It’s decision time for America’s remaining voters. And that decision is turning red.
The Democrats gave up on confronting the issues other than abortion and instead had a strategy rolled out by the president himself to paint the opposition with the broad brush of "threat to democracy." On top of that the President Joe Biden forgave $400 billion of student loans, pardoned prisoners with marijuana offenses, and released a million barrels a day of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
He got his message out – 28% of voters, driven by Democrats, think "threats to democracy" is the most pertinent issue making them go to the polls, according to this week’s Wall Street Journal poll. But this was only a base strategy, while the Republicans grew their leads on the issues of the economy, inflation, crime and immigration. Nearly half of voters think Republicans will be best able to get inflation under control and secure the border, and over 40% think they will be able to reduce crime as well. Democrats don’t break 30% on any of the three issues. The Republicans had trouble initially finding their message, but even in the online era their late-breaking TV ad campaigns seemed to have done the job.
REPUBLICANS MORE ENTHUSIASTIC TO VOTE IN MIDTERMS THAN DEMOCRATS, POLLS SHOW
So, let’s do some armchair predictions.
Congress should flip close to 20 seats toward the Republicans with these numbers. This is the equivalent of 45 seats in the past when the Democratic base would have been higher. Florida and Ohio will be big for the Republicans. Border states fed up with uncontrolled immigration will be too. It’s suburban women with kids who can make the swing bigger or smaller based on whether they vote more on abortion or the economy and parental education and cultural issues. Republicans now lead these women by 15 points, as they shifted 26 points away from Democrats in the past few months according to the Wall Street Journal poll.
After the debate in Pennsylvania, it would take dedicated Democrats to go for former lieutenant governor John Fetterman as he has shown himself too injured to serve and still won’t release his medical records. Dr. Mehmet Oz should win by a nose here.
Ohio and Florida should be safe for the Republicans and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Republican Ohio challenger JD Vance should win clear by 5 points or more.
Wisconsin is deeply troubled by crime and that should get GOP Sen. Ron Johnson across the finish line. In this environment Nevada Republican senatorial candidate Adam Laxalt should win in Nevada, as well. Both were almost lost causes several months ago, but crime and immigration should play out for the Republicans here.
Georgia should head to a runoff with neither candidate getting 50% of the vote. This will be a big race, but GOP Senate candidate Herschel Walker probably could win the runoff.
Alaska is a wildcard given the new and confusing voting system, but after the vote debacle that sent a Democrat to the House in this summer’s special election, perhaps the Republicans will be able to teach their voters how not to waste their second and third votes.
Some of the bridges too far for Republicans are likely to be Washington state, Arizona, and New Hampshire. If I’m wrong about New Hampshire, which typically comes in early in the night, then it’s a blowout beyond my estimates — but if Democrat Sen. Maggie Hassan wins, Republicans are on course for solid gains as expected to tip the Senate but not more. The New York State governor’s race is another outlier – Republican Lee Zeldin is closing but he still has a lot of ground to cover given Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul’s upstate base. I expect this to stay Democratic by single digits sending a message on the importance of crime; an upset here would also have Republicans running the table in the rest of the country.
These predictions should put the Republicans at 51 seats, with the Georgia race a possible 52nd. If Pennsylvania slips, then the Georgia runoff will determine it all.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE OPINION NEWSLETTER
There will be some chaos with mail-in ballots counted later in some states, and ranked-choice voting in Alaska could add to the national drama. Hopefully both parties will respect the count and declare democracy fulfilled.
This is probably the most polled and most talked-about midterm election in history as we enter a new world of widespread information and interest in politics. Younger voters seem somewhat turned off by the national events and economic conditions, while Republican voters appear to be energized at the ballot box but contributed less than expected in low-dollar contributions.
After the midterms, the stock market is likely to go up and federal spending go down, with some real showdowns on domestic spending and energy issues. Biden will have the choice of abandoning his political campaign for re-election, moving to the center to save his presidency as President Bill Clinton did, or losing spectacularly in two years. He is likely to stay the course and stay left unless he massively changes out his staff and is willing to do a 180-degree turn on most of his policies.
Former President Donald Trump will, of course, claim credit for it all. But he won’t be alone as interest will immediately shift to the Republican presidential primary, and expect all of the Republican up-and-comers to jump in to try to wrest the mantle from Trump. And all of this can now be fought out on the new Twitter.
