Two weeks ago, I rhetorically asked if investors should be buying into the cyclical recovery theme (see Buy the cyclical and reflation trade?). Global green shoots of recovery were appearing, but I identified the "uncertainty of additional fiscal stimulus" as a key risk to the cyclical rebound thesis. Now that Biden appears to be winning the White House, but constrained by a Republican-controlled Senate, it's time to revisit the recovery question.
Regular readers know that I consider the global economy as three trade blocs, NAFTA, Europe, and Asia dominated by China. It is within that framework that I examine the global reflation question.
Is the global economy emerging from a global recession?
The full post can be found here.
