425
Filed by The Toronto-Dominion Bank
Pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act of 1933
and deemed filed pursuant to Rule 14a-6(b) under the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Subject Company: Commerce Bancorp, Inc.
SEC Registration Statement No.: 333-147304
The information presented, which includes a transcript from the Citi Financial Services Conference
on January 29, 2008, may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and comparable safe harbour provisions of applicable
Canadian legislation, including, but not limited to, statements relating to anticipated financial
and operating results, the companies plans, objectives, expectations and intentions, cost savings
and other statements, including words such as anticipate, believe, plan, estimate,
expect, intend, will, should, may, and other similar expressions. Such statements are
based upon the current beliefs and expectations of our management and involve a number of
significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from the results
anticipated in these forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause The Toronto-Dominion
Banks (the Bank) results to differ materially from those described in the forward looking
statements can be found in the Banks 2007 Annual Report on Form 40-F filed with the Securities and
Exchange Commission and available at the Securities and Exchange Commissions Internet site
(http://www.sec.gov). In addition to the factors found in the Banks 2007 Annual Report, the
following factors relating to the Commerce Bancorp, Inc. (Commerce) transaction, among others,
could also cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking
statements described earlier: the ability to obtain the approval of the transaction by Commerce
stockholders; the ability to realize the expected synergies resulting for the transaction in the
amounts or in the timeframe anticipated; the ability to integrate Commerces businesses into those
of TD Bank Financial Group in a timely and cost-efficient manner; and the ability to obtain
governmental approvals of the transaction or to satisfy other conditions to the transaction on the
proposed terms and timeframe.
The Bank and Commerce have filed with the SEC a Registration Statement on Form F-4 containing a
definitive proxy statement/prospectus that has been mailed to Commerce shareholders and each of the
companies plans to file with the SEC other documents regarding the proposed transaction.
Shareholders are encouraged to read the definitive proxy statement/prospectus regarding the
proposed transaction, as well as other documents filed with the SEC, because they contain important
information. Shareholders may obtain a free copy of the definitive proxy statement/prospectus, as
well as other filings containing information about the Bank and Commerce, without charge, at the
SECs Internet site (http://www.sec.gov). Copies of the definitive proxy statement/prospectus and
the filings with the SEC that are incorporated by reference in the definitive proxy
statement/prospectus can also be obtained, without charge, by directing a request to TD Bank
Financial Group, 66 Wellington Street West, Toronto, ON M5K 1A2, Attention: Investor Relations,
(416) 308-9030, or to Commerce Bancorp, Inc., Shareholder Relations, 1701 Route 70 East, Cherry
Hill, NJ 08034-5400, 1-888-751-9000.
The Bank, Commerce, their respective directors and executive officers and other persons may be
deemed to be participants in the solicitation of proxies in respect of the proposed transaction.
Information regarding the Banks directors and executive officers is available in its Annual Report
on Form 40-F for the year ended October 31, 2007, which was filed with the Securities and Exchange
Commission on November 29, 2007, and in its notice of annual meeting and proxy circular for its
most recent annual meeting, which was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February
23, 2007. Information regarding Commerces directors and executive officers is available in
Commerces proxy statement for its most recent annual meeting, which was filed with the Securities
and Exchange Commission on April 13, 2007. Other information regarding the participants in the
proxy solicitation and a description of their direct and indirect interests, by security holdings
or otherwise, are contained in the definitive proxy statement/prospectus and other relevant
materials filed with the SEC.
THE FOLLOWING IS A TRANSCRIPT FROM THE CITI FINANCIAL SERVICES CONFERENCE ON JANUARY 29, 2008.
TD BANK FINANCIAL GROUP
CITI FINANCIAL SERVICES CONFERENCE
JANUARY 29, 2008
DISCLAIMER
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TRANSCRIPT IS A TEXTUAL REPRESENTATION OF THE TORONTO-DOMINION
BANKS (THE BANK) PRESENTATION AT THE CITI FINANCIAL SERVICES CONFERENCE AND WHILE EFFORTS ARE
MADE TO PROVIDE AN ACCURATE TRANSCRIPTION, THERE MAY BE MATERIAL ERRORS, OMISSIONS, OR INACCURACIES
IN THE REPORTING OF THE SUBSTANCE OF THE CONFERENCE. IN NO WAY DOES THE BANK ASSUME ANY
RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS MADE BASED UPON THE INFORMATION PROVIDED ON
THE BANKS WEB SITE OR IN THIS TRANSCRIPT. USERS ARE ADVISED TO REVIEW THE CONFERENCE REPLAY ITSELF
AND THE BANKS SEC FILINGS BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS.
FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION
From time to time, the Bank makes written and oral forward-looking statements, including in this
transcript, in other filings with Canadian regulators or the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC), and in other communications. In addition, the Banks senior management may make
forward-looking statements orally to analysts, investors, representatives of the media and others.
All such statements are made pursuant to the safe harbour provisions of the U.S. Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and applicable Canadian securities legislation.
Forward-looking statements include, among others, statements regarding the Banks objectives and
targets for 2008 and beyond, and strategies to achieve them, the outlook for the Banks business
lines, and the Banks anticipated financial performance. The economic assumptions for 2008 for each
of our business segments are set out in the 2007 Annual Report under the headings Economic
Outlook and Business Outlook and Focus for 2008, as updated in the subsequently filed quarterly
Reports to Shareholders. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words such as
will, should, believe, expect, anticipate, intend, estimate, plan, may and
could. By their very nature, these statements require us to make assumptions and are subject to
inherent risks and uncertainties, general and specific, which may cause actual results to differ
materially from the expectations expressed in the forward-looking statements. Some of the factors -
many of which are beyond our control that could cause such differences include: credit, market
(including equity and commodity), liquidity, interest rate, operational, reputational, insurance,
strategic, foreign exchange, regulatory, legal and other risks discussed in the management
discussion and analysis section of the Banks 2007 Annual Report and in other regulatory filings
made in Canada and with the SEC; general business and economic conditions in Canada, the U.S. and
other countries in which the Bank conducts business, as well as the effect of changes in monetary
policy in those jurisdictions and changes in the foreign exchange rates for the currencies of those
jurisdictions; the degree of competition in the markets in which the Bank operates, both from
established competitors and new entrants; the accuracy and completeness of information the Bank
receives on customers and counterparties; the development and introduction of new products and
services in markets; developing new distribution channels and realizing increased revenue from
these channels; the Banks ability to execute its strategies, including its integration, growth and
acquisition strategies and those of its subsidiaries, particularly in the U.S.; changes in
accounting policies and methods the Bank uses to report its financial condition, including
uncertainties associated with critical accounting assumptions and estimates; the effect of applying
future accounting changes; global capital market activity; the Banks ability to attract and retain
key executives; reliance on third parties to provide components of the Banks business
infrastructure; the failure of third parties to comply with their obligations to the Bank or its
affiliates as such obligations relate to the handling of personal information; technological
changes; the use of new technologies in unprecedented ways to defraud the Bank or its customers;
legislative and regulatory developments; change in tax laws; unexpected judicial or regulatory
proceedings; continued negative impact of the U.S. securities litigation environment; unexpected
changes in consumer spending and saving habits; the adequacy of the Banks risk management
framework, including the risk that the Banks risk management models do not take into account all
relevant factors; the possible impact on the Banks businesses of international conflicts and
terrorism; acts of God, such as earthquakes; the effects of disease or illness on local, national
or international economies; and the effects of disruptions to public infrastructure, such as
transportation, communication, power or water supply. A substantial amount of the Banks business
involves making loans or otherwise committing resources to specific companies, industries or
countries. Unforeseen events affecting such borrowers, industries or countries could have a
material adverse effect on the Banks financial results, businesses, financial condition or
liquidity. The preceding list is not exhaustive of all possible factors. Other factors could also
adversely affect the Banks results. For more information, see the discussion starting on page 59
of the Banks 2007 Annual Report. All such factors should be considered carefully when making
decisions with respect to the Bank, and undue reliance should not be placed on the Banks
forward-looking statements. The Bank does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements,
whether written or oral, that may be made from time to time by or on its behalf.
In addition to the factors described above, the following factors relating to the Commerce Bancorp,
Inc. (Commerce) transaction, among others, could also cause actual results to differ materially
from those expressed in the forward-looking statements described on the earlier slide: the ability
to obtain the approval of the transaction by Commerce stockholders; the ability to realize the
expected synergies resulting for the transaction in the amounts or in the timeframe anticipated;
the ability to integrate Commerces businesses into those of TD Bank Financial Group in a timely
and cost-efficient manner; and the ability to obtain governmental approvals of the transaction or
to satisfy other conditions to the transaction on the proposed terms and timeframe.
The proposed merger transaction involving the Bank and Commerce will be submitted to Commerces
shareholders for their consideration. The Bank and Commerce have filed with the SEC a Registration
Statement on Form F-4 containing a definitive proxy statement/prospectus and each of the companies
plans to file with the SEC other documents regarding the proposed transaction. Shareholders are
encouraged to read the definitive proxy statement/prospectus regarding the proposed transaction, as
well as other documents filed with the SEC because they contain important information. Shareholders
may obtain a free copy of the definitive proxy statement/prospectus, as well as other filings
containing information about the Bank and Commerce, without charge, at the SECs Internet site
(http://www.sec.gov). Copies of the definitive proxy statement/prospectus and the filings with the
SEC that will be incorporated by reference in the definitive proxy statement/prospectus can also be
obtained, without charge, by directing a request to TD Bank Financial Group, 66 Wellington Street
West, Toronto, ON M5K 1A2, Attention: Investor Relations, (416) 308-9030, or to Commerce Bancorp,
Inc., Shareholder Relations, 1701 Route 70 East, Cherry Hill, NJ 08034-5400, 1-888-751-9000.
The Bank, Commerce, their respective directors and executive officers and other persons may be
deemed to be participants in the solicitation of proxies in respect of the proposed transaction.
Information regarding the Banks directors and executive officers is available in its Annual Report
on Form 40-F for the year ended October 31, 2007, which was filed with the Securities and Exchange
Commission on November 29, 2007, and its notice of annual meeting and proxy circular for its most
recent annual meeting, which was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 23,
2007. Information regarding Commerces directors and executive officers is available in Commerces
proxy statement for its most recent annual meeting, which was filed with the Securities and
Exchange Commission on April 13, 2007. Other information regarding the participants in the proxy
solicitation and a description of their direct and indirect interests, by security holdings or
otherwise, are contained in the definitive proxy statement/prospectus and other relevant materials
filed with the SEC.
CORPORATE PARTICIPANT
Ed Clark President & CEO, TD Bank Financial Group
PRESENTATION
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Thank you, and thank you for showing up. I saw that I was at the end of a long day, and Im sure
all the other presentations youve seen will be a lot more exciting than mine. Im afraid mines
going to be the same story Ive told for the last five years.
We set out five years ago to build a company that was a franchise play, that believed that we could
grow our revenues and our profits faster than our competition without going out the risk curve, and
that we could avoid the major mishaps that destroys shareholder value for bank investors around the
world. And we ended up having that and doing that successfully.
When we look out at 2008, I think we see a much slower growth environment, but we continue to
believe that we will be a positive outlier. So now Im supposed to move this along here, give you
the usual statement. The only thing I would say in addition to the usual bump here, obviously
were still in the process of closing out the Commerce deal, and so people should try to read all
the materials with respect to Commerce, where we put out our position and weve been regularly
reporting any statements and filling them as part of that process.
So whats our story? Really, pretty basic story we want to be a North American bank, but we
clearly have an enormous beachhead in Canada. I always say to people, well, if you dont buy me,
buy one of the Canadian banks. Its been a terrific story in Canada. The economy has been a good
place. Weve managed to solve many of the structural problems that I think plagued the U.S. fiscal
situation. And weve had very good growth.
Im not sure, though, that its realistic to assume that Canada can permanently decouple itself
from the American environment, and Ill get into that later, but it still remains a very attractive
banking environment, and I believe that we are the most successful bank in Canada.
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Secondly, we run a lower-risk model. In our wholesale business, we consciously went through and
took out the long-tail risk. We reoriented our wholesale business to be a franchise play, pretty
plain vanilla play. As an institution, we dont believe in taking interest rate risks. We dont
have any particular insights on which way interest rates are going. We hate negative convexity and
we take it out of all the books of the businesses that we acquire. And then weve been
systematically shifting our business mix towards more retail, from less wholesale. In 1999, TD
Bank had 55% of its earnings from wholesale, and this year about 15% of our business will come from
wholesale.
Thirdly, as I said, we try to run a franchise that grows earnings continuously. We believe in
growth, but we dont believe in buying that growth through extending out the risk curve. And I
think well take you through some numbers we have a pretty strong track record that in fact
were able to do this.
And, finally, we are building what we believe is a very successful and differentiated franchise in
the United States that will produce growth, as in fact our growth prospects in Canada slow down.
So, core principles that we run the business with, were franchise builders. I keep on saying what
I want to be able to do is go away on a holiday and come back two weeks later and find that weve
grown more earnings, and that, in fact, any one of my leaders ought to be able to do that by
building franchises.
One of the questions that I constantly ask people is explain to me why you win the ties. If the
answer is just you work harder and youre smarter, I dont believe it. How do you actually
institutionalize the competitive advantage that sustainably means you are going to take market
share from your competitors?
Secondly, relentlessly focus on the customer, every part of the organization. Start with the
customer and come back in instead of sitting around at head office and going out to the customer.
We embody that because we go out and measure how satisfied our customers are every single night in
every single channel of the business and every single employee from me down is paid on what our
customers think of how well we performed.
Thirdly, as I say, what I want is growth without going out the risk curve, and so we do that
systematically in all our businesses. We analyze our risks, we assign economic capital, we measure
economic profit and we have clear paradigms that are right through the organization of the kind of
risks that we want to take. They have to be understandable, transparent and liquid, and thats why
we avoid some of the mistakes that other people have made.
Fourthly, were operators. Were not financial engineers, were operators, and we put a huge focus
on, in fact, proving out that were better operators, which means that you have to be able to
constantly grow your revenue faster than your expenses. And you dont manage your expenses by fire
drills. You manage your expenses by looking ahead and saying what do I have to do in order to
remain competitive? And how can I fundamentally reengineer my processes to in fact improve
productivity?
One of the things that we believe firmly is that when you do that you actually improve customer
satisfaction, so there is no tension between having high customer satisfaction scores and good
efficiency ratios.
And, finally, you have to reinvest. Our business plans and our leaders know in their business
plans that they cant steal the future in order to make the numbers today. You have to make the
numbers today, but you have to do it in a way that builds value into the future.
This gives you a quick summary of our business mix. As you can see, still overwhelmingly and this
number will shift a bit next year, but TD Canada Trust, our personal commercial bank in Canada, is
still the dominant source of earnings for us, followed by the wealth management.
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When we talk Canadian retail, we talk the sum of TD Canada Trust and TD Wealth Management in
Canada. Then in the U.S. we have TD Ameritrade and TD Banknorth, and then we have our security
dealers, TD Securities. Last year, we earned about $4.2 billion. Our earnings were up 24%, well
in excess of our 7% to 10% earnings goal. Dividends increased 19%.
We have a philosophy of increasing our dividends in line with the growth, underlying growth, in our
earnings. We believe the best way to have a growing dividend stream is not by moving up your
payout ratio, but by moving up your growth rate.
This gives you a feeling of how we performed over the last five years. Our earnings per share have
increased at 21% per annum. Last year, they increased 24%. You can see the comparison to the
Canadian peers. What Ive tried to do is break out to get a look at what is the underlying
earnings, because I think there is a difference in our underlying earnings, and then, of course,
you have most of the competitors, in fact all of our competitors, have had to take writedowns this
year. We did not. And so you can see, even when you remove the effects of the writedown, we were
a better-performing company than our competition.
One of our features is that we earn more for every dollar of risk we take. We do that by how we
manage within the business, and we do that because of our business mix. So in Canada we earn about
40% more for every dollar of risk, in terms of North American average, about 75%. The consequence
of that, of course, is that we grow our regulatory capital faster than our competition because we
earn a very high rate of return. You only have to apply a kind of leveraged number to the 280 to
know what kind of return our operating returns are inherently in our business. So we are a high
ROE business, because of our better risk management.
I think clearly the dramatic story in Canada, we have five big bank industry. Historically, no one
bank has been able to outperform the other in the retail space. Any market share loss is regarded
as a strategic loss and is resisted ferociously. In fact, though, over the last five years, our
outperformance, frankly, has been staggering, surprising to me, and certainly surprising, I think,
to the marketplace.
Whats remarkable is both the level of earnings growth we have and the differentiation between our
earnings growth year in and year out and that of our competitors. People look at market share I
would say really for investors, the only market share that matters to you is profit market share,
and we moved up from in 2002, a profit market share of about 21% to 2007, 25%, a remarkable shift
in the share of profits in the Canadian retail space.
Why were we able to do that? Well, we just have a great franchise. We clearly have very strong
market positions in all the retail products, number one, number two position. We have great
customer service. We own the convenience service space. So we have the best locations for our
branches. We open them for the longest hours 50% longer hours than our competition, and we give
unbelievable service. If we are measured by the Synovate survey or JD Power and you can pick any
external survey you want, all our internal surveys, and we know all the internal surveys of our
competitors, will tell you clearly were far and away, we give the best service possible.
We constantly win awards. Were seen as having the strongest brand. So we have great market
position, great convenience and great service. All this, as I indicated, turns into really a
tremendous source of earnings. So we move from earning $1.2 billion to $2.75 billion. Compounded,
that means we grew our earnings at 17% in the space, 16% for TDCT our personal commercial bank, and
26% compounded growth for our Wealth Management area.
Weve said publicly at the year end that we do see that number slowing down. We think this space
historically should be a 7% to 10% earnings growth space, and we think with the slowdown in the
U.S. economy and its ultimate impact on, particularly, Ontario and the high Canadian dollar that we
are going
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to be challenged in this space. And we also are going to be challenged on the expense front,
because we put in place a number of initiatives this year whose expense implications roll through
to next year, so we see that number coming down closer to the 7% to 10% growth rate. But we have
set our target next year in this space to try to reach as close as we can to $3 billion in
earnings.
The transformation of TD Securities, our wholesale business, has really been quite remarkable. We
were able in early 2002, 2003, get out of an extensive loan book across the world that we didnt
believe added value to the shareholders. And then beginning in 2005 and 2006, we exited the
structured product areas that we believed were fundamentally a flawed business to be in and got out
of that business because we thought it was inherently a difficult business and was going to cause
problems eventually.
And we turned our attention to building TD Securities more into a plain vanilla franchise play.
You can see the impact of that shift, where we moved ourselves up dramatically in all the league
tables, as a franchise play. And we focused the dealer on saying, why dont we run a dealer that
has sustainable franchise earnings and thinks about how you make economic profit for the
shareholders. We have about $3 billion in capital in that business. We would target a rate of
return of about 20% on that $3 billion, trying to run it in a way in which you dont take a lot of
tail risk. We have a fairly limited loan book, about $10 billion in drawn loans. We are active
buyers of credit protection. We have about $2.5 billion of credit protection, so we like to take
out the concentration risk and manage that on a very systematic basis.
As it happens, we have been earning significantly more than that. So we earned about $834 million
last year. We believe that number has to come down in the context of the capital markets today,
where the markets are slowing down. But we still believe that we will earn solid in-the-20s kind
of rates of return in the wholesale dealer, despite the deterioration in the environment thats
going on, so truly a remarkable business story.
This is a slide that we put up every quarter to basically say, werent there, didnt do that,
didnt involve in it. These were not accidents. These were conscious business decisions made by
the organization because the philosophy in the organization is well embedded in the organization.
Its not just what Ed Clark thinks, its what the organization thinks. Its philosophical view of
how you make money for shareholders and how we want to make money for shareholders.
One of the things that we constantly say is dont worry about how other people make money. We know
how we know how to make money, and we know what we promised the shareholders, and I think the most
important thing for us is that we deliver on what we tell you to do, not that we come back and say,
oops, we forgot to mention that we were just trying this little game here on the side and it blew
up in our face. And so there are other people who have a different philosophical view, they like
to take different risks than us. You wont find us taking those risks and everyone within the
organization knows it.
So weve made a big move in the last two or three years into the United States. Weve taken two
positions, one in the wealth management space, by translating TD Waterhouse into TD Ameritrade and
then buying Banknorth and now buying Commerce. This has been a major move for us. We believe that
we can build in the United States a franchise thats a different franchise, that reflects the
strengths that weve demonstrated in Canada. We reject fundamentally that American banking is so
different, that Americans dont like service and they dont like convenience. We dont believe
that and all our evidence is that the same things that drive Canadians to choose TD Canada Trust
and TD Waterhouse will drive Americans. And so far our experience seems to be correct.
This is an area where by bringing our skills together with the skills that weve managed to acquire
in the United States, we think this can be a growth area. Last year, we earned about $600 million
in retail in the U.S. We publicly again said that we would like to try to earn $1 billion this
year in the U.S. and that that number will continue to grow in 2009.
5
Clearly, what were trying to do is bring this together, and were bringing it together on a North
American basis. And so we want to be more than just a Canadian bank that owns a U.S. bank. In
fact, what we want to do is transform ourselves into a North American bank, that the value
proposition that we offer in the United States is the same value proposition that we offer in
Canada, which is convenience and service and an ability to cross-sell through the Company, across
the Company, to meet more of the customers needs. In other words, a more integrated approach.
Thats what we think we will be able to achieve.
Together, I think when you put it and take a look at a North American basis, we now believe we are
in the top 10 of the banks on a North American business. We do not think we face scale problems in
the United States and with the Commerce acquisition we have significant market share in the key
markets in which we want to operate. And so we do not feel that in fact were scale challenged in
the region where were operating.
So, quick summary, what are we? Were a North American franchise, very strong franchise in Canada,
heavy focus on the retail side, a dominant franchise in Canada thats proven success in taking
market share. We know how to grow earnings without going out the risk curve. We have a wholesale
bank thats transparent, easy to understand, where the risks are clear to everybody. Its a
franchise play and were building a strong and growing platform in the United States.
Thank you very much. Ill pause and take questions.
QUESTION AND ANSWER
Unidentified Audience Member
(Inaudible question microphone inaccessible).
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Right, so I think our outlook is that Canada will not decouple itself from the United States. It
may be that western Canada will continue to be reasonably decoupled, but even there we see some
signs of slowdown. But certainly Ontario and Quebec, were looking at a kind of 1% real growth
number. And obviously, Ontario, in particular, is shedding significantly manufacture jobs.
We do think that will impact our overall businesses, although in a direct sense I would say our
volumes remain very good. The main impact that weve had on our domestic businesses is a prime/BA
spread narrowing, which does impact our retail businesses significantly. But we havent actually
seen if youre going widget counts yet any slowdown coming through. And, frankly, in terms of NPAs
and loan losses, we havent seen any impact.
So were sitting here, the guns of August, waiting for the war to begin and anticipating it and
Ive been frankly over a year ago, I announced it was coming and all I ended up doing was
cutting expenses probably a year in advance. But I do think this time it really is coming and we
are going to have a significant slowdown.
Unidentified Speaker
I have a question.
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Theres one at the back there, too.
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Unidentified Audience Member
The target that you might potentially look at in the U.S., what would be some of the criteria that
come in in terms of geography or the kind of franchise that you may or may not look at? And, B,
given Commerces very unique retail model, what would be your strategy in terms of putting
potential franchise together with Commerce, or it would be managed a different bank?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
So I wont say that we wouldnt do further acquisitions in the United States. I wouldnt see us
doing them rapidly or soon, but I dont think we need to do acquisitions in the United States. So
I think right now in the banking space we think weve acquired an organic growth engine. We think
the most important thing is to button that model down. We obviously are going to have to get the
merger with Banknorth, get the economies of scale out of there.
But most importantly is to extend some of the positive features of Commerce to the rest of the
Banknorth platform, and at the same time instill in the Commerce platform perhaps a greater
attention to profitability and the ability to build out wealth management and cross-sell the
customer more. And, at the same time, continue to grow the branch system, so they grew their
branches last year, despite all the issues that they had to deal with, by 43 branches. And so if
we can continue to grow their branches organically, thats a pretty full plate, I would say.
I think in terms of acquisitions, I think as the year goes on then we probably would look more
actively, but youd want to be either looking at tuck-ins where youre really trying to buy
customer bases to load into a very good operating model, or we may look at asset-gathering
capabilities. So if you said over the five-year horizon, not one-year horizon, we do recognize
that we have right now asset concentration in our franchise in the U.S.
And so youd like to have a more diversified asset base to match a localized deposit base. But
thats a tricky Im not going to rush into that kind of decision. So Id say right now were
not feeling we dont feel a big need to make acquisitions, and, frankly, visibility on the
downside risk of acquisitions is pretty limited.
Unidentified Audience Member
Thanks. Just following up on your comments about Canadian economy slowing down, if we add onto
that the stock markets in Canada as well as the U.S. having a more difficult year to start for your
wealth management business, the expense increases that you mentioned that are already baked into
the cake and, of course, a slower U.S. earnings profile for your 15% U.S. retail and then adding in
Commerce, how do you get to or how do we get to numbers of mid-single-digit increase in earnings
this year versus last year on a per-share basis.
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
How are we going to get there? Well, were going to work hard and so I dont think theres any
doubt that if the financial markets stay the way they are today, then the impact on TD Securities
is going to be at the higher end rather than lower end of what we look at, and thats probably the
entity that gets most directly affected. It gets affected because of the capital market activity
that isnt there. But it also gets affected because it was the beneficiary of significant security
gains and those in the latter half of 2008 I think will disappear if in fact we have a very weak
stock market.
7
And, obviously, a weaker stock market directly affects our Wealth Management business, because so
much of our earnings are directly off the asset value. So I think the team is definitely going to
feel challenged to stay in the 7% to 10% earnings if in fact the market stays as bad as it is
today.
I guess I live in a world that we said originally we were going to grow 7% to 10% a year. Weve
done dramatically better than that. Last year, we did 23% earnings per share growth. I can live
with a world where if we end up below target this year in earnings growth, I can live with that
world, but clearly what were going to try to do is manage against achieving where we want to get
to. But there are certain things you cant outrun, and we cant outrun the fact that if the market
stays where it is, its going to be tough to do that.
Unidentified Audience Member
Well, if we just assume for a moment that the markets are flat for the rest of the year and if we
assume that, lets say, the Ontario economy grows at 1% for the year, do you think you can still
grow 7% to 10% in EPS this year?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Yes, I think what Im saying is if the markets stay this flat and 1%, were going to have to work
hard to stay in that range. I think we indicated at the end of last year that in a reasonable
market we would be I mean, theres a natural slowing down in our growth rate anyway. I mean,
coming off when you have such a good year, its harder to have another great year.
So if you take TD Securities in particular, if you look at our third quarter where we blew out the
lights in the third quarter because of how we were positioned, its just very difficult to grow
earnings from that third-quarter level mathematically. And so we were saying that we were going to
be in the lower end of the 7% to 10% range and just like Mr. Bernankes view today would be
slightly worse than it was at the end of the calendar year, my view would be that its going to be
harder than it was when we gave our quarter-end report.
Unidentified Speaker
Anyone else, questions?
Ed, maybe you could talk about how you might what sort of strategy youre going to use to bridge
the gap between the Commerce customer and the Banknorth customer and how you plan to leverage the
TD Ameritrade platform with the new entity.
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Im not sure that the customers differ. They are different. I think they definitely were
different models. Banknorth is more a community bank. Commerce is an urban bank, so I think there
are differences. And so in extending some of the if you can call it the TD Canada Trust model
or the Commerce model in the Banknorth, we were extending the hours already in TD Banknorth, so we
have 260 branches where were running the extended hours. And the impact of those was more
dramatic, frankly, than weve ever seen in Canada.
So I think we find that the customers respond to exactly the same thing, but I think the economics
of what an extended-hour world will look like might well be different in some parts of the
Banknorth franchise.
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In the case of the Commerce, in our view correctly, they say within a certain marketing zone we
want to have the same hours, like I see banks run different hours in different branches in the same
city and I say, you think people walk around with a little card because they know where every
branch will be open at what hour? They dont do that, and so I think you have to have a brand
presence. But its not obvious that in northern Maine your brand presence has to be exactly the
same as it would be in downtown Boston or downtown Manhattan. So I think as we extend it into
Banknorth, we will tweak the model to whats the appropriate extended market, but the fundamentals
of having better hours and better service I think will be the same throughout North America, so
that all 2,000 of our branches look and feel the same.
Then, I think we do want to bring to Commerce and Banknorth, we, right now in Canada we have
very, very strong market share in the discount brokerage business. We originate about 70% of that
business directly in our retail branch. We think we know how to do that, and we think we should
take TD Ameritrade and put it into, again, our major urban center branches in the United States and
offer that product directly as a product to those consumers.
And so I think thats a great product to add to our consumer, and around that we will build a whole
wealth management offering, both a high-end offering, the sort of offering you can do at the side
counter and then, as I say, open accounts directly to TD Ameritrade.
And then I think the other thing that we want to explore is whether or not we can move further down
the personal lending side, because cross-selling that customer base right now, the U.S. bank
branches tend to be pretty mono-line, single product, whereas were used to cross-selling the
customer and we think thats very profitable to do, but it also anchors the customer more clearly
into your network.
And so youre not exploiting the advantages of your convenience and service offering if youre not
doing that. So, again, we will be rolling that into both Banknorth and Commerce simultaneously.
Unidentified Audience Member
Hi. Do you have any counterparty risk or mono-line risk or credit default swap risk that youd
like to share with us? And also, what are you thinking about for NIM margin next year.
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Sorry, I didnt hear the last
Unidentified Speaker
NIM, NIM, net interest margin.
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Net interest margin. Let me just deal with the last one. The way we tend to look at it is not at
a bank-wide level. All our numbers are done by businesses, because an average for TD Bank
Financial Group, which is the average for Commerce and Banknorth and TD CT and the wholesale
business doesnt make any sense. So in terms of our personal commercial bank, weve been running
around, in Canada, around 300 basis points. We think theres some slight downward pressure on
that. Theres mix changes that were growing our lending business faster than our deposit business
that tends to put slight downward pressure on that, plus, as I mentioned earlier, the prime/BA
spread coming in. So that would be the main factor on the NIM.
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In terms of mono-lines, we never relied on mono-lines. We dont believe in two things in TD. We
dont believe in mono-line insurance and we dont believe in relying on rating agencies to do your
credit underwriting, so those have been two sort of fundamental pillars to us, and so we dont have
any assets whose valuations depended on mono-line insurance. And so I forget what the other
question
Unidentified Audience Member
Just any other kind of counterparties youre worried about now.
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
So I think the answer to that, I always hate to say no, but what you find is in most of these
situations theyre all collateralized. For every one that you have a big exposure, theyre either
sovereigns who wont collateralize, so the World Bank or someone like that, or you collateralize
them. So were not particularly fussed by counterparty.
I think the situations where you do worry, at least I worry but thats just I worry, thats what
I spend all my time doing, is that if a major financial institution collapsed, you may get your
trades back, but then youre going to be probably operating in a market thats in disarray. And
so, yes, what you will have collateralized is what you get out of that trade for at the time the
collapse occurred. But now you have to get reestablished in that trade and youre going to take
some hits if you have a complete disarray in the market.
So thats what I would say is but that would be a pretty bad world for everybody at that point.
But, no, we dont have counterparty risk that I worry about.
Unidentified Audience Member
Ed, I was wondering if you could talk about your latest thoughts on the BCE deal and how youre
thinking about your exposure sort of into that, [underneath] that deal?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Well, I dont want to keep repeating myself, but Im completely comfortable with it. I dont spend
actually a lot of hours on this. Maybe youll get worried that I dont, but I dont. Our debt
exposure to that, we are required to mark it to market. Weve been marking it to market all the
way along the line, and we mark it to a mark that says if I had to press the button and get out of
it, I can get out of it. And thats been in all these earnings numbers that you see up on the
screen. And so I dont think that the fundamentals of Bell Canada have changed in the last six
months. The only thing thats changed is the capital markets and so when youre underwriting a
risk I guess philosophically, and thats why we didnt get into some of these issues, our view
is that if you underwrite something you ought to be prepared to hold it.
And, frankly, if you want to be a sponsor of a commercial paper, you ought to be prepared to hold
it and you ought not to put your customers into something that you wouldnt hold. So we have these
sort of fundamental views, and so when we looked at Bell, we said, okay, would we be prepared to
hold this piece of paper? And the answer is yes. Would I forever want to hold it in this
concentration? The answer is no. But if Im prepared to mark it to market in a way would I get
out, I can make that decision when I want to make that decision.
So we remain comfortable with that deal and so I dont think the fundamentals of that deal have
changed at all.
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Unidentified Audience Member
Youve got such a great competitive position in Canada. And I think its safe to say that your
experience with Banknorth has maybe been a little bit disappointing. From what I can tell, the
returns on that investment have been kind of mid single digit. And now youre effectively doubling
down in the U.S. by paying over 20 times earnings for a bank that hasnt grown its earnings in four
years.
Can you help us reconcile what youre doing in the U.S. with the unbelievable returns you make in
Canada? It doesnt make a lot of sense from the standpoint of allocating capital to the
highest-return opportunities for you.
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
Right, great question. Its something, of course, we spend a lot of time on. We have unbelievable
operating rates of return. So on an incremental basis, for operating investments, you would
obviously allocate every dollar you can to Canada, and we do. So we dont starve those businesses
at all for capital. But the fact is I cant make acquisitions in Canada at there arent that
many to do, and so I dont have a place for that capital. And so the real issue would be, should I
buy back my shares with that capital? Im a major, major shareholder, and so I look at that pretty
seriously. Or do I actually believe that I can replicate what Im doing in Canada, redeploy that
capital and get a return for shareholders that over the medium term, not in the first year, but
over the medium term will be better than if I bought back my shares?
And thats the test that we put ourselves to. Thats why we are absolutely rigorous in reporting
to you what the ROIC is on that investment, so you can hold us accountable. We dont do funny
stuff with those numbers. We lay them out. We take all the goodwill, written off, not amortized,
put it out there, add it up and say thats what its cost us so far. And so we have the discipline
of saying thats the number weve got to climb over.
But I guess this will sound maybe cocky, and I dont mean it in a cocky sense, but we do have a
superior operating model. Americans want that same model. Commerce proves that model is there. I
think they have a phenomenal franchise, but I think they can be a better franchise with some of the
things that we can add onto them. And I think theres an opportunity here to make a lot of money
in the United States. So I wouldnt be betting my personal net worth on this if I didnt think it
was a good investment.
It doesnt mean that you dont stumble, you dont hit the toe and hit your knee while youre doing
it, but I actually believe strongly that the only way you actually build competitive advantage is
by competing, and so by getting out there and doing these things and driving on and working away at
the model and sometimes you do have to relearn some things. I think we have learned some things.
But they reinforce our view, frankly, and my management team as a whole all of whom are big
equity holders are unbelievably supportive of saying we can do this, we can redefine retail
banking in the United States. Thats what were going to try to prove to our investors and to
ourselves.
Unidentified Speaker
Theres some behind you, questions.
Unidentified Audience Member
How do you think about your Ameritrade investment, and are you interested in making further
acquisitions in kind of the online space. There are obviously some distressed, kind of
quasi-distressed opportunities there.
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Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
This is asking about Ameritrade. Well, I love the investment. I think its rare that you get an
investment thats great strategically and also enormously successful financially and so clearly
moving Waterhouse into there has been a wonderful deal. I think some things have come our way in
terms of now reducing this to a three-horse race and so I think thats a very positive thing for
us. Were the dominant transaction player now in the world, frankly, between what we do in Canada
and in Europe with Waterhouse and what TD Ameritrade does in the United States.
But we still have a big business challenge I think in TD Ameritrade to transform it into an asset
gatherer. Because in the long run I think you want to do that. I think if you take a look at our
numbers, look at the last call that Joe Moglia had, we are actually frankly surprised how fast this
is moving. So we have had enormous success this year in gathering assets and transforming our
retail branches, TD Ameritrade retail branches.
As to acquisitions, were still in the market for assets, but what we wont do is change our
business model. As you know, theres been a pretty open discussion about TD Ameritrade. We took a
view last year we took a view for the last four years that we think a pure brokerage model that
gets the benefit of using the TD Bank balance sheet and product capability without expense, without
capital, without risk, is an unbelievable deal for the TD Ameritrade shareholders, but since were
TD Ameritrade, were happy to give them that deal, stick to the business of being a pure brokerage
play. And so if we bought something, we would have to stay within that model.
Unidentified Speaker
I think we have one last question over here. You had a question? No? The same thing. Anyone
else? No? Oh, behind you.
Unidentified Audience Member
It seems like in Canada theres been some resurfacing of potential bank merger talks and maybe some
push coming from the industry, but do you think thats gaining any traction with politicians there?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
In Canada?
Unidentified Audience Member
Yes, is that story changing at all?
Ed Clark TD Bank Financial Group President & CEO
I dont think so. I guess net, Id say theres always a possibility. I think if the government of
Canada was faced with a situation where they thought that a financial institution had real
strategic viability problems they might be prepared to move.
But I would say in the current atmosphere and a minority government, its not a particular popular
position. And so I think were spending our energies on growing the bank. But obviously, if it
turned out there was we sensed a mood change that said, well, theyre prepared to contemplate
something, wed be there as fast as everybody else. But I dont see it for the foreseeable future.
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Unidentified Speaker
Okay, thank you very much, Ed. Thanks.
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