Every third quarter, the global international logistics industry typically marks its traditional peak season – enterprises rush to stock up for the European and American Christmas shopping season, driving a significant surge in demand for maritime, air, and land transportation. However, the market trend in 2025 has broken this inertial pattern. According to a recent report by Bloomberg, Asia's container shipping market may have peaked ahead of schedule, with the phenomenon of a "lackluster peak season" becoming evident. Affected by the pre-shipment boom triggered by the temporary suspension of China-US tariffs, transportation demand that should have been concentrated in the third quarter was released in the second quarter, leaving the current international logistics market facing a weakening momentum.

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Behind this abnormal phenomenon lies a microcosm of profound adjustments in the global trade pattern and supply chain strategies. In the first half of this year, China and the United States reached a consensus in the economic and trade field, with temporary suspension of tariffs on some commodities, stimulating a large number of export enterprises to arrange shipments in advance to avoid risks brought by future policy uncertainties. This "rush export" behavior made international logistics orders from April to June extremely booming, with container freight rates on major routes once climbing to an annual high.

However, the preemptive release of demand has also overdrafted the growth potential of the international logistics peak season. After entering July, as the pre-shipment boom ended, inventories in European and American markets became saturated, and there was no significant recovery in end-consumer demand, leading to sluggish growth in new orders. Data from the National Retail Federation (NRF) shows that the growth forecast for US import demand in the second half of 2025 has been lowered multiple times, and retailers generally adopt a cautious restocking strategy. This change has been quickly transmitted to the international logistics field. The supply of container shipping capacity has gradually returned to normal, but the growth in cargo volume has failed to keep pace, resulting in a loose supply-demand relationship.

Market experts generally warn that the international logistics market may face the pressure of a sharp drop in freight rates in the coming months. Drewry, a shipping consulting agency, pointed out that as newly built container ships are delivered one after another, global shipping capacity continues to grow, while the demand side lacks strong support, and the risk of falling freight rates is increasing. Major global liner companies such as Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) have begun to adjust their route deployments, with some routes adopting temporary suspension or frequency reduction measures to stabilize freight rates. However, whether these measures can effectively curb the downward trend of the market remains to be seen.

In addition, fluctuations in international logistics costs have also had a profound impact on the layout of global supply chains. High maritime shipping costs once prompted enterprises to shift production capacity to Southeast Asia, Mexico and other regions to shorten transportation distances and reduce international logistics risks. With the increasing expectation of current freight rate decline, some enterprises may re-evaluate their global manufacturing and distribution strategies. However, structural factors such as geopolitical tensions and increasing regional trade barriers still make it difficult for enterprises to fully return to the "single-center" model, and multi-regional and multi-node international logistics networks are becoming the new normal.

Looking ahead, although the international logistics market faces adjustment pressure in the short term, in the medium and long term, the general trend of global trade interconnection will not reverse.

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