UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
SCHEDULE 14A
Proxy Statement Pursuant to Section 14(a) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Filed by the Registrant x Filed by a party other than the Registrant ¨
Check the appropriate box:
¨ | Preliminary Proxy Statement | |
¨ | Confidential, For Use of the Commission Only (as permitted by Rule 14a-6(e)(2)) | |
¨ | Definitive Proxy Statement | |
x | Definitive Additional Materials | |
¨ | Soliciting Material Pursuant to §240.14a-12 |
American Greetings Corporation
(Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter)
(Name of Person(s) Filing Proxy Statement, if Other Than the Registrant)
Payment of Filing Fee (Check the appropriate box):
x | No fee required | |||
¨ | Fee computed on table below per Exchange Act Rules 14a-6(i)(1) and 0-11. | |||
(1) | Title of each class of securities to which transaction applies:
| |||
(2) | Aggregate number of securities to which transaction applies:
| |||
(3) | Per unit price or other underlying value of transaction computed pursuant to Exchange Act Rule 0-11 (set forth the amount on which the filing fee is calculated and state how it was determined):
| |||
(4) | Proposed maximum aggregate value of transaction:
| |||
(5) | Total fee paid:
| |||
¨ | Fee paid previously with preliminary materials. | |||
¨ | Check box if any part of the fee is offset as provided by Exchange Act Rule 0-11(a)(2) and identify the filing for which the offsetting fee was paid previously. Identify the previous filing by registration statement number, or the Form or Schedule and the date of its filing. | |||
(1) | Amount previously paid:
| |||
(2) | Form, Schedule or Registration Statement No.:
| |||
(3) | Filing Party:
| |||
(4) | Date Filed:
|
The following presentation was delivered to Institutional Shareholder Services today.
American Greetings
Investor Presentation
July 18, 2013 |
1.
Transaction Summary
2.
Strategic Rationale
3.
Process
4.
Valuation
Topics
1 |
1.
Transaction Summary
2.
Strategic Rationale
3.
Process
4.
Valuation
2
X
X
X
X
X
X |
Transaction
Summary Merger Price:
3
Offer Premium:
Shareholder Meeting:
Required Vote:
On April 1, 2013, American Greetings Corporation announced that it had signed a
definitive agreement
under
which
the
Weiss
Family
would
acquire
the
Company
for
$18.20
in
cash.
On
July
3,
2013,
AG
announced
that
it
had
signed
an
amendment
to
the
merger
agreement
providing
for
an
increased per share price of $19.00 in cash
Funding:
$19.00 per share in cash for all shares not owned by the Family and related
entities
In addition, a regular quarterly dividend of $0.15 paid in July 2013
32.5%
to
the
9/25/12
stock
price
(unaffected
closing
price
prior
to
the
Familys
initial offer); 33.1% to the average stock price for 45-days prior to initial offer
18.0%
to
the
3/28/13
stock
price
(last
trading
day
prior
to
the
public
announcement
of a definitive merger agreement)
26.5%
to
the
LTM
EBITDA
multiple
over
average
LTM
EBITDA
at
9/25/12
4.4%
to the $18.20 price per share under the original merger agreement
Transaction financed through:
Contributions of American Greetings shares owned by the Family
~$240 million non-voting preferred stock investment from Koch AG
Investment
$600 million in committed debt financing ($350 million funded term loan and
$250 million partially funded revolving credit facility)
August 7, 2013
Affirmative vote of holders of a majority of the common stock not held by the
Family
and
related
entities
or
any
director
or
executive
officer
(Majority
of
the
Minority) |
1.
Transaction Summary
2.
Strategic Rationale
3.
Process
4.
Valuation
4
*
*
*
*
* |
Strategic
Rationale Executive Summary
American Greetings is at an inflection point
Paper greeting cards and gift packaging constitute ~88% of our business, and the
market is shrinkingwe are experiencing persistent
year-over-year declines in sales of the core greeting card
business, due to combination of a number of factors, including:
A shrinking base of card and gift shops
Increasing distribution through the value channel
The effects of the explosion of social media
Opportunities in the electronic social expressions channel of distribution exist,
but require substantial investment and entail significant execution
risk
Substantial
required
deferred
maintenance
spending
on
IT
systems
and
new
or
substantially rehabilitated headquarters
Company requires capital investment at roughly 3x normal levels over next three
years
Transaction transfers all business risk to the Family; gives public shareholders
certainty of cash at a significant premium
5 |
Strategic
Rationale Executive Summary (contd)
The Companys stock has consistently underperformed in trading markets
Strategy of returning cash to shareholders (over $1 billion to Class A public
shareholders
through
dividends
and
repurchases
since
FY2005)
has
not
been
successful in driving share price performance
The
following
are
likely
contributing
to
weak
stock
performance:
core
market
shrinking, revenue growth challenges, margin pressures, complex changes in
portfolio
of
businesses,
lack
of
comparable
companies,
virtually
no
analyst
coverage
and necessary investments
Many investors are under pressure to produce short-term and intermediate
returns, especially in todays low-yield environment, making it
difficult to hold shares through business
transformations,
and
creating
further
downward
pressure
on
share
price
During this period, share prices will likely be put under pressure
Transformational expenses will detract from AGs results of operations
The
Family
has
controlled
AG
for
over
100
years,
and
wants
to
do
what
is
best
for
AG
while being fair to public shareholdersthe Family does not think the required
transformation can realistically be achieved as a public company
6
If the transaction is voted down, the capital that must be redeployed into
the business for the foreseeable future will not be available to
shareholders |
American Greetings engages in the design, manufacture and sale of greeting cards and
other social expression products in the United States and
internationally
Segments include:
North American Social Expression Products (includes Cardstore.com)
International Social Expression Products
Interactive or internet brands (e.g., AmericanGreetings.com, BlueMountain.com,
egreetings.com)
UK Retail (Clintons)
Other, including in-store display fixture business and licensing of
intellectual properties (e.g., Care Bears and Strawberry Shortcake)
The Company distributes its greeting card products through mass merchandisers,
dollar stores, chain drug stores, supermarkets, card and gift shops
Business Overview
7
FY2013 Revenue Breakout by Segment / Product Category
74% of FY2013
Revenue came from
Core Paper Greeting
Card sales |
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
CY07
CY08
CY09
CY10
CY11
CY12
6.2
6.1
6.0
6.0
5.9
5.9
5.7
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.2
6.3
CY07
CY08
CY09
CY10
CY11
CY12
Greeting Cards Industry Faces Persistent,
Accelerating Decline
Mature greeting cards industry experiencing long-term and accelerating unit
decline (2%-4% decline / year since CY 2007)
Pace of decline meaningfully accelerated in 2011 and 2012, despite improved
economy
Most lucrative heavy user
customer base saw declining volume in 2012 (-1.5%)
Social media, including Facebook and other e-greeting technologies, have
exerted competitive pressure on American Greetings and the industry
overall
While price increases have softened the revenue impact, sustainability is uncertain
given absolute prices, emergence of mass retailers/dollar stores and
increasing electronic pressures 8
Source:
IRI
scan
data,
AG
proprietary
consumer
surveys,
management
estimates.
Units
Dollars
U.S. Greeting Card Industry Units and Dollar Sales Trends
Billions
CY07-CY12 CAGR: (2.6%)
Billions
CY07-CY12 CAGR: (0.8%) |
Declining Industry Trends
Consumer
purchases
driven
more
by
selection
and
convenience
than
by
brand
Adult participation in social networking and media has grown to ~52% in 2012 from
~11% in 2006
Retailer consolidation increases retailer purchasing power
Channel shift
Mass retailers and dollar stores growing share as card and gift shops
(specialty retail) decline
More volume sold at lower price points and lower margins
Electronic channels of social expression have emerged as potentially major
disruptors to our core industry
9
Source: IRI scan data, AG proprietary consumer surveys, management estimates.
(a) Does not include e-cards
Card Category History and Projections by Channel
Units
Dollars |
Stock
Price Performance 10
Source: Capital IQ as of 7/2/13.
(a) Represents closing price as of 9/25/12, unaffected for announcement of Initial
Offer, which was made after the market close.
In the two years prior to the initial Family offer, AGs stock price was
down 30% despite having returned over $180 million of capital to
shareholders in that period
In
the
same
period,
the
S&P
400
Consumer
Discretionary
Index
was
up
40%
Correlation
between
AGs
stock
price
and
the
broader
market
has
been
very
low
over
both
short-
and long-term periods |
Trading
Ranges Nearly Always Below Final Offer 11
30-Days
Between 9/25 Initial Proposal and 7/2 (191 Days)
180-Days
1-Year
Source: Capital IQ as of 7/2/13.
99% of shares traded over the one-year period prior to the Familys initial
proposal traded below $19.00
100% of shares traded below $16.50 in the six months prior to the initial
proposal (Period ending September 25, 2012, except where noted)
|
American
Greetings 15-Year Stock Price Chart Marked Decline in Equity Value
American Greetings 15-Year Total Shareholders' Equity Value History
Source: Capital IQ.
12 |
Lackluster Stock Price Performance Despite
Major Return of Capital to Shareholders
Since FY2005, AG has returned over $1 billion of capital to Class A public
shareholders through share repurchases and
dividends
Despite major share repurchases and dividends, AGs unaffected stock price
has declined 38% since 2005 and 82% since 1997; the Companys strategy
of returning significant capital to shareholders has not been
successful Deployment of Capital to Class A Shareholders ($ in millions)
13
Source: Companys public filings. Class A dividends calculated by
applying ratio of average Class A shares outstanding to average Class B shares outstanding in each fiscal year to total dividends paid in such year. |
Limited
Benefit to Being Public Source: Bloomberg, Capital IQ, ThomsonOne
(a) ADTV calculated as averaged trading volume over 30 consecutive trading
days
Lack
of
comparable
public
companies
discourages investment in equity research and
investor education
Largest competitor (Hallmark Cards) is privately
owned
Social expressions is an adjacent market to
consumer goods, limiting interest from institutions
focused on the consumer goods markets
Many of the standard benefits enjoyed by public
companies do not exist for American Greetings
Limited institutional support
only one equity coverage
analyst
Industry fundamentals do not support future equity
research coverage or institutional investment
Average daily trading volume and declining public share
float further hinder liquidity and appetite for public
investment
On average over the six months prior to the Familys
initial offer, short interest accounted for 40% of AGs
share float
investors have recognized that our core
market is shrinking
14
Shares Outstanding and Average Daily Trading Volume ("ADTV")
(a)
Industry Fundamentals
Limited
Institutional
Support
AG
Equity
Coverage
Analysts |
American
Greetings is at a Significant Competitive Disadvantage as Long as it is
Publicly Traded
American Greetings
largest competitor is privately held and able to invest and re-
invest in its business without the pressure to produce period-over-period
revenue, earnings and cash flow growth
Expanding business with retail customers can require significant upfront expenses
before revenue and profit are generated, thereby putting substantial
pressure on short-term results and causing earnings volatility
American
Greetings
recently
developed
a
significant
new
customer
relationship
with a national retailer; however, assuming a contract is signed, the relationship
would require substantial investment in the early years and has a negative
NPV over the first five years
After American Greetings publicly reports strong operating results, commercial
negotiations become more difficult as retail customers push contract
terms
As
a
private
company,
American
Greetings
will
be
subject
to
less
commercial
negotiating stress, and be better able to optimize its retail partner negotiations
much like its largest competitor
15 |
Industry
Challenges and Necessary Redirection of Capital Increase Downside Risks for
Public Holders
Persistent decline in the core paper greeting cards industry of 2%-4% unit
volume annually (including 3.7% decline in most recent year)
Intensifying risks to the core paper greeting cards industry posed by transition
to the use of social media, decrease in number of specialty retailers and
growing proportion of value channel sales
Material costs associated with investments in online/digital social expression
products with uncertain return
Increasing concentration of retailers exacerbates pressure on commercial
terms
The Company will continue to support investment in the value channel as a source
of potential unit growth, despite negative implications on margins
Alternatives evaluated, such as a substantial special dividend or leveraged
recapitalization transaction, would reduce the Companys flexibility and
jeopardize the equity value of the Company
Substantial investments required over the next several years (restructuring Clinton
Cards,
modernization
of
IT
systems,
new
or
significant
rehabilitation
of
headquarters)
will adversely affect earnings and cash flow
These factors, taken collectively, evidence significant challenges facing the
Company were it to remain public, and support the recommendation to deliver
certain value to shareholders
16 |
1.
Transaction Summary
2.
Strategic Rationale
3.
Process
4.
Valuation
17
*
*
*
*
* |
Process
Executive Summary
Fully independent Special Committee advised by nationally recognized independent
advisors
Financial advisors fees not conditioned on rendering a favorable opinion as
to the transaction
Special Committee empowered to consider/pursue alternatives and to reject any
proposed transaction
The Family did not participate in any board deliberations concerning the
proposal
Transaction
conditioned
on
majority
of
the
minority
vote
Standstill after public announcement of Family proposal to ensure negotiating
leverage and
adequate
time
for
a
third
party
to
express
interest
(no
such
interest
was
expressed)
Special Committee negotiated a substantial increase in Familys offer
price
Special Committee continued to evaluate the Company after the March 28, 2013
agreement was reached, and extracted additional value for shareholders
18 |
Experienced / Independent Special Committee
and Independent Advisors
19
The Special Committee:
Dr.
Scott
S.
Cowen:
President
of
Tulane
University,
former
Dean
of
Case
Western
Reserve
University,
former
Chairman
of
Special
Committee
for
Jo-Ann
Stores
going-private
LBO
Jeffrey D.
Dunn:
Former President and Chief Executive Officer and director of
HIT Entertainment Limited
William
E.
MacDonald,
III:
Former
Vice
Chairman
of
National
City
Corporation
Michael
J.
Merriman,
Jr.:
Former
CEO
of
Lamson
&
Sessions
Corporation
Advisors to the Special Committee:
Peter J. Solomon Company, financial advisor
Sullivan & Cromwell, legal advisor |
Key
Process and Proposal Highlights
American Greetings was founded by Jacob Sapirstein in 1906, and has remained
controlled by descendants of Jacob Sapirstein (now the Weiss Family) throughout the
Companys existence
A/B voting structure in existence since 1955; public shareholders invested
knowingly into Family-controlled company with an A/B voting
structure
During the six-month public process, prospective parties interested in
contacting the Special Committee or PJSC were able to do so
On
10/19/12,
the
Company
issued
a
press
release
stating
that
the
Special
Committee was authorized to review and evaluate other options, signaling openness
to third-party approaches
No third party expressed interest in acquiring or entering into any other
transaction with the Company during that six-month period (or to
date)
A
standstill
provision
prohibited
the
Family
from
pursuing
a
bid
(or
taking
certain
other related actions) without the consent of the Special Committee
Record reflects extensive negotiation by the Special Committee
The
Family
did
not
participate
in
any
deliberations
of
American
Greetings
Board
of
Directors regarding the proposal
Special Committee actively controlled Family access to company management
20 |
Robust
Special Committee Process
Board of Directors delegated to the Special Committee the exclusive power and
authority to recommend what action, if any, should be taken with respect to
the Familys proposal
The Committee could have just said no, or approved a financial alternative
Counsel for Special Committee and Family negotiated confidentiality agreement with
standstill
Contained 22-week standstill provision that limited the ability of the
Family to make a
proposal directly to the Companys shareholders or to purchase shares
Special Committee also obtained a 12-month standstill from the Familys
potential financing sources, effectively limiting the ability of the Family
to acquire the Company without Special Committee approval
Special Committee of four independent directors also empowered to consider and
recommend that the Board take action with respect to strategic alternatives,
including the ability to reject the Familys proposal and remain a
public company or pursue a financial alternative
The Special Committee met 27 times between its formation and original announcement
of the transaction and evaluated alternatives, including:
Continuing as a stand-alone public company
Undertaking a recapitalization (including share repurchases and/or
dividends)
Sale of Company to the Family
The Special Committee met an additional seven times between the original
announcement of the transaction and the announcement of the amendment to the
merger agreement 21 |
Robust
Special Committee Process (contd)
The Board fully considered and adopted the Special Committees recommendation
in making its decision to unanimously recommend the transaction to the
shareholders
The
Special
Committee
demanded
and
secured
Majority
of
the
Minority
shareholder
approval requirement; shares beneficially owned by directors, officers and the
Family not counted in Majority of Minority vote
Negates voting interest of Family and other officers and directors
Remaining Class B shares receive only one vote
Enables public shareholders to determine whether transaction will occur
The Special Committee continued to evaluate the Company after the original merger
agreement
was
signed,
and
demanded
and
secured
an
enhancement
in
the
per
share
merger consideration
The Family Shareholders believe that the financial developments during the
Companys first fiscal quarter of 2014 were neither material nor reflective
of any fundamental
improvement
in
the
trajectory
of
American
Greetings
business;
nevertheless, the Special Committee was able to extract an additional 4.4% premium
($0.80 per share) for the public shareholders
22 |
Arms-Length Legal Negotiations
On behalf of the Family, Jones Day delivered the first draft of the Merger Agreement
on January 19, 2013, and the agreement was negotiated by Jones Day and
Sullivan & Cromwell until March 29, 2013. As compared to Jones
Days initial draft of the agreement, the final version reflects
several key concessions secured by the Special Committee, including:
The Majority of the Minority shareholder vote
A $7.3 million joint and several guaranty from the Family with respect to the
obligations of the purchasing entities
The
Special
Committee's
ability
to
change
its
recommendation
due
to
an
intervening
event
affecting AGs prospects as a publicly traded company
The obligation of the Family Shareholders to deliver a fully executed preferred
stock purchase agreement for the preferred equity concurrently with the
execution of the Merger Agreement, as opposed to simply providing a
commitment letter
More favorable language on customarily negotiated items such as representations,
warranties, covenants and other provisions affecting closing
certainty
The cancellation, without consideration, of the various equity awards held by the
Family Shareholders with an aggregate value of over $9.3 million
23 |
1.
Transaction Summary
2.
Strategic Rationale
3.
Process
4.
Valuation
24
*
*
*
*
* |
Valuation
Valuation Overview
Special Committee believes that the $19.00 per share consideration (reached after
prolonged negotiations) represents the highest per share consideration it
could obtain from the Family
$19.00 proposal represents a 32.5% premium to the 9/25/12 unaffected closing price
prior to the Familys initial proposal
Companys financial results in recent years have been significantly affected
by non- recurring, one-time and other special items
~40% of FY2013E Adjusted EBIT was related to one-time adjustments
Makes it difficult to identify clear trends in the Companys business and the
Companys likely future financial performance
Results in inconsistent cash flows
Companys EBIT has consistently underperformed relative to strategic plans,
raising concerns about certainty of future EBIT forecasts
25 |
$12.50
$15.25
$13.00
$16.00
$16.75
$17.00
$19.50
$25.00
$22.50
$23.25
$25.50
$23.00
$10.00
$12.50
$15.00
$17.50
$20.00
$22.50
$25.00
$27.50
52-Week Trading Range Prior
to 9/25/13 Offer
Comparable Companies
Precedent Transactions
Present Value of Future Share
Price (a)
Sum of the Parts
DCF
26
(a)
Includes
present
value
of
future
quarterly
dividend
payments
of
$0.15
per
share.
Valuation Analysis Summary
1/17/13
Offer
Unaffected Share
9/25/12
$14.34
$17.18
9/25/12
Initial Offer
3/28/13
Offer
$18.20
7/1/13
Offer
$19.00 |
Compelling Offer to Shareholders
Attractive Premium
32.5% premium to unaffected share price prior to Familys initial proposal
(9/25/12)
33.1% premium to 45 trading day average prior to Familys initial proposal
18.0% premium to closing stock price prior to announcement of original definitive
merger agreement (3/28/13)
4.4% premium to the price per share contained in the original March 29, 2013
merger agreement
Premium Multiple
4.0x FY13E EBITDA based on Management Treasury Model dated 11/30/12 with certain
adjustments based on Management guidance
Represents a 29.3% premium to the average LTM EBITDA multiple over American
Greetings prior year average LTM EBITDA multiple
More favorable to the Companys shareholders than the status quo or other
strategic and financial alternatives given the operational and/or financial
risks associated with the status quo or other alternatives
$19.00 per share compared to valuation methodologies
Discounted cash flow: $17.00 to $23.00
Selected public company analysis: $15.25 to $25.00
Precedent transactions: $13.00 to $22.50
Present value of future share price: $16.00 to $23.25
Sum of the parts: $16.75 to $25.50
Company shares have not historically correlated with broader equity markets and it
cannot be assumed that recent positive trends in overall market
conditions would similarly affect the Companys shares in absence of an
offer 27
Note:
American
Greetings
has
no
substantially
similar
publicly
traded
comparable
companies |
Premium
Valuation Achieved 28
$14.34
$17.18
$17.50
$18.20
$19.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
$20.00
$14.34
$17.18
$17.50
$18.20
$19.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
$20.00
8.6% premium to
Revised
Proposal on 1/17
(a)
Revised Proposal on 1/17/13 would eliminate regular quarterly dividends of
$0.15 per share. (b)
Revised Proposal on 3/28/13 also includes one regular quarterly dividend of $0.15
per share payable July 2013 (not included above). Unaffected
Share Price
Initial
Proposal
On 9/25/12
Revised
Proposal on
1/17/13 (a)
Revised
Proposal on
3/28/13 (b)
10.6%
premium to
Initial Proposal
32.5%
premium to
unaffected
share price
Premium
to
Unaffected
Trading
Price
and
Earlier
Proposals
by
the
Family
Final Offer
4.4% premium to
Revised Proposal
on 3/28 |
Premium
Valuation Achieved 29
$12.50
$14.25
$14.34
$16.10
$18.20
$19.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
$20.00
Unaffected
Share Price
18%
premium to
prior day
closing
stock price
(a) Revised Proposal on 3/28/13 also includes one regular quarterly dividend of
$0.15 per share payable July 2013 (not included above). 52-Week
Low Prior to
Initial
Proposal
Closing
Stock Price
on 3/28/13
32.5%
premium to
unaffected
share price
33.3%
premium to 30
calendar days
prior to Initial
Proposal
30 Calendar
Days Prior
to Initial
Proposal
52.0%
premium to
52-week low
prior to Initial
Proposal
Revised
Proposal on
3/28/13 (a)
Premium to Various Historical Stock Prices
Final Offer
4.4% premium to
Revised Proposal
on 3/28 |
Offer
Represents Significant Premium Source:
Capital
IQ.
Capital
IQ
calculation
of
enterprise
value
does
not
include
restricted
stock
units
or
performance
shares
and
may
have
different
adjustments
for
EBITDA
than
those
used
in
other
analyses
in this
presentation. Data as of 7/2/13.
(a) CapIQ calculates LTM EV/EBITDA multiple using EBITDA of $150.1mm for period
ended 2/28/13 compared to adjusted EBITDA of $212.3mm for same period with adjustments per Management guidance.
(b)Current multiple assumes LTM EBITDA of $212.3mm and net debt of $200.3mm for the
period ended 2/28/13 based on Companys Form 10-K dated 5/9/13, with certain adjustments to EBITDA based on Management
guidance. Current multiple calculated using diluted share count including restricted
stock units and performance shares and treasury stock method of options exercisable as of 5/31/13 per Management guidance.
30
EV / LTM EBITDA
2 years prior to Initial Proposal |
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
American Greetings
S&P 400 Consumer Discretionary
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
American Greetings
S&P 400 Consumer Discretionary
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Sep-97
Sep-00
Sep-03
Sep-06
Sep-09
Sep-12
American Greetings
S&P 400 Consumer Discretionary
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Sep-02
Sep-04
Sep-06
Sep-08
Sep-10
Sep-12
American Greetings
S&P 400 Consumer Discretionary
10-Year Relative Stock Chart
15-Year Relative Stock Chart
5-Year Relative Stock Chart
Comparative Stock Price Performance
3-Year Relative Stock Chart
Source: Capital IQ.
31
While the broader market has provided significant returns on equity investments over
time, American Greetings
has
significantly
underperformed
and,
in
most
periods,
has
not
provided
positive
return
Furthermore, in all observed time periods, American Greetings has demonstrated a
lack of correlation with the broader consumer discretionary market
41.9%
253.9%
87.4%
223.6%
55.0%
134.0%
75.6%
168.1%
(Period ending September 25, 2012)
R
: 0.213
R
: 0.292
R
: 0.322
R
: 0.068
2
2
2
2 |
0.172
0.026
0.029
0.021
0.106
0.016
0.126
0.012
0.022
0.051
0.033
0.084
0.097
0.076
0.288
0.304
0.155
0.178
0.202
0.217
0.144
0.098
0.212
0.088
0.138
0.076
0.176
0.070
--
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
0.700
0.800
0.900
1.000
BTH
CSS
SCHL
MDP
ICON
CHKE
FLWS
SFLY
RRD
QUAD
HGG
GME
BBY
BKS
Low Trading Price Correlation to Comparables
Source: Bloomberg. R-squared is calculated as the weekly correlation between
week over week change of the stock and American Greetings. 32
In addition to the lack of correlation between AGs stock price and the S&P
400 Consumer Discretionary Index, movement in AGs stock price has a
very low correlation with the selected comparable public companies
While we believe the selected group of comparable companies is as similar as
possible to AG, there simply are not substantially similar comparable
companies in the public market 1-Year (9/26/11 - 9/25/12)
5-Year (9/25/07 - 9/25/12) |
Short
Interest
Prior to the announcement of the Familys initial proposal, approximately 44%
of AGs float was short
Similarly high short interest likely to return if transaction not consummated
AG Short Interest as Percent of Float
May 2012 to June 2013
33
Source: Short interest data from NYSE; float number from FactSet
|
A
Leveraged Recap is Not a Viable Alternative
The Special Committee, after careful consideration, concluded that a leveraged
recapitalization was not likely to lead to superior value.
Substantially greater debt levels would significantly increase AGs business
risks by reducing (1) the Companys flexibility, (2) its ability to
respond to adverse business developments, and (3) its ability to fund
necessary deferred capital expendituresall of which is likely to
jeopardize the equity value of the Company
The common equity of a recapitalized, more indebted Company might trade at lower
multiples of EBITDA than it has traded in the recent past
The Companys resulting small equity capitalization could impair the
liquidity and trading value of the Companys publicly held Class
A common shares
The potential economic benefits of such a dividend/recapitalization transaction
are not likely to provide a value superior to the $19.00 per share merger
consideration and the risks to realizing any superior value are
considerable
AGs track record of substantial capital return to shareholders has
not been correlated with
creation of value in the stock price (over $1bn returned since FY2005; stock price
down 35%); there is no reason to believe that markets would react
differently to further capital return
It is likely that the very high level of short interest in AG (44% of share float
prior to the Familys offer) would return
A leveraged recapitalization would not address the basic challenges of reshaping
our business for the future as a public company
34 |
35
Future Stock Price Analysis Based on Illustrative
Levered Recap
Source:
Share
count
for
LTM
based
on
diluted
shares
outstanding
as
of
5/31/13
per
Management;
FY14-FY18
based
on
diluted
shares
outstanding
from
Updated
Management
Treasury
Model
dated
6/23/13.
(Amounts in Millions, Except Per Share Data)
Fiscal Year
LTM
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Adjusted EBITDA (c)
$216.9
$218.8
$230.9
$238.7
$245.5
% Growth
4.4%
(1.2%)
5.5%
3.4%
2.8%
Net Debt
461.6
475.5
423.6
391.1
268.4
116.0
Total Debt / EBITDA
2.4 x
2.1 x
1.9 x
1.7 x
1.1 x
0.5 x
Adj. EBITDA
Stock Price at End of Fiscal Year
Multiple
LTM
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Projected Stock Price at Illustrative EV/Adjusted EBITDA Multiples:
3.4
x
$8.32
$8.42
$9.58
$11.60
$15.76
$20.56
3.6
9.63
9.77
10.88
12.96
17.15
21.96
3.8
10.94
11.11
12.19
14.32
18.53
23.37
4.0
12.24
12.46
13.50
15.68
19.92
24.77
4.2
13.55
13.80
14.81
17.04
21.30
26.18
4.4
14.86
15.14
16.12
18.40
22.69
27.58
4.6
16.17
16.49
17.42
19.76
24.07
28.98
4.8
17.48
17.83
18.73
21.11
25.46
30.39
Present Value at May 31, 2013
Present Value of Stock Price Assuming 13.5% Cost of Equity:
3.4
x
$8.32
$7.66
$7.67
$8.19
$9.81
$11.27
3.6
9.63
8.88
8.72
9.15
10.67
12.04
3.8
10.94
10.11
9.77
10.11
11.53
12.81
4.0
12.24
11.33
10.82
11.07
12.39
13.58
4.2
13.55
12.55
11.87
12.03
13.25
14.35
4.4
14.86
13.77
12.92
12.99
14.12
15.12
4.6
16.17
15.00
13.96
13.95
14.98
15.89
4.8
17.48
16.22
15.01
14.91
15.84
16.66
Present Value at May 31, 2013
Total Shareholder Value Including Present Value of Stock Price and
3.4
x
$16.32
$15.66
$15.68
$16.19
$17.81
$19.27
$8.00 Dividend, Assuming 13.5% Cost of Equity:
3.6
17.63
16.89
16.72
17.15
18.67
20.04
Assuming 100.0% Cost of Equity:
3.8
18.94
18.11
17.77
18.11
19.53
20.81
4.0
20.25
19.33
18.82
19.07
20.39
21.58
$221.5(d)
4.2
21.55
20.55
19.87
20.03
21.25
22.35
4.4
22.86
21.78
20.92
20.99
22.12
23.12
4.6
24.17
23.00
21.96
21.95
22.98
23.89
4.8
25.48
24.22
23.01
22.91
23.84
24.66
Assumes
an
$8.00
dividend
is
paid
on
5/31/13,
(a)
using
incremental
borrowing
of
$265
million,
resulting
in
2.4x
Debt / LTM EBITDA
Assumes
no
make-whole
payment
on
existing
7.375%
Senior
Notes
(b)
Assumes suspension of regular $0.15 / quarter dividend
(a) Assumes $265mm of incremental leverage using Term Loan B at L + 450bps with
125bps floor (2.4x Total Debt / LTM EBITDA). (b) Does not factor in potential
consent fees or changes to interest rate. (c) Source: LTM EBITDA as of 5/31/13
per Management on 6/25/13, with certain adjustments, including normalizing for 365-day period, based on Management guidance. FY2014-FY2018 per Updated Management Treasury
Model dated 6/26/13, with certain adjustments to FY2014E EBITDA based on Management
guidance. (d) FY2014E Adjusted EBITDA includes $8.0 million of additional
adjustments made in connection with the analyses performed by the Special Committee and its advisors |
36
Pro Forma Effect of Special Dividend
Mkt Cap Post Dividend
Stock Price Post Dividend
Proforma 5/31/13 Stock
Price Plus Dividend
(Amounts in Millions, Except Per Share Data)
Special
Dividend
Total $
Pro Forma
EV / Adj. LTM EBITDA Multiple (a)
Per Share
Distributed
Debt / EBITDA
3.4 x
3.6 x
3.8 x
4.0 x
4.2 x
4.4 x
4.6 x
4.8 x
$16.32
$17.63
$18.94
$20.25
$21.55
$22.86
$24.17
$25.48
$2.00
$66.3
1.5 x
$474.9
$518.2
$561.6
$605.0
$648.4
$691.7
$735.1
$778.5
$14.32
$15.63
$16.94
$18.25
$19.55
$20.86
$22.17
$23.48
$4.00
132.6
1.8 x
$408.5
$451.9
$495.3
$538.7
$582.1
$625.4
$668.8
$712.2
$12.32
$13.63
$14.94
$16.25
$17.55
$18.86
$20.17
$21.48
$6.00
199.0
2.1 x
$342.2
$385.6
$429.0
$472.4
$515.7
$559.1
$602.5
$645.9
$10.32
$11.63
$12.94
$14.25
$15.55
$16.86
$18.17
$19.48
$8.00
265.3
2.4 x
$275.9
$319.3
$362.6
$406.0
$449.4
$492.8
$536.2
$579.5
$8.32
$9.63
$10.94
$12.24
$13.55
$14.86
$16.17
$17.48
$10.00
331.6
2.7 x
$209.6
$253.0
$296.3
$339.7
$383.1
$426.5
$469.9
$513.2
$6.32
$7.63
$8.94
$10.25
$11.55
$12.86
$14.17
$15.48
Source: Share count based on diluted shares outstanding as of 5/31/13 per Management
guidance. Calendar Days
Prior to Initial Offer
Mean
Median
30 Days
3.2 x
3.2 x
60 Days
3.1 x
3.1 x
90 Days
3.1 x
3.1 x
6 Months
3.0 x
3.0 x
12 Months
3.1 x
3.1 x
18 Months
3.4 x
3.3 x
24 Months
3.5 x
3.5 x
In the 24 months preceding the Familys initial offer, the average EV/Adjusted
LTM EBITDA multiple was 3.5x
EV / LTM EBITDA
2 years prior to Initial Proposal
Note: Market capitalization calculated using the enterprise value based on LTM EBITDA of $216.9mm
multiplied by the adjusted LTM EBITDA multiple, less net debt of $196.3mm as of 5/31/13,
per Management on 6/25/13, less cash used to issue
dividends. (a) Source: LTM
EBITDA as of 5/31/13 from Management, with certain adjustments, including normalizing for 365-day period, based on Management guidance.
|
Conclusion
Growth in the paper greeting card space has been negative and this trend is likely
to continue
Growth in electronic channels may increase rapidly
American Greetings is at an inflection point; capital will be dramatically
redirected
Capital must be redirected from a focus on returning capital to shareholders to
investments in the core business including information technology and the
electronic channel of distribution
AGs normal capital expenditures are approximately $50 million per
year. In light of the conditions faced by the Company, up to $446
million (over 1.75x historical patterns) is estimated to be required over
the next five years for:
Deferred expenditures in information systems technology;
Substantial rehabilitation of the current headquarters or investment in a new
headquarters (current facility ~60 years old);
Investment in emerging channels of distribution for social expressions products
(through Cardstore or other emerging channels of distribution)
A substantial portion of this required capex is not growth-focused, but rather
is deferred maintenance necessary to support the Companys core
business in the declining paper greeting card industry
The proposed transaction transfers all business risk to the Family, giving public
shareholders certainty of cash at a significant premium
37 |
Conclusion (contd)
A premium cash offer at a time when industry trends show declining sales
Significant premium above stocks trading levels over the months leading up
to announcement and premium multiple
More favorable to the Companys shareholders than the status quo or other
strategic and financial alternatives available
No third party has provided any indication of interest in pursuing a transaction
involving the Company
The proposal is the culmination of a process that ultimately leaves shareholders
with the decision:
The
merger
agreement
must
be
approved
by
a
Majority
of
the
Minority
vote
38
$19.00
per
share
in
cash
is
fair
to
and
in
the
best
interests
of
the
Company
and
its
unaffiliated shareholders based on: |
Appendix
Chronology of Negotiation Process
Special Committee Qualifications
Forward-Looking Statements
Additional Information and Where to Find It
Participants in the Solicitation
39 |
12/7/12
Special Committee told the Family that it would only negotiate if and when
the Family presented a firmer and more detailed financing structure
Special Committee communicated to the Family the possibility of pursuing
alternative transactions (e.g., recapitalization) to enhance value
Special
Committee
also
communicated
to
the
Family
that
it
sought
a
bid in
the $20s
Chronology of Special Committees Efforts to
Maximize Shareholder Value
Family submitted Initial Proposal of $17.18 to acquire all Class
A and Class
B common shares not owned by the Family
40
9/25/12
9/30/12
Special Committee formed by the Companys Board of Directors
10/7/12 -
10/14/12
Special Committee appointed Sullivan & Cromwell as its legal advisor and
Peter J. Solomon Company as its financial advisor
|
Chronology of Special Committees Efforts to
Maximize Shareholder Value (contd)
Special Committee, upon review of 1/17/13 Revised Proposal, informed the
Family that the updated proposal remained insufficient
Special Committee also emphasized that any proposal must include
quarterly dividends, reverse break-fees and majority of minority
shareholder approval condition
41
1/30/13
1/17/13
Family sent a letter to the Special Committee increasing its merger price to
$17.50
Draft merger agreement included suspension of $0.15 quarterly
dividends
Dr. Cowen and Zev Weiss met to discuss price; Mr. Weiss indicated that the
Family may be willing to consider $18.00 per share plus regular quarterly
dividend, but no such proposal was made
Dr. Cowen stated that he did not believe that price would be acceptable
to the Special Committee
2/27/13
12/19/12
Zev Weiss stated that the Family had significant concerns about obtaining
financing on terms acceptable to them that would support the proposed
$17.18 per share price |
Chronology of Special Committees Efforts to
Maximize Shareholder Value (contd)
Special
Committee
and
representatives
of
Sullivan
&
Cromwell
and
PJSC
negotiated
price
and
transaction
agreements
with
the
Family
and its
advisors
Zev Weiss indicated that the Family had no ability and no intention to pay
more than $18.00 per share, plus regular quarterly dividends
Dr. Cowen, on behalf of the Special Committee, indicated that the Special
Committees desired that shareholders receive $18.75 per share plus
ordinary course dividends
Zev Weiss indicated the Family could pay $18.25 per share with no
dividend
Dr. Cowen communicated a proposal of $18.20 plus one quarterly
dividend, which was accepted by the Family
42
3/2/13 -
3/28/13
Parties executed the merger agreement and related agreements
3/29/13 |
Chronology of Special Committees Efforts to
Maximize Shareholder Value (contd)
Zev Weiss indicated that the Family would be willing to consider
raising the price to $19.00 per share, with an increase in the cap on
expenses payable to the Family if the merger were not approved by
shareholders
43
6/23/13
Dr. Cowen, on behalf of the Special Committee, communicated to Zev
Weiss that the Special Committee had received new financial information
pertaining to AGs operating results, and was therefore revisiting its
recommendation of the deal at $18.20 per share
The Special Committee did not make any decision to modify or
withdraw its recommendation
Mr. Weiss communicates to Dr. Cowen that the financial
improvements cited by the Special Committee were neither material
nor reflective of any fundamental improvement in the trajectory of
AGs business
6/26/13 |
Chronology of Special Committees Efforts to
Maximize Shareholder Value (contd)
The
Family
obtained
all
required
consents
from
financing
sources
to
raise
offer
price
The Family delivered a letter to the Special Committee offer to $19.00 per
share, with an increase in the cap on payable expenses
44
6/27/13
Dr. Cowen, on behalf of the Special Committee, reiterated the Special
Committees position of $19.50 per share
Zev Weiss reiterated that the Family would not pay additional consideration
above $19.00 per share, but indicated that it would be willing to keep the payable
expenses cap unchanged from the original maximum amount, if the Special
Committee agreed to consider in its sole discretion expense reimbursements
in excess of that amount for documented expenses
7/1/13
Dr.
Cowen,
on
behalf
of
the
Special
Committee,
communicated
to
Zev
Weiss
that
the
Special
Committee
would
be
willing
to
recommend
a
price
increase
to
$19.50
per
share
and
a
reciprocal,
proportionate
increase
in
the
amount
of
the
expense reimbursement cap
Zev Weiss indicated that the Family would not be supportive of an increase
to $19.50
7/2/13 |
Chronology of Special Committees Efforts to
Maximize Shareholder Value (contd)
45
7/3/13
PJSC gave the Special Committee an oral fairness opinion
(subsequently confirmed in writing) as to the price of $19.00 per
share, and the Special Committee accepted the Familys proposal
(including the unchanged expense reimbursement cap with excess
amounts reimbursed at the Special Committees sole discretion)
Parties executed the amendment to the merger agreement
|
Special
Committee Qualifications
Dr. Scott S. Cowen
Dr. Cowen has been a director since 1989. Dr. Cowen is President
and Seymour S Goodman Professor of Management and Professor of Economics,
Tulane University, a position he has held since 1998. Prior to that, Dr. Cowen
served as Dean and Albert J. Weatherhead, III Professor of Management,
Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve University. Dr.
Cowen has served as a director of Forest City Enterprises, Inc. since 1989
and Newell Rubbermaid Inc. (a publicly-held consumer
home
products
company)
since
1999.
He
was
a
director
of
Jo-Ann
Stores,
Inc.
(a
publicly-held
specialty
store
retailer)
from
1987
until
its
sale
in
2011.
Dr.
Cowen
has
been a member of the Board of Overseers of TIAA-CREF (a private financial
services company) since 2010. Dr. Cowen participates as a board member
of a number of civic
organizations, including as Chair of the Southeast Louisiana Regional Airport
Authority, and
as
a
member
of
the
New
Orleans
Business
Council,
New
Orleans
Public
Belt
Railroad and Greater New Orleans Inc.
46 |
Special
Committee Qualifications (contd)
William E. MacDonald, III
Mr. MacDonald has been a director since 2007. Mr.
MacDonald was Vice Chairman and member of the Office of the Chairman of National
City Corporation from 2001 until his retirement in 2006. Prior to that, Mr.
MacDonald held various
management
positions
within
National
City
over
more
than
30
years
including
Senior
Executive
Vice
President
of
National
City
Corporation
and
President
and
Chief
Executive Officer of National Citys Ohio Bank. Mr. MacDonald has served as a
director of Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (a publicly-held
manufacturer and reseller of welding and cutting products) since 2007. He
was a director of The Lamson & Sessions Co. (a publicly-held
manufacturer of thermoplastic conduit, fittings and electrical switch and
outlet boxes) from 2006 to 2007 and MTC Technologies, Inc. (a publicly-held
provider of technical and professional services and equipment integration
for the U.S. military and intelligence agencies) from 2002 to 2007, when in
each case the boards were dismantled as a result of divestiture. Mr.
MacDonald has served as a director of Segmint Inc. (a privately held
technology-based company helping financial institutions and their
marketing partners build digital customer relationships) since 2008. Mr. MacDonald
participates
as
a
board
member
of
a
number
of
civic,
health
care
and
other
non-profit
organizations including The Cleveland Clinic Foundation and is Trustee Emeritus of
The Diversity Center and WVIZ/PBS and 90.3 Ideastream.
47 |
Special
Committee Qualifications (contd)
Jeffrey D. Dunn
Mr. Dunn has been a director since 2007. Mr. Dunn served as
president and chief executive officer and was a director of HIT Entertainment
Limited (a childrens entertainment company), from 2008 until the
company was sold in February 2012. Before that, Mr. Dunn was a private
investor, and was employed by MTV Networks (an entertainment company and a
division of Viacom, Inc., a publicly-held company) as Chief Operating
Officer of the Nickelodeon Networks Group and the President of Nickelodeon
Film Enterprises from 1993 to 2006. Prior to that time, Mr. Dunn was
employed as Director of Marketing, Arthur D. Little (a publicly-held management
consulting
firm),
from
1991
to
1993,
Director
of
Marketing,
Bank
of
Boston
(a
Boston,
Massachusetts banking institution) from 1986 to 1991, and Associate International
Director, Time Magazine (a weekly news magazine) and General Manager,
Discover Magazine (monthly general science magazine) from 1977 to
1986. 48 |
Special
Committee Qualifications (contd)
Michael J. Merriman, Jr.
Mr. Merriman has been a director since 2006. Mr. Merriman
has been an operating advisor with Resilience Capital Partners, LLC (a private
equity firm)
since
2008.
From
2006
until
its
sale
in
2007,
Mr.
Merriman
served
as
Chief
Executive Officer of The Lamson & Sessions Co. Prior to joining Lamson &
Sessions, Mr. Merriman
served
as
the
Senior
Vice
President
and
Chief
Financial
Officer
of
American
Greetings from 2005 until 2006. He served as the President and Chief Executive
Officer of Royal Appliance Mfg. Co. (a publicly-held manufacturer and
marketer of Dirt Devil vacuum cleaners) from 1995 until 2004, was its Chief
Financial Officer from 1992 to 1995, and served on the board of directors
from 1993 to 2004. Mr. Merriman served as a director of RC2 Corporation (a
publicly-held manufacturer of pre-school toys and infant products)
from 2004 until its sale in 2011. Mr. Merriman has served as a director of
Nordson Corporation (a publicly-held manufacturer of equipment used for
precision dispensing, testing and inspection, surface preparation and
curing) since 2008; OMNOVA Solutions Inc. (a publicly-held innovator of
emulsion polymers, specialty chemicals, and decorative and functional
surfaces) since 2008; and Regis Corporation (a publicly-held operator of
beauty salons in North America and Europe, including Supercuts, Smart Style
Salons in Wal-Mart stores and Regis Salons in malls) since 2011. Mr.
Merriman is also a director of Boys Hope Girls Hope of Northeast Ohio, True Hero,
Inc. and John Carroll University.
49 |
Forward-Looking Statements
Statements about the expected timing, completion and effects of the proposed
transaction and all other statements in this communication, other than historical
facts, constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the
safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of
1995. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these
forward-looking statements and any such forward-looking statements
are qualified in their entirety by reference to the following cautionary
statements. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date hereof and
are based on current expectations and involve a number of assumptions, risks
and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially
from such forward- looking statements. The Company may not be able to
complete the proposed transaction on the terms described above or other
acceptable terms or at all because of a number of
factors, including the failure to obtain shareholder approval or
the failure to satisfy other
closing conditions. Factors that may affect the business or financial results of
the Company are described in the risk factors included in the Companys
filings with the SEC, including the Companys 2013 Annual Report on
Form 10-K. The Company expressly disclaims a duty to provide updates to
forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information,
future events or other occurrences. 50 |
Additional Information and Where to Find It
In connection with the proposed merger transaction, the Company filed with the SEC
a definitive proxy statement and other relevant documents, including a form
of proxy card, on July 10, 2013. The definitive proxy statement and a
form of proxy card have been mailed to the Company's shareholders.
This investor presentation does not constitute a solicitation of any vote or
approval. Shareholders are urged to read the proxy statement and any other
documents filed with the SEC in connection with the proposed merger or
incorporated by reference in the proxy statement because they contain important
information about the proposed merger.
Investors will be able to obtain a free copy of documents filed with the SEC at the
SECs website
at
http://www.sec.gov.
In
addition,
investors
may
obtain
a
free
copy
of
the
Companys filings with the SEC from the Companys website at
http://investors.americangreetings.com
or
by
directing
a
request
to
the
Companys
Corporate Secretary at our World Headquarters at One American Road, Cleveland, Ohio
44144-2398, or via email to
investor.relations@amgreetings.com. 51 |
Participants in the Solicitation
The Company and its directors, executive officers and certain other members of
management
and
employees
of
the
Company
may
be
deemed
participants
in
the
solicitation of proxies from shareholders of the Company in favor of the proposed
merger. Information regarding the persons who may, under the rules of the
SEC, be considered participants in the solicitation of the shareholders of
the Company in connection with the proposed merger is set forth in the
definitive proxy statement and the other relevant documents filed with the
SEC. You can find information about certain of the Companys executive
officers and its directors in its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the
fiscal year ended February 28, 2013.
52 |