Move over, Russian President Vladimir Putin. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may be the worlds’ new nuclear villain in 2023. He’s on a wild rush to build nuclear missiles to hit the South Korea, Japan and even the United States. And he’s out to provoke South Korea.
Five North Korean drones "swung through the South's airspace for five hours" on Dec. 26, according to the Korea Times. They were chased by 20 planes and helicopters from South Korea. South Koreans are used to the North’s bellicosity, but this was so embarrassing that President Yoon Suk-yeol sent South Korean drones into North Korea’s airspace and just announced a $440 million air defense upgrade.
This was not inevitable. Yes, North Korea built up its missile and nuclear arsenal in the Obama years. Then after tense times in 2017, Kim Jong Un backed off. Missile tests stopped cold in 2018 as then-President Donald Trump engaged him with personal diplomacy and tempting potential real estate deals. It was worth a try, and it paid off. North Korea did not conduct an advanced long-range test from late 2017 until early 2022.
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Now, Kim Jong Un has conducted nearly 70 missile shots this year alone. South Korea is "grappling" with asking the United States to bring tactical nuclear weapons back to South Korea. Signs indicate North Korea may also be ready for another nuclear weapons test.
What happened? Certainly, Kim got mad when South Korea elected a new, harder-line government back in May. But there’s more to it.
Kim Jong Un has gone over to the Russia-China alliance and is playing a completely new game. He’s selling back artillery and rocket shells to Russia, likely via the train route crossing the tiny 11-mile sliver of border between Russia and North Korea. Experts believe Kim is aiming for a full nuclear triad of land-based missiles, submarines and aircraft. He may believe brandishing sophisticated nuclear weapons will force others to lift international sanctions on North Korea. Sure, that doesn’t make sense, but with Russia and China supporting Kim Jong Un, he may think he can pull it off.
Kim issued a "new nuclear law" in September declaring he would never give up nuclear weapons – and adding the new twist that North Korea might use its own nukes right away if it detected signs of an attack. This boldness is a big change for him and reflects his backing from Russia and China. Back in 2017, China wanted to North Korea to damp down tensions. But after the U.S. imposed well-deserved tariffs, it looks like China decided having North Korea needle the U.S. was just fine.
North Korea’s test program still has a number of technical difficulties. But the more they test, the more they learn.
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All the tension prompted Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to state again that "any nuclear attack against the United States or its allies and partners, including the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons, is unacceptable and will result in the end of the Kim regime." Austin said that during a Nov. 3 meeting with South Korea’s defense minister, with an American B-52 and B-1 bomber in the background. Just so the message was very clear.
Still, as 2023 begins, North Korea and China are at the center of a nuclear arms build-up never before seen in this region.
What can the U.S. do?
Support allies, place the best missile defenses possible at key points in the Pacific, including Guam, and continue to build up our interceptors in Alaska and California. Fortunately, the U.S. has West Coast interceptors designed to knock out a rogue North Korean threat by hitting missiles at the mid-point of their flight from North Korea to the USA. Alaska has 44 interceptors and during the COVID-19 pandemic, they completed sites for 20 more. In California, there are four interceptor sites at Vandenberg AFB on the central coast.
Despite all this, expect a 2023 to bring fresh dangers from North Korea. Kim Jong Un, like other bad actors, hasn’t forgotten the debacle of Afghanistan and how it showed the Biden administration’s military indecisiveness. With North Korea helping Russia, a victory on the battlefield for Ukraine is truly of global importance.
