Ibotta’s third quarter was marked by a sharp revenue decline and compressed margins, which contributed to a significant negative market reaction. Management pointed to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, lower consumer sentiment, and disruptions in government assistance programs as key factors behind the softness, especially among large consumer packaged goods (CPG) clients. CEO Bryan Leach acknowledged that “the current macro environment continues to present challenges for CPG companies,” with clients pausing discretionary spending and demanding more rigorous proof of marketing return on investment.
Is now the time to buy IBTA? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Ibotta (IBTA) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $83.26 million vs analyst estimates of $81.91 million (15.6% year-on-year decline, 1.6% beat)
- EPS (GAAP): $0.05 vs analyst estimates of $0 (significant beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $16.61 million vs analyst estimates of $12.2 million (20% margin, 36.2% beat)
- Revenue Guidance for Q4 CY2025 is $82.5 million at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $84.14 million
- EBITDA guidance for Q4 CY2025 is $10.5 million at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $11.46 million
- Operating Margin: 2.8%, down from 21% in the same quarter last year
- Total Redemptions: 82.85 million, down 14.52 million year on year
- Market Capitalization: $666.2 million
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Ibotta’s Q3 Earnings Call
- Ronald Victor Josey (Citi) asked about the timeline for broad LiveLift adoption. CEO Bryan Leach explained that pilot programs typically require several months for setup and evaluation, with client budget cycles further extending the timeline for scaling.
- Ronald Victor Josey (Citi) followed up on macroeconomic headwinds, and CFO Matt Puckett noted persistent challenges from tariffs, low consumer sentiment, and SNAP benefit disruption, resulting in a cautious “wait-and-see” stance among clients.
- Nitin Bansal (Bank of America) inquired about AI integration. Leach detailed how machine learning is being used both for campaign projections and automating internal processes, including a recent solution that reduced campaign setup time by 50%.
- Andrew Boone (JMP Securities) asked about efforts to reduce platform friction and improve ease of use. Leach outlined plans for streamlined sales, easier campaign setup, and more user-friendly reporting as part of the “make it easy” initiative.
- Stefanos Chris (Needham & Company) queried about the contribution of Instacart and DoorDash partnerships. Leach said both channels continue to expand, with nearly all DoorDash customers now eligible for Ibotta offers and new product categories like beer and wine being added.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In coming quarters, the StockStory team will be tracking (1) the pace of LiveLift pilot adoption and evidence of repeat client spending, (2) the impact of third-party measurement partnerships like Surcana on new client wins and broader CPG engagement, and (3) further migration to and performance of third-party publishers such as Instacart and DoorDash. The speed at which clients move from pilot to scaled investment will be a key indicator of progress.
Ibotta currently trades at $25.02, down from $32.73 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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