$/oz, end of period) and real gold price (Jan 1974 = 100)
Source: Global Insight, World Gold Council
19
A cursory glance at changes in the gold price and changes in
the US consumer price index shows an intuitive relationship
between the two, with peaks in the gold price tending to lead
peaks in the CPI.
Observing golds performance in high inflation years compared
with moderate and low inflation years also helps to underline
the relationship. Between 1974 and 2008, US consumer price
inflation exceeded 5%, which we define as a high inflation
year, in 8 years; the CPI ranged between 2% and 4.9% (defined
as a moderate inflation year) in 21 years; and inflation was
low (below 2%) in 6 years. Whereas in the low and moderate
inflation years gold only posted mildly positive real
returns, in the high inflation years gold rose by an average
of 14.9% in real terms.
There are two main reasons why gold acts as an inflation
hedge. First, gold has a long history as a monetary asset,
but unlike other currencies its value cannot be de-based by
governments or central banks. Throughout history, governments
have repeatedly switched
Chart 9
Annual change in the gold price (US$/oz) and US CPI;
2-year moving average, % year-on-year; 1973-2008
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
20
The investment case for gold
Chart 10
Real change in the gold price (US$/oz), during high,
moderate and low inflation years (1974-2008)
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
on the printing presses to finance expenditure programs,
often leading to rampant inflation. More recently, concern
over the amount of money pumped into the economy during the
2007/2008 financial crisis led to a strong increase in
investors interest in gold as a store of value in early 2009
when the world economy started to show signs of recovery.
Second, commodities are often the root cause of inflation,
with increases in the price of fuels, metals and other raw
materials used in the production process passed from
producers to consumers, creating what economists term
cost-push inflation. Mining gold is a resource intensive
business, with many commodities, such as energy, cement and
rubber, used in the exploration, extraction and production
process. As a result, a rise in commodity prices puts direct
pressure on the cost of extracting gold, which in turn puts a
higher floor underneath the gold price.
21
Gold as a dollar hedge
Gold has historically exhibited a strong inverse relationship
to the dollar or, further back in history, whatever global
currency was dominant at the time. Over the past ten years,
the correlation of weekly returns between gold and the
trade-weighted dollar has ranged from -0.3 to -0.8. The
correlation coefficient in 2008 and in the first half of
2009, on a 52-week rolling basis, was -0.5. This relationship
makes gold an effective hedge against dollar weakness and has
been a key influence in driving up the gold price in recent
years, which have been characterized by a sharp depreciation
in the dollar and expectations of further dollar weakness due
to the record US budget deficit.
There are strong reasons why gold tends to move in an
opposite direction to the US dollar. First, gold is priced in
dollars and, everything else being equal, weakness in the
currency in which a real asset is denominated tends to lead
to an increase in its price, as sellers demand compensation
for the currency loss. Second, golds history as a monetary
asset makes it an attractive store of value in periods of
high inflation or rising inflation expectations,
Chart 11
Gold and the trade weighted dollar, correlation coefficient
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* 52-week rolling average
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Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council |
22
The investment case for gold
driven by excessive money supply growth, which undermines
fiat currencies. Third, the depreciation in the dollar
(appreciation in other currencies) reduces golds price to
buyers outside of the dollar bloc, increasing demand and
putting upward pressure on the price. Finally, a depreciation
in the dollar increases the costs of extracting gold overseas
and often the price of other commodities used in the
extraction and production process, thus putting a higher
floor underneath the gold price.
Gold as a safe-haven asset
Gold has a long history as a safe-haven asset. During periods
of geopolitical or financial market uncertainty, investors
have tended to increase their purchases of gold and
gold-related instruments. The 2008 financial crisis is a good
case in point, as gold rose 4.3%, based on the London PM fix,
in a year marked by contractions in nearly all financial
markets except government bonds. However, golds history as
the asset of last resort goes back far further. In his
classic book The Golden Constant, Roy Jastram describes
what he calls the Attila Effect, or the tendency of people
of all types to gravitate towards gold in times of social,
political and economic distress. Examples are plenty, but
given that the price of gold was not free floating until the
1970s, we will focus on modern history.
While gold should not be regarded as a panacea, given that
the price performance depends on many factors, one can still
find a positive relationship between gold and economic or
financial crises. Perhaps the best example of the value of
gold in the mind of investors lies in the recent crisis. The
gold price rose for the eighth consecutive year in 2008 amid
one of the most tumultuous years in financial markets since
the Great Depression. The price reached a new record high in
the first quarter of the year, of US$1011.25/oz, on the
London PM fix, on March 17, following the safe-haven inflows
in the run up to the Bear Stearns crisis and subsequent
takeover by JP Morgan with backing of the US Treasury. The
gold price subsequently pulled back, but spiked up several
times later in the year as it emerged that the Treasury would
have to bailout mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae,
and come to the rescue, along with the Federal Reserve, of
the US financial system as a whole.
23
Chart 12
Performance of gold (LHS, $US/oz) and S&P 500 index (RHS, level) during the 2008 financial crisis
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Lehman Brothers collapse in the fall of 2008 prompted
investors to buy an unprecedented 111 tonnes of gold ETFs in
five consecutive days, bringing total inflows in gold ETFs in
Q3 to 150 tonnes. However, the impact of strong investor
inflows into gold ETFs, coupled with strong buying of
physical gold, was offset to a significant extent by
disinvestment by institutional investors who, in the absence
of having anything else to sell and with money markets
essentially shut, used gold as an asset of last resort,
selling it to raise much-needed cash in order to meet margin
calls on other assets. Nevertheless, gold ended 2008 with a
4.3% return compared with a drop of 43% in commodity markets
(as measured by the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index), and a
37%, 43%, and 53% fall, respectively, in US, developed and
emerging equity markets.
24
The investment case for gold
There are valid reasons why investors buy gold during such
periods. Gold is unique in that it does not carry credit
risk. Gold is no ones liability. There is no risk that a
coupon or a redemption payment will not be made as for a
bond; or that a company will go out of business as for an
equity. And unlike a currency, the value of gold cannot be
affected by the economic policies of the issuing country or
undermined by inflation in that country. At the same time,
24-hour trading, a wide range of buyers from the jewelry
sector to financial institutions to manufacturers of
industrial products and the wide range of investment
channels available, including coins and bars, jewelry,
futures and options, exchange-traded funds, certificates and
structured products, make liquidity risk very low.
25
Demand
Gold demand comes from three sources: jewelry, industry
(including medical applications), and investment. In the five
years to 2008, the annual demand for gold was, on average,
3,599 tonnes. The primary source of demand comes from
jewelry, which has accounted for 68% of the total demand over
the past five years, followed by investment demand which has
accounted for a further 20% and industry which accounts for
the remaining 12%. Looking at 2008 in isolation shows a
notably different picture, with investments share of demand
increasing to 25%, at the expense of jewelry demand, which
declined to 62%. Industrial demand was unchanged at 12%.
Chart 13
Demand flow 5-year average (2004-2008)
Source: GFMS, World Gold Council
27
Jewelry
Jewelry demand is affected by desirability, income levels,
price and price volatility, as well as a variety of
socio-economic and cultural influences. Over 53% of jewelry
demand has come from four countries China, India, Turkey
and the USA over the past five years. Each market is driven
by a different set of socio-economic and cultural factors.
India, which typically buys a quarter of the worlds gold
each year, is a good case in point. Here, demand for gold is
firmly embedded in cultural and religious traditions. The
country has one of the most deeply religious societies in the
world, the most widespread faith being Hinduism, which is
practiced by around 80% of the population. Gold is seen as a
symbol of wealth and prosperity in the Hindu religion. Hindus
consider gold an auspicious metal, offered as a symbolically
significant gift during religious festivals. The most
important of these is Diwali, which marks the beginning of
the Hindu New Year and usually takes place in October or
November. Gold also plays an important role in the marriage
ceremony, where brides are often adorned from head to toe in
gold jewelry. Most of this will be a gift from the brides
parents as a way of providing her with some inheritance, as
Hindu tradition dictates that the familys assets are only
passed down to sons. Much of this demand takes place during
the wedding season, which falls between October and January
and April and May, though a good many purchases will be made
well in advance of the wedding, often years in advance and
perhaps even from birth.
These Indian events are one reason why demand for jewelry is
seasonal, but there are other important reasons. Christmas,
for instance, and other end-of-year festivals are also
significant gold-buying occasions around the globe. The long
holidays around 1st May (Labor Day), National Day and Chinese
New Year in China are also occasions associated with the
purchase of gold jewelry. Q4 is generally the strongest
quarter thanks to Diwali, the most important Hindu festival,
the main India wedding season and Christmas. Significant
events in Q1 are the Chinese New Year, the end of the Indian
wedding season and, to a lesser extent, Valentines Day. The
start of the second quarter sees additional wedding seasons
in parts of India, while May brings the Akshaya Trithya
festival in
28
Demand
Chart 14
5-year average jewelry demand by region (2004-2008)
Source: GFMS, World Gold Council
India. Tourist demand is at its peak in Turkey in the third
quarter. In contrast, the third quarter sees the Shrad a
fortnight whose religious significance is not propitious for
gold buying by Hindus.
Many of golds key jewelry-buying markets have experienced
rapid GDP growth over the past decade, India and China being
the best examples. This has led to a sharp increase in
households disposable income levels and has pushed a growing
number of households from low-income to middle and
high-incomes. The retail sectors in these countries have been
revolutionized as a result and gold has been one of the many
luxury consumer goods to benefit. In effect, rising income
levels have put a higher floor underneath the gold price than
in the past.
In 2008 and the first half of 2009, jewelry demand slowed
sharply as the world economy experienced its worst recession
since the Great Depression. Consumers, facing rising
unemployment and falling house and stock prices, concentrated
spending on essential
29
goods, at the expense of non-essentials such as jewelry. At the same time, the gold price reached
record levels in key jewelry buying markets, largely due to weakness in their respective
currencies. While a rising gold price is not always negative for jewelry demand, as jewelry is
often bought with the dual purpose of adornment and investment, in this instance, when combined
with a sharp slowdown in growth (and outright contraction in some countries) and unusually high
price volatility, it contributed to a notable downturn in the jewelry market.
Consumers and the jewelry trade do not like price volatility. It makes them reluctant to buy gold,
for fear that they might find they can purchase it cheaper at a later date. They are therefore
inclined to at least wait for prices to stabilize. This is especially true of markets like India
and the Middle East, where jewelry is priced according to the prevailing market rate with only a
very small mark up (1% to 2%). This makes changes in the market price of gold visible very quickly
at the retail level, thereby having a direct impact in the jewelry market.
The triple whammy of the global recession, record local currency gold prices and abnormally high
price volatility saw jewelry demand contract by 9% in 2008 and 22% in the first half of 2009.
30
Demand
Investment demand
Investment accounted for 20% of total demand over the past five years, or 717 tonnes per annum on
average, making it the second largest element of demand. In World Gold Councils Gold Demand
Trends, where readers can monitor demand and supply flows on a quarterly basis, investment is
divided into identifiable and inferred investment. Identifiable investment is made up of retail
investment in coins, bars, medals and imitation coins, and ETFs (exchange traded funds) and related
products. Inferred investment is the balancing item between the supply and demand figures. While
this category is partly an error term, its more important role is to capture the less visible part
of investment demand.
Since the beginning of the decade, total investment demand has soared from only 4% of overall gold
demand in 2000 to a record 25% in 2008. From 2003 to 2007, the increase in investment was driven
mainly by an increase in demand for ETF and related products, as the launch of these new
gold-backed products around the world released pent-up demand. In 2008, as demand
Chart 15
Identifiable investment demand (tonnes)
Source: GFMS
31
for safe-haven investments soared as the worlds financial markets
went into meltdown, both retail demand for coins and bars and ETF
demand increased sharply.
Although some of the safe haven inflows may diminish as the global
economy recovers and investors risk appetite improves, there are good
reasons to expect investment demand to remain strong. First, if
investors have learnt anything from the 2007/08 financial crisis it is
an understanding of risk and diversification, which is likely to
support the case for gold as a safe haven against future event
risks. More broadly, they have come to recognize the importance of
gold as a diversifying asset regardless of the state of the financial
sector or wider economy. Gold has been one of the few assets to
deliver on its diversification promise, in contrast to so many other
assets where the correlations with equities tended to 1. Second,
gold has a long history as a store of value against inflation and
dollar depreciation; many investors are of the view that both are on
the cards. Finally, the demand and supply dynamics in the gold
industry remain positive, supporting tactical allocations: the
strength of investment demand should continue to offset much of the
weakness in the jewelry and industrial sectors, where demand should
improve as the world economy recovers. On the supply side, mine
production remains relatively flat and central banks have turned from
being large net sellers of gold to small net buyers, according to
preliminary data.
Industrial demand
Industrial and dental uses account for around 12% of gold demand, or
an annual average of 441 tonnes from 2004 to 2008, inclusive. Over
half of the gold used in technical applications goes into electronic
components thanks to golds high thermal and electrical conductivity
and its outstanding resistance to corrosion. The share of electronics
in total gold demand has grown over the past decade but it also
fluctuates according to global GDP and the fortunes of the electronics
industry. Most manufacturing of electronic components containing gold
occurs in North America, Western Europe or East Asia.
32
Demand
Golds medical use has a long history; its bio-compatibility,
resistance to bacterial colonization and to corrosion, as well as its
malleability mean that it can be used successfully inside the human
body. Todays various biomedical applications include the use of gold
wires in pacemakers, implants for the eye and inner ear, as well as
gold seeds in the treatment of prostate cancer. Its best-known and
most widespread use, however, is in dentistry. Dental use currently
accounts for about 1.7% of gold demand on average for the past 5
years, a share which is gradually declining.
Gold is also used in a number of other industrial and decorative
purposes such as gold plating and coating and in gold thread (used in
saris in India). Various techniques are employed to enable gold to be
used in decorative finishes. Other applications take advantage of
golds reflectivity of heat and other useful optical properties.
Overall these uses of gold account for 2-3% of total demand.
New uses of gold
Research over the last decade has uncovered a number of possible new
practical uses for gold, some of which appear to have substantial
potential in increasing the industrial use of the metal. This includes
the use of gold as a catalyst in fuel cells, chemical processing and
controlling pollution. A number of companies are known to be
developing industrial catalysts based on gold and this could lead to
important new demand for the metal, not least in the automotive
industry, which currently consumes large quantities of other precious
metals like platinum (but not gold). In the rapidly developing field
of nanotechnology there are many possible applications, including the
use of gold in solar cells, improved LCD displays using gold nanorods,
for example, in mobile phones and laptops, as well as the development
of new technologies to store terabytes of data on a single disc or
flash memory device.
33
Supply
The annual supply of gold comes from a combination of newly mined gold, the mobilization of
central bank reserves and the recycling of above ground stocks. In the five years to 2008, the
annual supply of gold averaged 3,599 tonnes, 59% of which came from newly mined production (net
of producer de-hedging), 13% from net official sector sales and 28% from the recycling of
fabricated products, principally jewelry.
Chart 16
Supply flows five-year average (2004-2008)
Source: GFMS, World Gold Council
Mine production
Gold is mined on every continent with the exception of Antarctica (where mining is forbidden), in
operations ranging from the tiny to the enormous. The dominant producing country for much of the
20th century was South Africa, which in the early 1970s was producing 1,000 tonnes per annum, or
over 70% of the world total at that time. This position has been eroded in the past two decades and
today mine production is much more geographically diverse. This helps to underpin golds lower
price volatility compared with other commodities, such as oil, as it has reduced the metals
vulnerability
35
to any economic, political or physical shock in a specific country or
region. China is currently the worlds largest producer of gold,
mining 292 tonnes of the yellow metal in 2008, followed by the United
States and South Africa, which produced 234.5 and 233.3 tonnes,
respectively.
The supply of gold from the mining sector has been declining since
2001, due partly to the considerable cutbacks in exploration spending
that accompanied the low gold price in the late 1990s and the
consequent dearth of major new discoveries that followed, and partly
to declining ore grades and production disruptions. The supply of gold
coming from the mining sector has been reduced even further over the
past five years by the widespread practice of de-hedging, with
producers closing out hedge positions (forward fixed price
arrangements) taken out in earlier years.
Although exploration spending started to picked up in earnest from
2003, thanks to the higher gold price, the industry has had only
limited success in finding major new deposits of gold. Metals
Chart 17
Top 10 Gold producing countries in 2008 (tonnes)
Source: GFMS
36
Supply
Economics Group cites no major discoveries of gold in their 2008
report, Strategies for Gold Reserve Replacement, and only one in
2007. On a three-year average basis, gold contained in major new
discoveries declined to 426 tonnes in 2008 compared with 3,948 tonnes
ten years ago. In addition, lead times in the industry are typically
very long, which means that it can take years for a new discovery to
translate into higher gold supply.
Despite these challenges, the major gold producers have been able to
replace their reserves through a combination of acquisitions, finding
additional resources at existing mines and upgrading resources to
reserves thanks to the higher gold price.
Operating costs
Mining gold is an expensive business. Before mining can even begin,
the gold must be found using costly exploration techniques, or gold
deposits must be acquired from a third party. A mine must then be
built, as well as possibly an entire infrastructure, depending on the
location of the mine. Gold-bearing ore is then dug from the
Chart 18
Mine production (tonnes)
Source: GFMS
37
Chart 19
Gold in major discoveries and gold exploration budgets by year
Source: Metal Economic Groups Stategies for Gold Reserve Replacement
surface or extracted from the rock face underground. It is then brought to the surface, where
necessary, and crushed or milled, then concentrated in order to separate out the coarser gold and
heavy mineral particles from the remaining parts of the ore. Gold is removed from the concentrate
by a number of processes and then smelted into gold-rich doré (a mix of gold and silver) and cast
into bars. Dore bars are then sent to an external refinery to be refined to bars of pure (999.9
parts per thousand) gold.
On top of all this, the mine facility needs to be maintained and overhead, administrative and
marketing costs must be met. The cost of all this varies greatly from mine to mine and depends
on a whole host of factors, including: the country of origin, the cost of labor, the nature
and distribution of the ore body, the ore grades, and such issues as the need to build
infrastructure and local political instability, which can lead to costly delays.
Costs are generally quoted cash or total. Cash costs include all the regular working
costs of the mine, while total costs include
38
Supply
additional charges such as depreciation. Cash and total costs have escalated sharply in recent
years, fuelled by inflationary pressures from rising labor costs, the higher price of energy and
other raw materials used in the production process, such as
rubber and steel, and the depreciation
in the dollar which has increased local currency costs in mines located outside of the dollar bloc.
Cash costs rose to US$467/oz in 2008 from US$176/oz in 2001, while total costs rose to
US$585/oz from US$228/oz over the same period.
But even total costs do not fully encompass
the cost of finding and mining gold. They do not, for instance, include exploration spending
that ultimately proves unsuccessful. Metals Economics Group estimates that, when these costs are
included, the all-inclusive cost of replacing and producing an ounce of gold was even higher in
2008, at US$655/oz. The rise in production costs has contributed to putting a higher floor
underneath the gold price in recent years.
Chart 20
Total cost of replacing and producing an ounce of gold,
1999-2008, (US$/oz)
Source: Metals Economics Group
39
Supply from above ground stocks
Because gold is virtually indestructible, practically all of the gold
that has ever been mined still exists. Of the 163,000 tonnes of above
ground stocks currently estimated to be in existence, GFMS calculates
that 51% is held in the form of jewelry, 18% is in the hands of the
official sector, 17% is with investors, 12% is contained within
industrial products and 2% is unaccounted for. Some of this gold
periodically comes back onto the market, principally from the jewelry
and official sectors.
Chart 21
Above ground stock, end 2008 = 163,000 tonnes
Source: GFMS
Official sector
Central banks and supranational organizations have been major holders
of gold for more than 100 years. Central banks started building up
their stocks of gold from the 1880s, during the period of the classic
gold standard, when the amount of money in circulation was linked to
the countrys gold stock, and paper money was convertible to gold at a
fixed price. At their peak in the 1960s, official gold reserves were
around 38,000 tonnes and
40
Supply
probably accounted for about half of above ground stocks at that time.
Gradually, as central banks created more money than was consistent
with stable prices and after several years of moderate, but persistent
inflation, the maintenance of the official price of gold became
unrealistic, and the United States, as the pivot of the system, was
faced with the choice of deflating, devaluing or abandoning the
system. In August 1971, it abandoned the system, with President Nixon
closing the gold window.
In the 1980s and 1990s, central banks began to re-appraise the role of
gold in their external reserves. Some central banks decided to reduce
their gold holdings and the total of official stocks declined by about
10% between 1980 and 1999. In September 1999, a group of European
central banks agreed, in the first Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA1)
to limit disposals to 400 tonnes a year for five years, and also set a
ceiling on the volume of gold lent to the market. They also reaffirmed
their confidence in the future of gold as a reserve asset. CBGA1
proved very successful and was renewed (CBGA2) for a further five year
term in September 2004, this time setting the annual ceiling at 500
tonnes. Signatories sold the full quota in the first three years of
the agreement, but significantly undersold the ceiling in the final
two years. In the penultimate year of the agreement, signatories sold
358 tonnes of gold and, with just one month to go at the time of
writing, 140 tonnes to date in the final year. A third five-year CBGA
agreement was announced on August 7, 2009, reducing the annual ceiling
to 400 tonnes, in a clear acknowledgement that central banks appetite
for gold sales had diminished. At the same time, the signatories
reiterated the importance of gold as an element of global monetary
reserves and said that the planned 403 tonnes of IMF sales could also
be accommodated within the agreement.
Many other central banks around the world hold either no gold or a
very small percentage of their total reserve in gold. However, this is
starting to change. Most noteworthy in 2008 was the announcement by
Chinas State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) that the
countrys official reserves had grown to 1,054 tonnes from 600 tonnes.
This makes China the worlds sixth largest official holder of
41
Chart 22
Central bank sales under CBGA2 (tonnes)
Source: World Gold Council
gold, after the United States, Germany, the IMF, Italy and France. Yet the yellow metal still
accounts for less than 2% of the countrys huge reserves, meaning there is ample scope for further
growth, as is the case in the rest of Asia. The International Monetary Funds International
Financial Statistics, in which nearly all central banks report their gold holdings, also reported a
notable increase in Russias gold reserves in 2008 and the first half of 2009, taking the countrys
gold reserves to 536.9 tonnes in June 2009, or 4% of total reserves.
42
Supply
Recycled gold
The remaining supply of gold comes from recycled fabricated products, mainly from the jewelry
sector. Smaller amounts come from gold recuperated from the electronics sector. The supply of
recycled gold depends largely on economic circumstances and the behavior of the gold price. In the
five years to 2008, recycled gold fluctuated between 878 tonnes and 1215 tonnes per annum. It is
common practice in the Middle East and Asia for gold items to be sold if the owner needs ready
cash. Gold owners often also trade in one piece of jewelry for another and the original piece is
then melted down (if it is simply resold, it is not included as recycled gold in the statistics).
The 2007-2009 financial crisis was an example where the supply of gold from fabricated products
reached a record quarterly high of 558 tonnes in Q1 2009, driven by distress selling as the world
economy entered its worst recession since the Great Depression.
Chart 23
Recycled gold (tonnes)
Source: GFMS
43
Ways to access the gold market
The gold market is deep and liquid and there are many ways
for investors to buy physical gold or gain an exposure to
movements in the gold price.
Gold coins
Investors can choose from a wide range of gold bullion coins
issued by governments across the world. These coins are legal
tender in their country of issue for their face value rather
than for their gold content. For investment purposes, the
market value of bullion coins is determined by the value of
their fine gold content, plus a premium or mark-up that
varies between coins and dealers.
Coins vary in weight and in karatage. Karatage is an measure
of gold content. Pure gold (fine gold) is 24 karats, hence
24 karats is theoretically 100% gold. Any karat content lower
than 24 is a measure of how much gold there is, for example,
18 karat is 18/24ths of 100% gold = 75.0% gold. The most
common coin weights (in troy ounces of fine gold content) are
1/20, 1/10, 1/4, 1/2 and 1 ounce.
It is important not to confuse bullion coins with
commemorative or numismatic coins, whose value depends on
their rarity, design and finish rather than on their fine
gold content. Many mints and dealers sell both.
The US Mint offers a variety of bullion and commemorative
coins, listed on their website at www.usmint.gov. The most
widely traded coins in the US are American Eagle Coins.
American Eagles use 22 karat gold and are produced from gold
mined in the United States. Their weight, content and purity
are guaranteed by the United States Government. The US Mint
does not sell American Eagle, or other bullion coins, direct
to the public, but instead uses a network of wholesalers,
brokerage companies, precious metals firms, coins dealers and
banks; a network know as Authorized Purchasers. A collectible
version of the American Eagle Gold Bullion Coin is available
directly from the United States Mint. The Mint also offers a
24k bullion coin the American Buffalo via the same
Authorized Purchaser channel.
45
Gold bars
Gold bars can also be bought in a variety of weights and
sizes, ranging from as little as one gram to 400 troy ounces
(the size of the internationally traded London Good Delivery
bar). Small bars are defined as those weighing 1000g or less.
Bars are typically marked with the name of the manufacturer
or issuer, a serial number, the purity of the bar and, at
times, the weight. Bars are manufactured in different
purities, usually ranging between 995 and 999.9 parts gold in
1000. The most widely traded small bars are one 1 kilo bars
and the most widely traded large bars are London Good
Delivery 400 oz bars. These bars must meet stringent
conditions set by the London Bullion Market Association
(LBMA), including being of a weight between 350 oz and 430oz
and being not less than 995 parts gold in 1000.
The Gold Bars Worldwide website (www.goldbarsworldwide.com)
provides a wealth of additional information regarding the
international gold bar market.
A list of coin and bar dealers in the US can be found on the
Where to Buy section of the World Gold Council website, at
http://www.invest.gold.org/sites/en/where_to_invest.
Gold exchange traded funds
Gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) offer investors the
convenience of buying gold on the stock exchange as easily as
they would any other share. There are several gold ETFs
listed on stock exchanges around the globe. The largest ETF
in the United States is SPDR® Gold Shares or GLD (its
ticker symbol) as it is often known, a joint initiative
between World Gold Council and State Street Global Advisors.
GLD was originally listed on the New York Stock Exchange in
November of 2004 and has traded on the NYSEs Arca platform
since December 13, 2007. GLD shares are 100% backed by
physical gold bullion, all of which is held in the form of
London Good Delivery 400 oz bars in allocated accounts.
Investors in GLD cannot take physical delivery of the gold,
rather it is held by a custodian on their behalf. The shares
track the spot price of gold, less the administration fees.
At the beginning of August 2009, the
46
Ways to access the gold market
fund held a total of 1,072 tonnes of London Good Delivery
Bars, worth around US$33 billion. The World Gold Council
backed ETFs, such as GLD, never engage in derivative
transactions. For more information, see
www.spdrgoldshares.com.
Gold accounts
Bullion banks offer gold accounts. In an allocated gold
account, gold is stored in a vault owned and managed by a
recognized bullion dealer or depository. Specific bars (or
coins, where appropriate), which are numbered and identified
by hallmark, weight and fineness, are allocated to each
particular investor, who pays the custodian for storage and
insurance. The holder of gold in an allocated account has
full ownership of the gold in the account, and the bullion
dealer or depository that owns the vault where the gold is
stored may not trade, lease or lend the bars except on the
specific instructions of the account holder.
In an unallocated account investors do not have specific
bars allotted to them (unless they take delivery of their
gold, which they can usually do within two working days).
Unallocated accounts are cheaper than allocated accounts as
the bank reserves the right to lease the gold to a third
party. As a general rule, bullion banks do not deal in
quantities of below 1000 ounces in either type of account.
Their customers are institutional investors, private banks
acting on behalf of their clients, central banks and gold
market participants wishing to buy or borrow large quantities
of gold.
Gold futures and options
Gold futures contracts are firm commitments to make or take
delivery of a specified quantity and purity of gold on a
prescribed date at an agreed price. The initial margin or
cash deposit paid to the broker is only a fraction of the
price of the gold underlying the contract. Consequently,
investors can achieve notional ownership of a value of gold
considerably greater than their initial cash outlay. While
this leverage can be the key to significant trading profits,
it can give rise to equally significant losses in the event
of an adverse movement in the gold price.
47
Futures contracts are traded on regulated commodity exchanges
around the world. In the United States, investors can trade
gold in 100 oz or 50 oz (miniFutures) lots on the New York
Mercantile
Exchanges COMEX division. If the buyer takes physical
delivery of the gold, then the seller must deliver 100 ounces
of refined gold per contract, assaying not less than 995
parts, cast either in one 100 oz bar or three 1 kilo bars,
bearing a serial number and identifying stamp of a refiner
approved by the exchange. In practice, however, most
contracts are rolled over or settled financially.
COMEX also offers investors options on its gold futures.
These give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to
buy (call option) or sell (put option) a specified
quantity of COMEX gold futures at a predetermined price by an
agreed date. Like futures contracts, buying gold options can
give the holder substantial leverage. COMEX options are
American-style, meaning they can be exercised at any time
up to expiration.
The over-the-counter market
The OTC market offers investors a further range of gold
products, including spot and forward contracts and
tailor-made structured products. However, because the entry
level is typically high, this market is dominated by
institutional players or ultra-high net worth individuals.
Investors wishing to use this channel should contact a
bullion bank.
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49
Gold coins and bars are classified as collectibles for tax
purposes. In retirement funds, the amount invested in
collectibles is usually considered to be distributed to you
in the year the investment takes place, meaning investors may
have to pay an additional 10% tax. However, there are
exceptions. This tax does not apply to precious metal bullion
investment products, which are defined as coins or bars
meeting minimum exchange purity requirements for contract
delivery (i.e. 99.5% purity for gold). All investment grade
bullion is eligible for inclusion in 401(K)s and Individual
Retirement Accounts (IRAs). The same applies to SPDR Gold
Shares, as the Internal Revenue Service treats the purchase
of the shares as an investment in the underlying asset, which
are solely London Good Delivery gold bars.
For long-term capital gains purposes, investments in the same
gold coins and bars are not exempt from the collectibles
category, nor are SPDR Gold Shares, and are subject to the
maximum capital gain rate of 28%. There is, therefore, an
anomaly in the way the IRS treats these gold coins and bars
and SPDR Gold Shares for retirement purposes and for capital
gains purposes. Legislation seeking to amend this, the Fair
Treatment for Precious Metals Investors Act, has been
introduced in Congress. If successful, the bill will also
exempt these coins and bars and SPDR Gold Shares from the
collectibles category for long-term capital gains purposes,
meaning they will be taxed at the same rate as investments in
stocks and mutual funds, which is currently 15%.
51
Related World Gold Council research
The following research reports can be downloaded from the
World Gold Councils website at:
http://www.research.gold.org/research/
Gold Investment Digest, Quarterly, by Natalie Dempster,
Juan Carlos Artigas and John Mulligan
Gold Demand
Trends, Quarterly, by Rozanna Wozniak and Louise Street
Gold as a Tactical Inflation hedge and Long-term Strategic
Asset, by Natalie Dempster and Juan Carlos Artigas.
Investing in Commodities Benefits, Risks and
Implementation: A Case Study on Missouri State Employees
Retirement System, by Natalie Dempster
Is Gold a Volatile Asset? By Rozanna Wozniak
What does a US recession imply for the Gold
Price? by Natalie Dempster
Investing in Gold: The Strategic Case, by Natalie
Dempster Gold as a Safe Haven, by Rhona OConnell
Commodity Prices and the Influence of the US Dollar,
by Nikos Kavalis.
Unit Convention
Troy ounce = 31.103 grams
Tonne = 32,151 troy ounces
Kilogram = 32.1507 troy ounces
Karat = gold purity in parts per 24
Glossary
Account allocated An account in which the clients metal
is individually identified as his, and physically segregated
from all the other gold in the vault; in the event of a
default by the holding bank, the investor becomes a secured
creditor.
Account unallocated An account in which the clients bars
are not specifically ring-fenced, and which may be cheaper
than an allocated account as some banks do not charge for
storage. The client carries higher counterparty risk,
however, as he is an unsecured creditor in the event of a
default by the holding bank.
53
American Option An option that may be exercised on any
date up to and including the expiry date.
Bar A typical gold product, either for trading or
accumulation. Bars come in a variety of shapes, weights and
purities. Different bars are favored in different parts of
the world.
Bull run A period of rising prices for a financial asset
Bullion Metal in the mass, usually uncoined gold in bars or
ingots (from the Old French boillion meaning froth on
boiling liquid)
Bullion coin A legal tender coin whose market price depends
on its gold content, rather than its rarity or face value.
Certificate Gold certificates are a method of holding gold
without taking delivery. Issued by individual banks they
confirm and individuals ownership while the bank holds the
metal on the clients behalf. The client thus saves on
storage and personal security issues, and gains liquidity
in terms of being able to sell portions of the holdings (if
need be) by simply telephoning the custodian.
COMEX The New York Commodity Exchange, now a division of
NYMEX, the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contracts
in COMEX gold market consists of 100 ounces each, and
the actively traded contracts are the even months of the
year.
Delivery The transfer of an asset from the seller to the
buyer. This does not necessarily involve physical
shipment but can be done on paper with the bullion
remaining in the vaults of a specified bank.
Doré A gold-silver alloy, an intermediate product from
certain gold mines.
Face Value The nominal value given to a legal tender coin or
currency (for example a 1oz Gold American Eagle coin has a
face value of $50, but will always be bought close to the
market price for a 1oz of gold).
54
Related World Gold Council research
Fineness Gold purity, usually expressed in parts per
thousand; thus 995 or two nines five is 995/1000 or 99.5%
pure. 995 was the highest purity to which gold could be
manufactured when good delivery (q.v.) was determined, but
for very high technology applications now is possible to
produce metal for up to 99.9999% purity.
Fix The London gold fixing (see: www.goldfixing.com) takes
place twice daily over the telephone and sets a price at
which all known orders to buy or sell gold on a spot basis
at the same time of the fix can be settled. The fix is
widely used as the benchmark for spot transactions
throughout the market. The five members of the fix meet at
10:30am and 3:00pm London time.
Futures contract An agreement to buy or sell a specific
amount of a commodity or financial instrument at a
particular price on a stipulated future date; the contact
can be sold before the settlement date. Futures contracts
are standardized and are traded on margin on futures
exchanges, such as the COMEX division of NYMEX, or the
Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM).
Gold Standard A monetary system based on convertibility
into gold; paper money backed and interchangeable with
gold.
Good delivery bar Also referred to as large bars, the
ingots that conform the London Good Delivery standard.
Good delivery standard The specification to which a gold bar
must conform in order to be acceptable on a certain market or
exchange. Good delivery for the London Bullion Market is the
internationally accredited good delivery standard. A good
delivery bar for London should weight between 350 and 430
ounces (gold content) of a minimum purity of 99.5% (two nines
five). Further specifications can be obtained from the LBMA.
Grain One of the earliest weight units used for measuring
gold. One grain is equivalent to 0.0648 grams.
Hedging The use of derivative instruments to protect
against price risk.
55
Karat Unit of fineness, scaled from 1 to 24, 24-karat gold
(or pure gold) has at least 999 parts pure gold per thousand;
18-karat gold has 750 parts pure gold and 250 parts alloy per
thousand, etc.
Kilo bar A bar weighing 1 kilogramapproximately
32.1507 troy ounces.
LBMA The London Bullion Market Association acts as the
coordinator for activities conducted on behalf of its
members and other participants of the London Bullion
Market, and it is the principal point of contact between
the market and its regulators.
Legal tender The coin or
currency which the national monetary authority declares to
be universally acceptable as a medium of exchange;
acceptable for instance in the discharge of debt.
Liquidity The quality possessed by a financial
instrument of being readily convertible into cash
without significant loss of value.
Margin A deposit required to be put up before
opening a derivative contract.
Numismatic Coins valued for their rarity, condition and
beauty beyond the intrinsic value of their metal content.
Generally, premiums for numismatic coins are higher than
for bullion coins.
OTC Over-the-counter, or principals contract. The OTC gold
market trades on a 24-hour per day continuous basis and
accounts for the bulk of global gold trading. Most OTC
trades are settled using gold stored in London, irrespective
of the country where the deal is actually transacted.
Settlement date The date on which a contract is scheduled
for delivery and payment. Spot settlement in the bullion
market is two days after the bargain has struck.
Spot price The price for spot delivery which, in the gold
market, is two days from the trade date.
Troy ounce The standard weight in which gold is quoted in
the international market, weighing 31.1035 grams. It was
named after the old French city of Troyes, where there was
an annual trading fair in mediaeval days and where this was
a unit of weight.
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SPDR®
GOLD TRUST has filed a registration statement (including a
prospectus) with the SEC for the offering to which this communication
relates. Before you invest, you should read the prospectus in that
registration statement and other documents the issuer has filed with
the SEC for more complete information about the Trust and this
offering. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on
the SEC Web site at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, the Trust or any
Authorized Participant will arrange to send you the prospectus if you
request it by calling toll free at 1-866-320-4053 or contacting State
Street Global Markets, LLC, One Lincoln Street, Attn.
SPDR®
Gold Shares, 30th Floor, Boston, MA 02111.