CSX’s fourth quarter results came in below Wall Street’s revenue and profit expectations, yet the market responded positively, reflecting confidence in the company’s operational and cost management strategies. Management highlighted that modest volume growth was achieved despite headwinds in key markets such as chemicals and forest products. CEO Steve Angel attributed performance to improved service reliability, continued safety gains, and ongoing efforts to optimize costs and productivity. The quarter included $50 million in expenses tied to workforce and technology restructuring—actions aimed at aligning the business with current market conditions and supporting future profitability.
Is now the time to buy CSX? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
CSX (CSX) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $3.51 billion vs analyst estimates of $3.54 billion (flat year on year, 0.9% miss)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.39 vs analyst expectations of $0.41 (5.3% miss)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $1.51 billion vs analyst estimates of $1.62 billion (43.2% margin, 6.4% miss)
- Operating Margin: 31.6%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Sales Volumes rose 1.4% year on year, in line with the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $69.6 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From CSX’s Q4 Earnings Call
- Tom Wadewitz (UBS) asked about pricing and productivity levers. CEO Steve Angel said, "Price yield will be better in 2026 than 2025," but progress will be incremental as contracts are renegotiated throughout the year.
- Brian Ossenbeck (JPMorgan) questioned the composition of margin improvement. CFO Kevin Boone explained that roughly $150 million in one-time costs will not recur, and that productivity initiatives—especially in labor and purchased services—will drive further gains.
- Scott Group (Wolfe Research) probed the outlook for volume versus yield and long-term margin potential. SVP Mary Claire Kenny expects only "modest volume growth," while Angel framed margin expansion as a product of disciplined price management and productivity rather than macro recovery.
- Stephanie Moore (Jefferies) inquired about industry consolidation and CSX's positioning. CEO Angel noted CSX will focus on daily operational excellence, manage merger risks, and pursue opportunities arising from changing industry dynamics.
- Jordan Alliger (Goldman Sachs) sought clarity on the timing and magnitude of intermodal double-stack benefits. Kenny said customer bids are underway for Q2, but it typically "takes a couple of bid cycles" for full volume ramp-up.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the quarters ahead, the StockStory team will closely monitor (1) the pace and scale of cost savings from ongoing restructuring and productivity initiatives, (2) the impact of Howard Street Tunnel double-stack capabilities on intermodal volumes, and (3) trends in business mix as infrastructure projects and coal demand offset softness in chemicals and automotive. Progress on these fronts will be critical for CSX’s ability to deliver on its targeted margin expansion.
CSX currently trades at $37.46, up from $35.78 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).
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