CHICAGO, April 01, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- CHICAGO – April 1, 2025 – U.S. office supplies sales revenue across physical and digital retail channels totaled $11.5B in 2024, representing a decline of 5% compared to a year ago, as total unit demand fell 2%. With persistent inflation impacting consumer spending on retail goods, the outlook for 2025 remains challenged but increasingly stable with a projected 2% decline in 2025 and expected industry flattening through 2027, according to the latest Future of Office Supplies* report from Circana, LLC.
Consumers remained price-conscious in 2024, prioritizing essential product categories, seeking out discounts, and increasingly choosing private label brands. At the retail level, sales continued to migrate online with e-Commerce accounting for 24% of total office supplies revenue, an increase over 2023. Meanwhile, traditional brick-and-mortar sales softened, declining 6%, reinforcing the need for retailers and brands to adjust to evolving shopping behaviors.
“The market faced headwinds in 2024, and 2025 has already presented a new set of challenges for consumers,” said Ben Arnold, industry advisor, Office Supplies at Circana. “We expect consumers to remain value-focused in their shopping behaviors this year, but brands that optimize pricing, promotions, and assortment will be better positioned as the market stabilizes.”
Although most categories saw declines in 2024, certain segments like self-stick notes, encased pencils, and color markers are expected to show modest growth in 2025. The back-to-school season will remain a key sales period, with early promotions and discount strategies playing a crucial role in capturing demand. Circana estimates that 35% of total office supplies dollars in 2025 will be spent during the third-quarter back-to-school period and that revenue will decline less than 2% compared to Q3 2024.
Arnold added, “The office supplies industry is adjusting to long-term shifts in how and where people work, learn, and create. Retailers and manufacturers that take a proactive approach to digital transformation and consumer engagement, with an eye on maximizing the critical back-to-school shopping season, will be best positioned for success.”
*This analysis focuses on the consumer and retail office supplies market, excluding the janitorial/breakroom and storage categories, which tend to behave differently due to their more institutional nature. Circana’s reported forecast numbers generally omit these categories unless specifically noted.
About Circana
Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set, and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy.
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