Document
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 10-Q
Quarterly Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
For the Quarterly Period Ended September 30, 2016
 
 
 
Commission File No. 1-13653 

afglogo.jpg


AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.
Incorporated under the Laws of Ohio
 
IRS Employer I.D. No. 31-1544320
301 East Fourth Street, Cincinnati, Ohio 45202
(513) 579-2121
Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months, and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days. Yes þ No ¨
Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant has submitted electronically and posted on its corporate Web site, if any, every Interactive Data File required to be submitted and posted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the Registrant was required to submit and post such files). Yes þ No ¨
Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer or a smaller reporting company. See definitions of “large accelerated filer,” “accelerated filer” and “smaller reporting company” in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.
          Large accelerated filer  þ Accelerated filer  ¨ Non-accelerated filer  ¨ Smaller reporting company  ¨
Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act). Yes ¨ No þ
As of November 1, 2016, there were 86,845,988 shares of the Registrant’s Common Stock outstanding, excluding 14.9 million shares owned by subsidiaries.


______________________________________________________________________________________________________

Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

TABLE OF CONTENTS
 
 
 
 
Page
 
 
 
 
 


Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

PART I
ITEM I — FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET (UNAUDITED)
(Dollars in Millions)
 
September 30,
2016
 
December 31,
2015
Assets:
 
 
 
Cash and cash equivalents
$
1,639

 
$
1,220

Investments:
 
 
 
Fixed maturities, available for sale at fair value (amortized cost — $33,586 and $31,565)
35,394

 
32,284

Fixed maturities, trading at fair value
348

 
254

Equity securities, available for sale at fair value (cost — $1,392 and $1,469)
1,553

 
1,553

Equity securities, trading at fair value
86

 
166

Mortgage loans
1,180

 
1,067

Policy loans
194

 
201

Real estate and other investments
1,411

 
991

Total cash and investments
41,805

 
37,736

Recoverables from reinsurers
2,814

 
2,636

Prepaid reinsurance premiums
634

 
480

Agents’ balances and premiums receivable
1,029

 
937

Deferred policy acquisition costs
867

 
1,184

Assets of managed investment entities
4,312

 
4,047

Other receivables
1,391

 
820

Variable annuity assets (separate accounts)
606

 
608

Other assets
1,188

 
1,190

Goodwill
199

 
199

Total assets
$
54,845

 
$
49,837

 
 
 
 
Liabilities and Equity:
 
 
 
Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses
$
8,661

 
$
8,127

Unearned premiums
2,328

 
2,060

Annuity benefits accumulated
29,222

 
26,622

Life, accident and health reserves
700

 
705

Payable to reinsurers
835

 
591

Liabilities of managed investment entities
4,067

 
3,781

Long-term debt
1,300

 
998

Variable annuity liabilities (separate accounts)
606

 
608

Other liabilities
1,768

 
1,575

Total liabilities
49,487

 
45,067

Shareholders’ equity:
 
 
 
Common Stock, no par value
       — 200,000,000 shares authorized
       — 86,812,651 and 87,474,452 shares outstanding
87

 
87

Capital surplus
1,242

 
1,214

Retained earnings
3,079

 
2,987

Accumulated other comprehensive income, net of tax
753

 
304

Total shareholders’ equity
5,161

 
4,592

Noncontrolling interests
197

 
178

Total equity
5,358

 
4,770

Total liabilities and equity
$
54,845

 
$
49,837


2
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF EARNINGS (UNAUDITED)
(In Millions, Except Per Share Data)
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
 
2016
 
2015
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property and casualty insurance net earned premiums
$
1,159

 
$
1,173

 
$
3,184

 
$
3,104

Life, accident and health net earned premiums
6

 
28

 
18

 
80

Net investment income
433

 
425

 
1,267

 
1,217

Realized gains (losses) on:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Securities (*)
2

 
(16
)
 
(32
)
 
2

Subsidiaries
—

 
5

 
2

 
(157
)
Income (loss) of managed investment entities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Investment income
48

 
40

 
141

 
112

Gain (loss) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities
11

 
(11
)
 
9

 
(16
)
Other income
46

 
43

 
172

 
185

Total revenues
1,705

 
1,687

 
4,761

 
4,527

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Costs and Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property and casualty insurance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Losses and loss adjustment expenses
765

 
825

 
2,033

 
2,002

Commissions and other underwriting expenses
356

 
336

 
1,038

 
987

Annuity benefits
189

 
208

 
640

 
543

Life, accident and health benefits
8

 
31

 
26

 
96

Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses
54

 
49

 
131

 
156

Interest charges on borrowed money
19

 
18

 
56

 
58

Expenses of managed investment entities
38

 
28

 
109

 
80

Other expenses
98

 
93

 
258

 
250

Total costs and expenses
1,527

 
1,588

 
4,291

 
4,172

Earnings before income taxes
178

 
99

 
470

 
355

Provision for income taxes
65

 
33

 
190

 
115

Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests
113

 
66

 
280

 
240

Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests
4

 
3

 
16

 
17

Net Earnings Attributable to Shareholders
$
109

 
$
63

 
$
264

 
$
223

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Earnings Attributable to Shareholders per Common Share:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Basic
$
1.25

 
$
0.72

 
$
3.04

 
$
2.54

Diluted
$
1.23

 
$
0.71

 
$
2.98

 
$
2.49

Average number of Common Shares:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Basic
86.9

 
87.5

 
86.8

 
87.6

Diluted
88.5

 
89.3

 
88.4

 
89.4

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash dividends per Common Share
$
0.28

 
$
0.25

 
$
0.84

 
$
0.75

________________________________________
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(*) Consists of the following:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains before impairments
$
18

 
$
19

 
$
75

 
$
71

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Losses on securities with impairment
(16
)
 
(35
)
 
(106
)
 
(69
)
Non-credit portion recognized in other comprehensive income (loss)
—

 
—

 
(1
)
 
—

Impairment charges recognized in earnings
(16
)
 
(35
)
 
(107
)
 
(69
)
Total realized gains (losses) on securities
$
2

 
$
(16
)
 
$
(32
)
 
$
2


3
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (UNAUDITED)
(In Millions)
 
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
 
2016
 
2015
Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests
$
113

 
$
66

 
$
280

 
$
240

Other comprehensive income (loss), net of tax:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net unrealized gains (losses) on securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unrealized holding gains (losses) on securities arising during the period
89

 
(110
)
 
427

 
(255
)
Reclassification adjustment for realized (gains) losses included in net earnings
(1
)
 
10

 
20

 
(3
)
Total net unrealized gains (losses) on securities
88

 
(100
)
 
447

 
(258
)
Net unrealized gains on cash flow hedges
—

 
2

 
4

 
2

Foreign currency translation adjustments
(3
)
 
(7
)
 
4

 
(15
)
Pension and other postretirement plans adjustments
—

 
1

 
1

 
1

Other comprehensive income (loss), net of tax
85

 
(104
)
 
456

 
(270
)
Total comprehensive income (loss), net of tax
198

 
(38
)
 
736

 
(30
)
Less: Comprehensive income attributable to noncontrolling interests
5

 
1

 
23

 
13

Comprehensive income (loss) attributable to shareholders
$
193

 
$
(39
)
 
$
713

 
$
(43
)


4
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN EQUITY (UNAUDITED)
(Dollars in Millions)
 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders’ Equity
 
 
 
 
Common
 
 
Common Stock
and Capital
 
Retained Earnings
 
Accumulated
Other Comp.
 
 
 
Noncon-
trolling
 
Total
Shares
 
 
Surplus
 
Approp.
 
Unapprop.
 
Income
 
Total
 
Interests
 
Equity
Balance at December 31, 2015
87,474,452

 
 
$
1,301

 
$
—

 
$
2,987

 
$
304

 
$
4,592

 
$
178

 
$
4,770

Net earnings
—

 
 
—

 
—

 
264

 
—

 
264

 
16

 
280

Other comprehensive income
—

 
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
449

 
449

 
7

 
456

Dividends on Common Stock
—

 
 
—

 
—

 
(73
)
 
—

 
(73
)
 
—

 
(73
)
Shares issued:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Exercise of stock options
753,095

 
 
26

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
26

 
—

 
26

Restricted stock awards
318,940

 
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

Other benefit plans
82,087

 
 
6

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
6

 
—

 
6

Dividend reinvestment plan
10,930

 
 
1

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
1

 
—

 
1

Stock-based compensation:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Expense
—

 
 
15

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
15

 
—

 
15

Excess tax benefits
—

 
 
7

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
7

 
—

 
7

Shares acquired and retired
(1,796,009
)
 
 
(27
)
 
—

 
(97
)
 
—

 
(124
)
 
—

 
(124
)
Shares exchanged — benefit plans
(28,059
)
 
 
—

 
—

 
(2
)
 
—

 
(2
)
 
—

 
(2
)
Forfeitures of restricted stock
(2,785
)
 
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

Other
—

 
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(4
)
 
(4
)
Balance at September 30, 2016
86,812,651

 
 
$
1,329

 
$
—

 
$
3,079

 
$
753

 
$
5,161

 
$
197

 
$
5,358

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Balance at December 31, 2014
87,708,793

 
 
$
1,240

 
$
(2
)
 
$
2,914

 
$
727

 
$
4,879

 
$
175

 
$
5,054

Cumulative effect of accounting change
—

 
 
—

 
2

 
—

 
—

 
2

 
—

 
2

Net earnings
—

 
 
—

 
—

 
223

 
—

 
223

 
17

 
240

Other comprehensive loss
—

 
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(266
)
 
(266
)
 
(4
)
 
(270
)
Dividends on Common Stock
—

 
 
—

 
—

 
(66
)
 
—

 
(66
)
 
—

 
(66
)
Shares issued:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 

Exercise of stock options
1,157,288

 
 
37

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
37

 
—

 
37

Restricted stock awards
171,130

 
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

Other benefit plans
97,817

 
 
6

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
6

 
—

 
6

Dividend reinvestment plan
10,359

 
 
1

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
1

 
—

 
1

Stock-based compensation:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Expense
—

 
 
14

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
14

 
—

 
14

Excess tax benefits
—

 
 
9

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
9

 
—

 
9

Shares acquired and retired
(1,767,240
)
 
 
(25
)
 
—

 
(88
)
 
—

 
(113
)
 
—

 
(113
)
Shares exchanged — benefit plans
(33,795
)
 
 
—

 
—

 
(2
)
 
—

 
(2
)
 
—

 
(2
)
Forfeitures of restricted stock
(17,180
)
 
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

Other
—

 
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(6
)
 
(6
)
Balance at September 30, 2015
87,327,172

 
 
$
1,282

 
$
—

 
$
2,981

 
$
461

 
$
4,724

 
$
182

 
$
4,906


5
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS (UNAUDITED)
(In Millions)
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
Operating Activities:
 
 
 
Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests
$
280

 
$
240

Adjustments:
 
 
 
Depreciation and amortization
91

 
118

Annuity benefits
640

 
543

Realized (gains) losses on investing activities
(6
)
 
90

Net (purchases) sales of trading securities
73

 
(9
)
Deferred annuity and life policy acquisition costs
(172
)
 
(164
)
Change in:
 
 
 
Reinsurance and other receivables
(972
)
 
(468
)
Other assets
(257
)
 
68

Insurance claims and reserves
796

 
491

Payable to reinsurers
244

 
79

Other liabilities
230

 
(45
)
Managed investment entities’ assets/liabilities
(235
)
 
(53
)
Other operating activities, net
(39
)
 
17

Net cash provided by operating activities
673

 
907

 
 
 
 
Investing Activities:
 
 
 
Purchases of:
 
 
 
Fixed maturities
(5,604
)
 
(5,395
)
Equity securities
(143
)
 
(449
)
Mortgage loans
(310
)
 
(105
)
Real estate, property and equipment
(37
)
 
(65
)
Proceeds from:
 
 
 
Maturities and redemptions of fixed maturities
3,111

 
2,426

Repayments of mortgage loans
197

 
231

Sales of fixed maturities
496

 
235

Sales of equity securities
193

 
193

Sales of real estate, property and equipment
45

 
96

Managed investment entities:
 
 
 
Purchases of investments
(1,405
)
 
(1,167
)
Proceeds from sales and redemptions of investments
1,381

 
685

Other investing activities, net
(370
)
 
(100
)
Net cash used in investing activities
(2,446
)
 
(3,415
)
 
 
 
 
Financing Activities:
 
 
 
Annuity receipts
3,474

 
3,333

Annuity surrenders, benefits and withdrawals
(1,726
)
 
(1,487
)
Net transfers from variable annuity assets
29

 
32

Additional long-term borrowings
302

 
—

Reductions of long-term debt
—

 
(182
)
Issuances of managed investment entities’ liabilities
1,028

 
693

Retirements of managed investment entities’ liabilities
(747
)
 
(192
)
Issuances of Common Stock
34

 
47

Repurchases of Common Stock
(124
)
 
(113
)
Cash dividends paid on Common Stock
(72
)
 
(65
)
Other financing activities, net
(6
)
 
(7
)
Net cash provided by financing activities
2,192

 
2,059

Net Change in Cash and Cash Equivalents
419

 
(449
)
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period
1,220

 
1,343

Cash and cash equivalents at end of period
$
1,639

 
$
894


6
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 


INDEX TO NOTES
 
 
 
 
 
 
A.
Accounting Policies
 
H.
Managed Investment Entities
 
B.
Acquisition and Sale of Businesses
 
I.
Goodwill and Other Intangibles
 
C.
Segments of Operations
 
J.
Long-Term Debt
 
D.
Fair Value Measurements
 
K.
Shareholders’ Equity
 
E.
Investments
 
L.
Income Taxes
 
F.
Derivatives
 
M.
Contingencies
 
G.
Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

A.     Accounting Policies

Basis of Presentation   The accompanying consolidated financial statements for American Financial Group, Inc. and its subsidiaries (“AFG”) are unaudited; however, management believes that all adjustments (consisting only of normal recurring accruals unless otherwise disclosed herein) necessary for fair presentation have been made. The results of operations for interim periods are not necessarily indicative of results to be expected for the year. The financial statements have been prepared in accordance with the instructions to Form 10-Q and, therefore, do not include all information and footnotes necessary to be in conformity with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”).
 
Certain reclassifications have been made to prior periods to conform to the current year’s presentation. All significant intercompany balances and transactions have been eliminated. The results of operations of companies since their formation or acquisition are included in the consolidated financial statements. Events or transactions occurring subsequent to September 30, 2016, and prior to the filing of this Form 10-Q, have been evaluated for potential recognition or disclosure herein.
 
The preparation of the financial statements requires management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the amounts reported in the financial statements and accompanying notes. Changes in circumstances could cause actual results to differ materially from those estimates.

Fair Value Measurements   Accounting standards define fair value as the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability (an exit price) in an orderly transaction between market participants on the measurement date. The standards establish a hierarchy of valuation techniques based on whether the assumptions that market participants would use in pricing the asset or liability (“inputs”) are observable or unobservable. Observable inputs reflect market data obtained from independent sources, while unobservable inputs reflect AFG’s assumptions about the assumptions market participants would use in pricing the asset or liability. AFG did not have any significant nonrecurring fair value measurements in the first nine months of 2016.

Investments   Fixed maturity and equity securities classified as “available for sale” are reported at fair value with unrealized gains and losses included in accumulated other comprehensive income (“AOCI”) in AFG’s Balance Sheet. Fixed maturity and equity securities classified as “trading” are reported at fair value with changes in unrealized holding gains or losses during the period included in net investment income. Mortgage and policy loans are carried primarily at the aggregate unpaid balance.

In January 2016, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”) issued Accounting Standards Update (“ASU”) 2016-01, which, among other things, will require all equity securities currently classified as “available for sale” to be reported at fair value, with holding gains and losses recognized in net income, instead of AOCI. AFG will be required to adopt this guidance effective January 1, 2018.

Premiums and discounts on fixed maturity securities are amortized using the interest method. Mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”) are amortized over a period based on estimated future principal payments, including prepayments. Prepayment assumptions are reviewed periodically and adjusted to reflect actual prepayments and changes in expectations.
 
Gains or losses on securities are determined on the specific identification basis. When a decline in the value of a specific investment is considered to be other-than-temporary at the balance sheet date, a provision for impairment is charged to earnings (included in realized gains (losses) on securities) and the cost basis of that investment is reduced. If management can assert that it does not intend to sell an impaired fixed maturity security and it is not more likely than not that it will have to sell the security

7
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


before recovery of its amortized cost basis, then the other-than-temporary impairment is separated into two components: (i) the amount related to credit losses (recorded in earnings) and (ii) the amount related to all other factors (recorded in other comprehensive income). The credit-related portion of an other-than-temporary impairment is measured by comparing a security’s amortized cost to the present value of its current expected cash flows discounted at its effective yield prior to the impairment charge. Both components are shown in the statement of earnings. If management intends to sell an impaired security, or it is more likely than not that it will be required to sell the security before recovery, an impairment charge to earnings is recorded to reduce the amortized cost of that security to fair value.
 
Derivatives   Derivatives included in AFG’s Balance Sheet are recorded at fair value. Changes in fair value of derivatives are included in earnings, unless the derivatives are designated and qualify as highly effective cash flow hedges. Derivatives that do not qualify for hedge accounting under GAAP consist primarily of (i) components of certain fixed maturity securities (primarily interest-only MBS) and (ii) the equity-based component of certain annuity products (included in annuity benefits accumulated) and related call options (included in other investments) designed to be consistent with the characteristics of the liabilities and used to mitigate the risk embedded in those annuity products.

To qualify for hedge accounting, at the inception of a derivative contract, AFG formally documents the relationship between the terms of the hedge and the hedged items and its risk management objective. This documentation includes defining how hedge effectiveness and ineffectiveness will be measured on a retrospective and prospective basis.

Changes in the fair value of derivatives that are designated and qualify as highly effective cash flow hedges are recorded in AOCI and are reclassified into earnings when the variability of the cash flows from the hedged items impacts earnings. Any hedge ineffectiveness is immediately recorded in current period earnings. When the change in the fair value of a qualifying cash flow hedge is included in earnings, it is included in the same line item in the statement of earnings as the cash flows from the hedged item. AFG uses interest rate swaps that are designated and qualify as highly effective cash flow hedges to mitigate interest rate risk related to certain floating-rate securities included in AFG’s portfolio of fixed maturity securities.

For derivatives that are designated and qualify as highly effective fair value hedges, changes in the fair value of the derivative, along with changes in the fair value of the hedged item attributable to the hedged risk, are recognized in current period earnings. AFG has entered into an interest rate swap that qualifies as a highly effective fair value hedge to mitigate the interest rate risk associated with fixed-rate long-term debt by economically converting certain fixed-rate debt obligations to floating-rate obligations. Since the terms of the swap match the terms of the hedged debt, changes in the fair value of the swap are offset by changes in the fair value of the hedged debt attributable to changes in interest rates. Accordingly, the net impact on AFG’s current period earnings is that the interest expense associated with the hedged debt is effectively recorded at the floating rate.

Goodwill   Goodwill represents the excess of cost of subsidiaries over AFG’s equity in their underlying net assets. Goodwill is not amortized, but is subject to an impairment test at least annually. An entity is not required to complete the quantitative annual goodwill impairment test on a reporting unit if the entity elects to perform a qualitative analysis and determines that it is more likely than not that the reporting unit’s fair value exceeds its carrying amount.
 
Reinsurance   Amounts recoverable from reinsurers are estimated in a manner consistent with the claim liability associated with the reinsured policies. AFG’s property and casualty insurance subsidiaries report as assets (i) the estimated reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses, including an estimate for losses incurred but not reported, and (ii) amounts paid or due to reinsurers applicable to the unexpired terms of policies in force. Payable to reinsurers includes ceded premiums due to reinsurers, as well as ceded premiums retained by AFG’s property and casualty insurance subsidiaries under contracts to fund ceded losses as they become due. AFG’s insurance subsidiaries also assume reinsurance from other companies. Earnings on reinsurance assumed is recognized based on information received from ceding companies.
 
An AFG subsidiary cedes life insurance policies to a third party on a funds withheld basis whereby the subsidiary retains the assets (securities) associated with the reinsurance contract. Interest is credited to the reinsurer based on the actual investment performance of the retained assets. This reinsurance contract is considered to contain an embedded derivative (that must be adjusted to fair value) because the yield on the payable is based on a specific block of the ceding company’s assets, rather than the overall creditworthiness of the ceding company. AFG determined that changes in the fair value of the underlying portfolio of fixed maturity securities is an appropriate measure of the value of the embedded derivative. The securities related to this contract are classified as “trading.” The adjustment to fair value on the embedded derivative offsets the investment income recorded on the adjustment to fair value of the related trading portfolio.
 

8
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs (“DPAC”)   Policy acquisition costs (principally commissions, premium taxes and certain underwriting and policy issuance costs) directly related to the successful acquisition or renewal of an insurance contract are deferred. DPAC also includes capitalized costs associated with sales inducements offered to fixed annuity policyholders such as enhanced interest rates and premium and persistency bonuses.
 
For the property and casualty companies, DPAC is limited based upon recoverability without any consideration for anticipated investment income and is charged against income ratably over the terms of the related policies. A premium deficiency is recognized if the sum of expected claims costs, claims adjustment expenses and unamortized acquisition costs exceed the related unearned premiums. A premium deficiency is first recognized by charging any unamortized acquisition costs to expense to the extent required to eliminate the deficiency. If the premium deficiency is greater than unamortized acquisition costs, a liability is accrued for the excess deficiency and reported with unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses.

DPAC related to annuities is deferred to the extent deemed recoverable and amortized, with interest, in relation to the present value of actual and expected gross profits on the policies. Expected gross profits consist principally of estimated future investment margin (estimated future net investment income less interest credited on policyholder funds) and surrender, mortality, and other life and annuity policy charges, less death, annuitization and guaranteed withdrawal benefits in excess of account balances and estimated future policy administration expenses. To the extent that realized gains and losses result in adjustments to the amortization of DPAC related to annuities, such adjustments are reflected as components of realized gains (losses) on securities.

DPAC related to traditional life and health insurance is amortized over the expected premium paying period of the related policies, in proportion to the ratio of annual premium revenues to total anticipated premium revenues. See “Life, Accident and Health Reserves” below for details on the impact of loss recognition on the accounting for traditional life and health insurance contracts.

DPAC includes the present value of future profits on business in force of annuity and life, accident and health insurance companies acquired (“PVFP”). PVFP represents the portion of the costs to acquire companies that is allocated to the value of the right to receive future cash flows from insurance contracts existing at the date of acquisition. PVFP is amortized with interest in relation to expected gross profits of the acquired policies for annuities and universal life products and in relation to the premium paying period for traditional life and health insurance products.

DPAC and certain other balance sheet amounts related to annuity, long-term care and life businesses are also adjusted, net of tax, for the change in expense that would have been recorded if the unrealized gains (losses) from securities had actually been realized. These adjustments are included in unrealized gains (losses) on marketable securities, a component of AOCI in AFG’s Balance Sheet.
 
Managed Investment Entities   A company is considered the primary beneficiary of, and therefore must consolidate, a variable interest entity (“VIE”) based primarily on its ability to direct the activities of the VIE that most significantly impact that entity’s economic performance and the obligation to absorb losses of, or receive benefits from, the entity that could potentially be significant to the VIE.
 
AFG manages, and has investments in, collateralized loan obligations (“CLOs”) that are VIEs (see Note H — “Managed Investment Entities”). AFG has determined that it is the primary beneficiary of the CLOs because (i) its role as asset manager gives it the power to direct the activities that most significantly impact the economic performance of the CLOs and (ii) through its investment in the CLO debt tranches, it has exposure to CLO losses (limited to the amount AFG invested) and the right to receive CLO benefits that could potentially be significant to the CLOs.

On January 1, 2016, AFG adopted ASU 2015-02, which amended certain consolidation accounting guidance, including the VIE guidance that applies to collateralized financing entities such as CLOs. The new guidance affects how fee arrangements with CLO asset managers impact the determination of the primary beneficiary of those entities. Due to the significance of AFG’s investments in the CLOs that it manages, the new guidance did not impact the consolidation of AFG’s currently outstanding CLOs. The new guidance also impacted the consolidation analysis that applies to limited partnerships and similar entities, but did not result in a change to the accounting for AFG’s existing investments in those entities.

Because AFG has no right to use the CLO assets and no obligation to pay the CLO liabilities, the assets and liabilities of the CLOs are shown separately in AFG’s Balance Sheet. AFG has elected the fair value option for reporting on the CLO assets and

9
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


liabilities to improve the transparency of financial reporting related to the CLOs. The net gain or loss from accounting for the CLO assets and liabilities at fair value is presented separately in AFG’s Statement of Earnings.

Effective January 1, 2015, AFG adopted (on a modified retrospective basis) ASU 2014-13, which addresses the diversity in practice regarding the accounting for assets and liabilities of a consolidated collateralized financing entity (such as a CLO) when an election has been made to account for that entity’s assets and liabilities at fair value. The fair values of a CLO’s assets may differ from the separately measured fair values of its liabilities even though the CLO liabilities only have recourse to the CLO assets. Under the new guidance, AFG elected to set the carrying value of the CLO liabilities equal to the fair value of the CLO assets (which have more observable fair values) as an alternative to reporting those liabilities at a separately measured fair value. CLO earnings attributable to AFG’s shareholders continue to be measured by the change in the fair value of AFG’s investments in the CLOs and management fees earned.

Prior to the adoption of ASU 2014-13, measuring both the CLO assets and CLO liabilities at separately determined fair values resulted in a difference between the carrying value of the CLO assets and the carrying value of the CLO liabilities that was not attributable to AFG’s ownership interest in the CLOs. This difference was recorded as “appropriated retained earnings — managed investment entities” in AFG’s Balance Sheet. In accordance with the guidance adopted in 2015, the amount reported as “appropriated retained earnings — managed investment entities” at December 31, 2014 was reclassified to “liabilities of managed investment entities” on January 1, 2015 as the cumulative effect of an accounting change.

Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses   The net liabilities stated for unpaid claims and for expenses of investigation and adjustment of unpaid claims represent management’s best estimate and are based upon (i) the accumulation of case estimates for losses reported prior to the close of the accounting period on direct business written; (ii) estimates received from ceding reinsurers and insurance pools and associations; (iii) estimates of unreported losses (including possible development on known claims) based on past experience; (iv) estimates based on experience of expenses for investigating and adjusting claims; and (v) the current state of the law and coverage litigation. Establishing reserves for asbestos, environmental and other mass tort claims involves considerably more judgment than other types of claims due to, among other things, inconsistent court decisions, an increase in bankruptcy filings as a result of asbestos-related liabilities, novel theories of coverage, and judicial interpretations that often expand theories of recovery and broaden the scope of coverage.
 
Loss reserve liabilities are subject to the impact of changes in claim amounts and frequency and other factors. Changes in estimates of the liabilities for losses and loss adjustment expenses are reflected in the statement of earnings in the period in which determined. Despite the variability inherent in such estimates, management believes that the liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses are adequate.
 
Annuity Benefits Accumulated   Annuity receipts and benefit payments are recorded as increases or decreases in annuity benefits accumulated rather than as revenue and expense. Increases in this liability for interest credited are charged to expense and decreases for policy charges are credited to other income.
 
For certain products, annuity benefits accumulated also includes reserves for accrued persistency and premium bonuses, guaranteed withdrawals and excess benefits expected to be paid on future deaths and annuitizations (“EDAR”). The liabilities for EDAR and guaranteed withdrawals are accrued for and modified using assumptions consistent with those used in determining DPAC and DPAC amortization, except that amounts are determined in relation to the present value of total expected assessments. Total expected assessments consist principally of estimated future investment margin, surrender, mortality, and other life and annuity policy charges, and unearned revenues once they are recognized as income.
 
Annuity benefits accumulated also includes amounts advanced from the Federal Home Loan Bank of Cincinnati.
 
Unearned Revenue   Certain upfront policy charges on annuities are deferred as unearned revenue (included in other liabilities) and recognized in net earnings (included in other income) using the same assumptions and estimated gross profits used to amortize DPAC.

Life, Accident and Health Reserves   Liabilities for future policy benefits under traditional life, accident and health policies are computed using the net level premium method. Computations are based on the original projections of investment yields, mortality, morbidity and surrenders and include provisions for unfavorable deviations unless a loss recognition event (premium deficiency) occurs. Claim reserves and liabilities established for accident and health claims are modified as necessary to reflect actual experience and developing trends.


10
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


For long-duration contracts (such as traditional life and long-term care policies), loss recognition occurs when, based on current expectations as of the measurement date, existing contract liabilities plus the present value of future premiums (including reasonably expected rate increases) are not expected to cover the present value of future claims payments and related settlement and maintenance costs (excluding overhead) as well as unamortized acquisition costs. If a block of business is determined to be in loss recognition, a charge is recorded in earnings in an amount equal to the excess of the present value of expected future claims costs and unamortized acquisition costs over existing reserves plus the present value of expected future premiums (with no provision for adverse deviation). The charge is recorded first to reduce unamortized acquisition costs and then as an additional reserve (if unamortized acquisition costs have been reduced to zero).

In addition, reserves for traditional life and long-term care policies are subject to adjustment for loss recognition charges that would have been recorded if the unrealized gains from securities had actually been realized. This adjustment is included in unrealized gains (losses) on marketable securities, a component of AOCI in AFG’s Balance Sheet.

Debt Issuance Costs   Debt issuance costs related to AFG’s outstanding debt are amortized over the life of the related debt using the effective interest method. Effective January 1, 2016, AFG adopted (on a retrospective basis) ASU 2015-03, which requires debt issuance costs to be presented in the balance sheet as a direct reduction in the carrying value of long-term debt (consistent with the treatment of debt discounts) with the periodic amortization of such costs included in interest expense. Debt issuance costs related to AFG’s revolving credit facilities will continue to be included in other assets in AFG’s Balance Sheet. Prior to AFG’s adoption of ASU 2015-03, AFG reported unamortized debt issuance costs as a deferred charge asset (included in other assets) in AFG’s Balance Sheet and the periodic amortization was included in other expenses in AFG’s Statement of Earnings. The updated guidance did not affect the overall recognition and measurement guidance for debt issuance costs. Accordingly, the guidance did not have an overall impact on AFG’s Shareholders’ Equity or results of operations.

Variable Annuity Assets and Liabilities   Separate accounts related to variable annuities represent the fair value of deposits invested in underlying investment funds on which AFG earns a fee. Investment funds are selected and may be changed only by the policyholder, who retains all investment risk.

AFG’s variable annuity contracts contain a guaranteed minimum death benefit (“GMDB”) to be paid if the policyholder dies before the annuity payout period commences. In periods of declining equity markets, the GMDB may exceed the value of the policyholder’s account. A GMDB liability is established for future excess death benefits using assumptions together with a range of reasonably possible scenarios for investment fund performance that are consistent with DPAC capitalization and amortization assumptions.

Premium Recognition   Property and casualty premiums are earned generally over the terms of the policies on a pro rata basis. Unearned premiums represent that portion of premiums written which is applicable to the unexpired terms of policies in force. On reinsurance assumed from other insurance companies or written through various underwriting organizations, unearned premiums are based on information received from such companies and organizations. For traditional life, accident and health products, premiums are recognized as revenue when legally collectible from policyholders. For interest-sensitive life and universal life products, premiums are recorded in a policyholder account, which is reflected as a liability. Revenue is recognized as amounts are assessed against the policyholder account for mortality coverage and contract expenses.

Noncontrolling Interests   For balance sheet purposes, noncontrolling interests represents the interests of shareholders other than AFG in consolidated entities. In the statement of earnings, net earnings and losses attributable to noncontrolling interests represents such shareholders’ interest in the earnings and losses of those entities.

Income Taxes   Deferred income taxes are calculated using the liability method. Under this method, deferred income tax assets and liabilities are determined based on differences between financial reporting and tax bases and are measured using enacted tax rates. A valuation allowance is established to reduce total deferred tax assets to an amount that will more likely than not be realized.

AFG recognizes the tax benefits of uncertain tax positions only when the position is more likely than not to be sustained under examination by the appropriate taxing authority. Interest and penalties on AFG’s reserve for uncertain tax positions are recognized as a component of tax expense.

Stock-Based Compensation   All share-based grants are recognized as compensation expense on a straight-line basis over their vesting periods based on their calculated fair value at the date of grant. AFG uses the Black-Scholes pricing model to measure the fair value of employee stock options.

11
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED



Benefit Plans   AFG provides retirement benefits to qualified employees of participating companies through the AFG 401(k) Retirement and Savings Plan, a defined contribution plan. AFG makes all contributions to the retirement fund portion of the plan and matches a percentage of employee contributions to the savings fund. Company contributions are expensed in the year for which they are declared. AFG and many of its subsidiaries provide health care and life insurance benefits to eligible retirees. AFG also provides postemployment benefits to former or inactive employees (primarily those on disability) who were not deemed retired under other company plans. The projected future cost of providing these benefits is expensed over the period employees earn such benefits.

Earnings Per Share   Although basic earnings per share only considers shares of common stock outstanding during the period, the calculation of diluted earnings per share includes the following adjustments to weighted average common shares related to stock-based compensation plans: third quarter of 2016 and 2015 — 1.6 million and 1.8 million; first nine months of 2016 and 2015 — 1.6 million and 1.8 million, respectively.
 
AFG’s weighted average diluted shares outstanding excludes the following anti-dilutive potential common shares related to stock compensation plans: third quarter of 2016 and 2015 — 0.2 million and 0.9 million; first nine months of 2016 and 2015 — 0.6 million and 1.2 million, respectively. Adjustments to net earnings attributable to shareholders in the calculation of diluted earnings per share were nominal in the 2016 and 2015 periods.
 
Statement of Cash Flows   For cash flow purposes, “investing activities” are defined as making and collecting loans and acquiring and disposing of debt or equity instruments and property and equipment. “Financing activities” include obtaining resources from owners and providing them with a return on their investments, borrowing money and repaying amounts borrowed. Annuity receipts, surrenders, benefits and withdrawals are also reflected as financing activities. All other activities are considered “operating.” Short-term investments having original maturities of three months or less when purchased are considered to be cash equivalents for purposes of the financial statements.

B.     Acquisition and Sale of Businesses

Proposed Acquisition of Noncontrolling Interest in National Interstate Corporation   On July 25, 2016, AFG announced that it reached an agreement with the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of National Interstate Corporation (“NATL”) to acquire all shares of NATL that it does not currently own. NATL is currently a 51%-owned subsidiary of AFG’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Great American Insurance Company (“GAI”). Shareholders of NATL, other than GAI, will receive $32.00 per share in cash in the transaction. In addition, NATL will pay a one-time special dividend to its shareholders of $0.50 per NATL share in cash immediately prior to the closing of the merger. The transaction remains subject to the approval of shareholders holding a majority of the shares of NATL not owned by AFG or its affiliates. On November 10, 2016, a special meeting will be held for NATL shareholders to vote on the proposed transaction. GAI has entered into a voting agreement with certain shareholders of NATL under which the shareholders agreed, among other things, to vote all common shares of NATL owned by such shareholders, totaling approximately 10% of the outstanding NATL common shares (and representing approximately 20% of the shares not owned by GAI), in favor of the transaction. Based on a $32.00 per share purchase price plus $0.50 special dividend, the purchase price to acquire the NATL shares not currently owned by GAI will be approximately $320 million. Because NATL is already a consolidated subsidiary of AFG, the acquisition will be accounted for as an equity transaction with the excess of the consideration paid over the carrying value of the noncontrolling interest acquired recorded as a direct reduction in AFG’s Capital Surplus (approximately $140 million based on balances as of September 30, 2016). In addition, the proposed transaction will allow NATL and its subsidiaries to become members of the AFG consolidated tax group, which will result in a tax benefit of approximately $66 million to AFG at the time the transaction is consummated, which is expected to be during the fourth quarter of 2016.

Sale of Long-term Care Business   On December 24, 2015, AFG completed the sale of substantially all of its run-off long-term care insurance business (which was included in the run-off long-term care and life segment) to HC2 Holdings, Inc. (“HC2”) for an initial payment of $7 million in cash and HC2 securities with a fair value of $11 million (subject to post-closing adjustments). AFG may also receive up to $13 million of additional proceeds from HC2 in the future contingent upon the release of certain statutory-basis liabilities of the legal entities sold by AFG. In connection with obtaining regulatory approval for the transaction, AFG agreed to provide up to an aggregate of $35 million of capital support for the insurance companies, on an as-needed basis to maintain specified surplus levels, subject to immediate reimbursement by HC2 through a five-year capital maintenance agreement. The legal entities involved in the transaction, United Teacher Associates Insurance Company (“UTA”) and Continental General Insurance Company (“CGIC”), contained substantially all of AFG’s long-term care insurance reserves (96% as measured by net statutory reserves as of November 30, 2015), as well as smaller blocks of annuity and life insurance

12
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


business. Following the sale of these subsidiaries, AFG has only a small block of long-term care insurance (1,600 policies) with approximately $38 million of reserves at September 30, 2016. AFG had ceased new sales of long-term care insurance in January 2010, but continued to service and accept renewal premiums on its outstanding policies, which are guaranteed renewable.

In addition to the $18 million in cash and securities received at closing and the $13 million of potential additional proceeds in the future from the release of statutory liabilities, AFG received a total of $97 million in tax benefits related to the sale. AFG received these tax benefits in the first nine months of 2016 through reduced estimated tax payments and a tax refund resulting from the carryback of the tax-basis capital loss. The receivables for these tax benefits were reflected in AFG’s financial statements at December 31, 2015.

Based on the status of ongoing negotiations at the end of the first quarter of 2015, management determined that the potential sale of the run-off long-term care insurance business met the GAAP “held for sale” criteria as of March 31, 2015. Accordingly, AFG recorded a $162 million pretax loss ($105 million loss after tax) in the first quarter of 2015 to establish a liability equal to the excess of the net carrying value of the assets and liabilities to be disposed over the estimated net sale proceeds. At the closing date, the loss was adjusted to $166 million ($108 million loss after tax) based on the actual proceeds received and the final carrying value of the net assets disposed. In the second quarter of 2016, AFG received additional proceeds based on the final closing balance sheet and adjusted certain accrued expense estimates associated with the sale, resulting in a $2 million pretax gain. At March 31, 2015 and at the sale date, the carrying value of the assets and liabilities disposed represented approximately 4% of both AFG’s assets and liabilities.

Revenues, costs and expenses, and earnings before income taxes for the subsidiaries sold were (in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30, 2015
 
Nine months ended September 30, 2015
Life, accident and health net earned premiums:
 
 
 
Long-term care
$
19

 
$
56

Life operations
3

 
8

Net investment income
19

 
56

Realized gains (losses) on securities and other income
(4
)
 
(6
)
Total revenues
37

 
114

Annuity benefits
2

 
6

Life, accident and health benefits:
 
 
 
Long-term care
21

 
67

Life operations
3

 
8

Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses
3

 
9

Other expenses
4

 
13

Total costs and expenses
33

 
103

Earnings before income taxes
$
4

 
$
11



13
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


C.    Segments of Operations

AFG manages its business as four segments: (i) Property and casualty insurance, (ii) Annuity, (iii) Run-off long-term care and life and (iv) Other, which includes holding company costs and the operations attributable to the noncontrolling interests of the managed investment entities.

AFG reports its property and casualty insurance business in the following Specialty sub-segments: (i) Property and transportation, which includes physical damage and liability coverage for buses, trucks and recreational vehicles, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products and other property coverages, (ii) Specialty casualty, which includes primarily excess and surplus, general liability, executive liability, professional liability, umbrella and excess liability, specialty coverage in targeted markets, customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses and workers’ compensation insurance, and (iii) Specialty financial, which includes risk management insurance programs for leasing and financing institutions (including collateral and lender-placed mortgage property insurance), surety and fidelity products and trade credit insurance. Premiums and underwriting profit included under Other specialty represent business assumed by AFG’s internal reinsurance program from the operations that make up AFG’s other Specialty sub-segments and amortization of deferred gains on retroactive reinsurance transactions related to the sales of businesses in prior years. AFG’s annuity business markets traditional fixed and fixed-indexed annuities in the retail, financial institutions and education markets. AFG’s reportable segments and their components were determined based primarily upon similar economic characteristics, products and services.


14
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


The following tables (in millions) show AFG’s revenues and earnings before income taxes by segment and sub-segment.
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
 
2016
 
2015
Revenues
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property and casualty insurance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Premiums earned:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Specialty
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property and transportation
$
493

 
$
517

 
$
1,197

 
$
1,157

Specialty casualty
497

 
503

 
1,496

 
1,496

Specialty financial
145

 
131

 
416

 
380

Other specialty
24

 
22

 
75

 
71

Total premiums earned
1,159

 
1,173

 
3,184

 
3,104

Net investment income
93

 
83

 
265

 
245

Other income (a)
3

 
2

 
46

 
61

Total property and casualty insurance
1,255

 
1,258

 
3,495

 
3,410

Annuity:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net investment income
351

 
317

 
1,010

 
915

Other income
26

 
24

 
76

 
75

Total annuity
377

 
341

 
1,086

 
990

Run-off long-term care and life (b)
13

 
50

 
37

 
145

Other
58

 
49

 
173

 
137

Total revenues before realized gains (losses)
1,703

 
1,698

 
4,791

 
4,682

Realized gains (losses) on securities
2

 
(16
)
 
(32
)
 
2

Realized gains (losses) on subsidiaries
—

 
5

 
2

 
(157
)
Total revenues
$
1,705

 
$
1,687

 
$
4,761

 
$
4,527

Earnings Before Income Taxes
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property and casualty insurance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Underwriting:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Specialty
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property and transportation
$
44

 
$
20

 
$
91

 
$
14

Specialty casualty
13

 
31

 
65

 
96

Specialty financial
19

 
26

 
64

 
72

Other specialty
2

 
7

 
7

 
13

Other lines (c)
(36
)
 
(69
)
 
(101
)
 
(70
)
Total underwriting
42

 
15

 
126

 
125

Investment and other income, net (a)
79

 
75

 
269

 
272

Total property and casualty insurance
121

 
90

 
395

 
397

Annuity
107

 
67

 
236

 
230

Run-off long-term care and life (b)
1

 
6

 
—

 
14

Other (d)
(53
)
 
(53
)
 
(131
)
 
(131
)
Total earnings before realized gains (losses) and income taxes
176

 
110

 
500

 
510

Realized gains (losses) on securities
2

 
(16
)
 
(32
)
 
2

Realized gains (losses) on subsidiaries
—

 
5

 
2

 
(157
)
Total earnings before income taxes
$
178

 
$
99

 
$
470

 
$
355

(a)
Includes pretax income of $32 million (before noncontrolling interest) from the sale of an apartment property in the second quarter of 2016 and $51 million (before noncontrolling interest) from the sale of the Le Pavillon Hotel in the second quarter of 2015.
(b)
AFG sold substantially all of its run-off long-term care insurance business in December 2015.
(c)
Includes a special charge of $65 million related to the exit of certain lines of business within AFG’s Lloyd’s-based insurer, Neon, in the second quarter of 2016 and special charges of $36 million and $67 million in the third quarter of 2016 and 2015, respectively, to increase asbestos and environmental (“A&E”) reserves.
(d)
Includes holding company interest and expenses, including a $4 million loss on retirement of debt in the third quarter of 2015, and special charges of $5 million and $12 million in the third quarter of 2016 and 2015, respectively, to increase A&E reserves related to AFG’s former railroad and manufacturing operations.

15
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


D.    Fair Value Measurements

Accounting standards for measuring fair value are based on inputs used in estimating fair value. The three levels of the hierarchy are as follows:
 
Level 1 — Quoted prices for identical assets or liabilities in active markets (markets in which transactions occur with sufficient frequency and volume to provide pricing information on an ongoing basis). AFG’s Level 1 financial instruments consist primarily of publicly traded equity securities and highly liquid government bonds for which quoted market prices in active markets are available and short-term investments of managed investment entities.

Level 2 — Quoted prices for similar instruments in active markets; quoted prices for identical or similar assets or liabilities in inactive markets (markets in which there are few transactions, the prices are not current, price quotations vary substantially over time or among market makers, or in which little information is released publicly); and valuations based on other significant inputs that are observable in active markets. AFG’s Level 2 financial instruments include separate account assets, corporate and municipal fixed maturity securities, mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”) and investments of managed investment entities priced using observable inputs. Level 2 inputs include benchmark yields, reported trades, corroborated broker/dealer quotes, issuer spreads and benchmark securities. When non-binding broker quotes can be corroborated by comparison to similar securities priced using observable inputs, they are classified as Level 2.

Level 3 — Valuations derived from market valuation techniques generally consistent with those used to estimate the fair values of Level 2 financial instruments in which one or more significant inputs are unobservable or when the market for a security exhibits significantly less liquidity relative to markets supporting Level 2 fair value measurements. The unobservable inputs may include management’s own assumptions about the assumptions market participants would use based on the best information available in the circumstances. AFG’s Level 3 is comprised of financial instruments whose fair value is estimated based on non-binding broker quotes or internally developed using significant inputs not based on, or corroborated by, observable market information, and prior to 2015 certain liabilities of the CLOs.

Under new guidance adopted in the first quarter of 2015, discussed in Note A — “Accounting Policies — Managed Investment Entities,” AFG has elected to set the carrying value of the CLO liabilities equal to the fair value of the CLO assets (which have more observable fair values) as an alternative to reporting those liabilities at separately measured fair values. Following the adoption of the new guidance, the CLO liabilities are categorized within the fair value hierarchy on the same basis (proportionally) as the related CLO assets. Since the portion of the CLO liabilities allocated to Level 3 is derived from the fair value of the CLO assets, these amounts are excluded from the progression of Level 3 financial instruments.

AFG’s management is responsible for the valuation process and uses data from outside sources (including nationally recognized pricing services and broker/dealers) in establishing fair value. AFG’s internal investment professionals are a group of approximately 25 analysts whose primary responsibility is to manage AFG’s investment portfolio. These professionals monitor individual investments as well as overall industries and are active in the financial markets on a daily basis. The group is led by AFG’s chief investment officer, who reports directly to one of AFG’s Co-CEOs. Valuation techniques utilized by pricing services and prices obtained from external sources are reviewed by AFG’s internal investment professionals who are familiar with the securities being priced and the markets in which they trade to ensure the fair value determination is representative of an exit price. To validate the appropriateness of the prices obtained, these investment managers consider widely published indices (as benchmarks), recent trades, changes in interest rates, general economic conditions and the credit quality of the specific issuers. In addition, the Company communicates directly with the pricing service regarding the methods and assumptions used in pricing, including verifying, on a test basis, the inputs used by the service to value specific securities.

In December 2015, AFG completed the sale of substantially all of its run-off long-term care insurance business. Based on the status of ongoing negotiations at the end of the first quarter of 2015, management determined that the potential sale of the run-off long-term care insurance business met GAAP “held for sale” criteria as of March 31, 2015. Accordingly, AFG recorded a loss in the first quarter of 2015 to write down the net carrying value of the assets and liabilities to be disposed to the estimated net sale proceeds of $14 million (estimated fair value less costs to sell). The estimate of fair value used to determine that loss was derived using significant unobservable inputs (Level 3).

16
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


Assets and liabilities measured and carried at fair value in the financial statements are summarized below (in millions): 
 
Level 1
 
Level 2
 
Level 3
 
Total
September 30, 2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Assets:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Available for sale (“AFS”) fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Government and government agencies
$
133

 
$
191

 
$
8

 
$
332

States, municipalities and political subdivisions
—

 
6,956

 
91

 
7,047

Foreign government
—

 
141

 
—

 
141

Residential MBS
—

 
3,597

 
219

 
3,816

Commercial MBS
—

 
1,815

 
34

 
1,849

Asset-backed securities (“ABS”)
—

 
5,422

 
467

 
5,889

Corporate and other
35

 
15,576

 
709

 
16,320

Total AFS fixed maturities
168

 
33,698

 
1,528

 
35,394

Trading fixed maturities
12

 
336

 
—

 
348

Equity securities — AFS and trading
1,373

 
101

 
165

 
1,639

Assets of managed investment entities (“MIE”)
328

 
3,960

 
24

 
4,312

Variable annuity assets (separate accounts) (*)
—

 
606

 
—

 
606

Other investments — equity index call options
—

 
447

 
—

 
447

Other assets — derivatives
—

 
14

 
—

 
14

Total assets accounted for at fair value
$
1,881

 
$
39,162

 
$
1,717

 
$
42,760

Liabilities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Liabilities of managed investment entities
$
310

 
$
3,734

 
$
23

 
$
4,067

Derivatives in annuity benefits accumulated
—

 
—

 
1,688

 
1,688

Derivatives in long-term debt
—

 
(6
)
 
—

 
(6
)
Other liabilities — derivatives
—

 
13

 
—

 
13

Total liabilities accounted for at fair value
$
310

 
$
3,741

 
$
1,711

 
$
5,762

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
December 31, 2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Assets:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Available for sale fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Government and government agencies
$
100

 
$
192

 
$
15

 
$
307

States, municipalities and political subdivisions
—

 
6,767

 
89

 
6,856

Foreign government
—

 
154

 
—

 
154

Residential MBS
—

 
3,305

 
224

 
3,529

Commercial MBS
—

 
2,148

 
39

 
2,187

Asset-backed securities
—

 
4,464

 
470

 
4,934

Corporate and other
50

 
13,634

 
633

 
14,317

Total AFS fixed maturities
150

 
30,664

 
1,470

 
32,284

Trading fixed maturities
13

 
241

 
—

 
254

Equity securities — AFS and trading
1,362

 
217

 
140

 
1,719

Assets of managed investment entities
309

 
3,712

 
26

 
4,047

Variable annuity assets (separate accounts) (*)
—

 
608

 
—

 
608

Other investments — equity index call options
—

 
241

 
—

 
241

Other assets — derivatives
—

 
2

 
—

 
2

Total assets accounted for at fair value
$
1,834

 
$
35,685

 
$
1,636

 
$
39,155

Liabilities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Liabilities of managed investment entities
$
289

 
$
3,468

 
$
24

 
$
3,781

Derivatives in annuity benefits accumulated
—

 
—

 
1,369

 
1,369

Derivatives in long-term debt
—

 
(2
)
 
—

 
(2
)
Other liabilities — derivatives
—

 
8

 
—

 
8

Total liabilities accounted for at fair value
$
289

 
$
3,474

 
$
1,393

 
$
5,156

(*)
Variable annuity liabilities equal the fair value of variable annuity assets.

17
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


Transfers between Level 1 and Level 2 for all periods presented were a result of increases or decreases in observable trade activity.

During the third quarter of 2016, there was one common stock with a fair value of less than $1 million that transferred from Level 1 to Level 2. During the first nine months of 2016, there were six perpetual preferred stocks with a fair value of $35 million that transferred from Level 2 to Level 1 and five perpetual preferred stocks and one common stock with aggregate fair values of $12 million and less than $1 million, respectively, that transferred from Level 1 to Level 2. During the third quarter of 2015, there was one common stock with a fair value of less than $1 million transferred from Level 2 to Level 1. During the first nine months of 2015, there were seven common stocks, four perpetual preferred stocks and one mandatory redeemable preferred stock with aggregate fair values of $80 million, $19 million and $10 million, respectively, transferred from Level 2 to Level 1. During the third quarter and first nine months of 2015, seven perpetual preferred stocks with a fair value of $31 million were transferred from Level 1 to Level 2.

Approximately 4% of the total assets carried at fair value on September 30, 2016, were Level 3 assets. Approximately 76% ($1.31 billion) of the Level 3 assets were priced using non-binding broker quotes, for which there is a lack of transparency as to the inputs used to determine fair value. Details as to the quantitative inputs are neither provided by the brokers nor otherwise reasonably obtainable by AFG. Since internally developed Level 3 asset fair values represent less than 10% of AFG’s shareholders’ equity, any justifiable changes in unobservable inputs used to determine internally developed fair values would not have a material impact on AFG’s financial position.

The only significant Level 3 assets or liabilities carried at fair value in the financial statements that were not measured using broker quotes are the derivatives embedded in AFG’s fixed-indexed annuity liabilities, which are measured using a discounted cash flow approach and had a fair value of $1.69 billion at September 30, 2016. The following table presents information about the unobservable inputs used by management in determining fair value of these embedded derivatives. See Note F — “Derivatives.”

 
Unobservable Input
 
Range
 
 
Adjustment for insurance subsidiary’s credit risk
 
0.4% – 2.9% over the risk free rate
 
 
Risk margin for uncertainty in cash flows
 
0.58% reduction in the discount rate
 
 
Surrenders
 
3% – 21% of indexed account value
 
 
Partial surrenders
 
2% – 10% of indexed account value
 
 
Annuitizations
 
0.25% – 1% of indexed account value
 
 
Deaths
 
1.5% – 4.0% of indexed account value
 
 
Budgeted option costs
 
1.75% – 3.5% of indexed account value
 

The range of adjustments for insurance subsidiary’s credit risk reflects credit spread variations across the yield curve. The range of projected surrender rates reflects the specific surrender charges and other features of AFG’s individual fixed-indexed annuity products with an expected range of 5% to 10% in the majority of future calendar years (3% to 21% over all periods). Increasing the budgeted option cost or risk margin for uncertainty in cash flows assumptions in the table above would increase the fair value of the fixed-indexed annuity embedded derivatives, while increasing any of the other unobservable inputs in the table above would decrease the fair value of the embedded derivatives.


18
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


Changes in balances of Level 3 financial assets and liabilities carried at fair value during the third quarter and first nine months of 2016 and 2015 are presented below (in millions). The transfers into and out of Level 3 were due to changes in the availability of market observable inputs. All transfers are reflected in the table at fair value as of the end of the reporting period.

 
 
 
Total realized/unrealized
gains (losses) included in
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Balance at June 30, 2016
 
Net
income
 
Other
comprehensive
income (loss)
 
Purchases
and
issuances
 
Sales and
settlements
 
Transfer
into
Level 3
 
Transfer
out of
Level 3
 
Balance at September 30, 2016
AFS fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. government agency
$
8

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
8

State and municipal
91

 
—

 
1

 
—

 
(1
)
 
—

 
—

 
91

Residential MBS
231

 
(2
)
 
—

 
—

 
(8
)
 
—

 
(2
)
 
219

Commercial MBS
36

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(2
)
 
—

 
—

 
34

Asset-backed securities
478

 
(1
)
 
4

 
—

 
(5
)
 
—

 
(9
)
 
467

Corporate and other
689

 
—

 
(3
)
 
37

 
(14
)
 
—

 
—

 
709

Total AFS fixed maturities
1,533

 
(3
)
 
2

 
37

 
(30
)
 
—

 
(11
)
 
1,528

Equity securities
166

 
5

 
5

 
10

 
(21
)
 
—

 
—

 
165

Assets of MIE
26

 
(2
)
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
24

Total Level 3 assets
$
1,725

 
$
—

 
$
7

 
$
47

 
$
(51
)
 
$
—

 
$
(11
)
 
$
1,717

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Embedded derivatives
$
(1,557
)
 
$
(109
)
 
$
—

 
$
(53
)
 
$
31

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
(1,688
)
Total Level 3 liabilities (*)
$
(1,557
)
 
$
(109
)
 
$
—

 
$
(53
)
 
$
31

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
(1,688
)


 
 
 
Total realized/unrealized
gains (losses) included in
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Balance at June 30, 2015
 
Net
income
 
Other
comprehensive
income (loss)
 
Purchases
and
issuances
 
Sales and
settlements
 
Transfer
into
Level 3
 
Transfer
out of
Level 3
 
Balance at September 30, 2015
AFS fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. government agency
$
15

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
15

State and municipal
84

 
—

 
1

 
9

 
(1
)
 
—

 
—

 
93

Residential MBS
296

 
(3
)
 
(1
)
 
—

 
(8
)
 
10

 
—

 
294

Commercial MBS
48

 
—

 
(1
)
 
—

 
(1
)
 
—

 
(1
)
 
45

Asset-backed securities
332

 
—

 
—

 
110

 
(3
)
 
20

 
(10
)
 
449

Corporate and other
597

 
—

 
7

 
24

 
(13
)
 
31

 
—

 
646

Total AFS fixed maturities
1,372

 
(3
)
 
6

 
143

 
(26
)
 
61

 
(11
)
 
1,542

Equity securities
118

 
—

 
(2
)
 
7

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
123

Assets of MIE
29

 
(3
)
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
26

Total Level 3 assets
$
1,519

 
$
(6
)
 
$
4

 
$
150

 
$
(26
)
 
$
61

 
$
(11
)
 
$
1,691

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Embedded derivatives
$
(1,258
)
 
$
130

 
$
—

 
$
(88
)
 
$
18

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
(1,198
)
Total Level 3 liabilities (*)
$
(1,258
)
 
$
130

 
$
—

 
$
(88
)
 
$
18

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
(1,198
)

(*)
As discussed previously, these tables exclude the portion of MIE liabilities allocated to Level 3, which are derived from the fair value of the MIE assets.

19
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED



 
 
 
Total realized/unrealized
gains (losses) included in
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Balance at December 31, 2015
 
Net
income
 
Other
comprehensive
income (loss)
 
Purchases
and
issuances
 
Sales and
settlements
 
Transfer
into
Level 3
 
Transfer
out of
Level 3
 
Balance at September 30, 2016
AFS fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. government agency
$
15

 
$
(8
)
 
$
1

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
8

State and municipal
89

 
—

 
4

 
—

 
(2
)
 
—

 
—

 
91

Residential MBS
224

 
—

 
1

 
—

 
(21
)
 
33

 
(18
)
 
219

Commercial MBS
39

 
(1
)
 
—

 
—

 
(4
)
 
—

 
—

 
34

Asset-backed securities
470

 
(1
)
 
1

 
15

 
(24
)
 
41

 
(35
)
 
467

Corporate and other
633

 
—

 
24

 
131

 
(89
)
 
15

 
(5
)
 
709

Total AFS fixed maturities
1,470

 
(10
)
 
31

 
146

 
(140
)
 
89

 
(58
)
 
1,528

Equity securities
140

 
(12
)
 
21

 
22

 
(21
)
 
15

 
—

 
165

Assets of MIE
26

 
(6
)
 
—

 
4

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
24

Total Level 3 assets
$
1,636

 
$
(28
)
 
$
52

 
$
172

 
$
(161
)
 
$
104

 
$
(58
)
 
$
1,717

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Embedded derivatives
$
(1,369
)
 
$
(188
)
 
$
—

 
$
(207
)
 
$
76

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
(1,688
)
Total Level 3 liabilities (a)
$
(1,369
)
 
$
(188
)
 
$
—

 
$
(207
)
 
$
76

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
(1,688
)


 
 
 
 
 
Total realized/unrealized
gains (losses) included in
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Balance at December 31, 2014
 
Impact of accounting change (b)
 
Net
income
 
Other
comprehensive
income (loss)
 
Purchases
and
issuances
 
Sales and
settlements
 
Transfer
into
Level 3
 
Transfer
out of
Level 3
 
Balance at September 30, 2015
AFS fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. government agency
$
15

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
15

State and municipal
100

 
—

 
—

 
(1
)
 
34

 
(1
)
 
—

 
(39
)
 
93

Residential MBS
300

 
—

 
(5
)
 
—

 
—

 
(24
)
 
67

 
(44
)
 
294

Commercial MBS
44

 
—

 
—

 
(1
)
 
—

 
(1
)
 
4

 
(1
)
 
45

Asset-backed securities
226

 
—

 
1

 
—

 
230

 
(51
)
 
53

 
(10
)
 
449

Corporate and other
546

 
—

 
(3
)
 
(4
)
 
103

 
(37
)
 
41

 
—

 
646

Total AFS fixed maturities
1,231

 
—

 
(7
)
 
(6
)
 
367

 
(114
)
 
165

 
(94
)
 
1,542

Equity securities
93

 
—

 
(4
)
 
(1
)
 
52

 
—

 
—

 
(17
)
 
123

Assets of MIE
31

 
—

 
(9
)
 
—

 
4

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
26

Total Level 3 assets
$
1,355

 
$
—

 
$
(20
)
 
$
(7
)
 
$
423

 
$
(114
)
 
$
165

 
$
(111
)
 
$
1,691

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Liabilities of MIE
$
(2,701
)
 
$
2,701

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

Embedded derivatives
(1,160
)
 
—

 
99

 
—

 
(183
)
 
46

 
—

 
—

 
(1,198
)
Total Level 3 liabilities (a)
$
(3,861
)
 
$
2,701

 
$
99

 
$
—

 
$
(183
)
 
$
46

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
(1,198
)

(a)
As discussed previously, these tables exclude the portion of MIE liabilities allocated to Level 3, which are derived from the fair value of the MIE assets.
(b)
The impact of implementing new guidance adopted in 2015, as discussed above and in Note A — “Accounting Policies — Managed Investment Entities.”

20
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


Fair Value of Financial Instruments   The carrying value and fair value of financial instruments that are not carried at fair value in the financial statements are summarized below (in millions): 
 
Carrying
 
Fair Value
 
Value
 
Total
 
Level 1
 
Level 2
 
Level 3
September 30, 2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Financial assets:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and cash equivalents
$
1,639

 
$
1,639

 
$
1,639

 
$
—

 
$
—

Mortgage loans
1,180

 
1,193

 
—

 
—

 
1,193

Policy loans
194

 
194

 
—

 
—

 
194

Total financial assets not accounted for at fair value
$
3,013

 
$
3,026

 
$
1,639

 
$
—

 
$
1,387

Financial liabilities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Annuity benefits accumulated (*)
$
29,018

 
$
29,020

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
29,020

Long-term debt
1,306

 
1,438

 
—

 
1,417

 
21

Total financial liabilities not accounted for at fair value
$
30,324

 
$
30,458

 
$
—

 
$
1,417

 
$
29,041

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
December 31, 2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Financial assets:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and cash equivalents
$
1,220

 
$
1,220

 
$
1,220

 
$
—

 
$
—

Mortgage loans
1,067

 
1,074

 
—

 
—

 
1,074

Policy loans
201

 
201

 
—

 
—

 
201

Total financial assets not accounted for at fair value
$
2,488

 
$
2,495

 
$
1,220

 
$
—

 
$
1,275

Financial liabilities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Annuity benefits accumulated (*)
$
26,422

 
$
25,488

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
25,488

Long-term debt
1,000

 
1,120

 
—

 
1,105

 
15

Total financial liabilities not accounted for at fair value
$
27,422

 
$
26,608

 
$
—

 
$
1,105

 
$
25,503


(*)
Excludes $204 million and $200 million of life contingent annuities in the payout phase at September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015, respectively.

The carrying amount of cash and cash equivalents approximates fair value. Fair values for mortgage loans are estimated by discounting the future contractual cash flows using the current rates at which similar loans would be made to borrowers with similar credit ratings. The fair value of policy loans is estimated to approximate carrying value; policy loans have no defined maturity dates and are inseparable from insurance contracts. The fair value of annuity benefits was estimated based on expected cash flows discounted using forward interest rates adjusted for the Company’s credit risk and includes the impact of maintenance expenses and capital costs. Fair values of long-term debt are based primarily on quoted market prices.


21
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


E.    Investments

Available for sale fixed maturities and equity securities at September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015, consisted of the following (in millions): 
 
September 30, 2016
 
December 31, 2015
Amortized
Cost
 
Gross Unrealized
 
Net
Unrealized
 
Fair
Value
 
Amortized
Cost
 
Gross Unrealized
 
Net
Unrealized
 
Fair
Value
Gains
 
Losses
 
Gains
 
Losses
Fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Government and government agencies
$
328

 
$
6

 
$
(2
)
 
$
4

 
$
332

 
$
305

 
$
5

 
$
(3
)
 
$
2

 
$
307

States, municipalities and political subdivisions
6,597

 
455

 
(5
)
 
450

 
7,047

 
6,642

 
249

 
(35
)
 
214

 
6,856

Foreign government
134

 
7

 
—

 
7

 
141

 
147

 
7

 
—

 
7

 
154

Residential MBS
3,530

 
300

 
(14
)
 
286

 
3,816

 
3,236

 
308

 
(15
)
 
293

 
3,529

Commercial MBS
1,764

 
85

 
—

 
85

 
1,849

 
2,111

 
77

 
(1
)
 
76

 
2,187

Asset-backed securities
5,844

 
70

 
(25
)
 
45

 
5,889

 
4,961

 
25

 
(52
)
 
(27
)
 
4,934

Corporate and other
15,389

 
962

 
(31
)
 
931

 
16,320

 
14,163

 
422

 
(268
)
 
154

 
14,317

Total fixed maturities
$
33,586

 
$
1,885

 
$
(77
)
 
$
1,808

 
$
35,394

 
$
31,565

 
$
1,093

 
$
(374
)
 
$
719

 
$
32,284

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Equity Securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Common stocks
$
939

 
$
157

 
$
(27
)
 
$
130

 
$
1,069

 
$
1,051

 
$
146

 
$
(79
)
 
$
67

 
$
1,118

Perpetual preferred stocks
453

 
34

 
(3
)
 
31

 
484

 
418

 
23

 
(6
)
 
17

 
435

Total equity securities
$
1,392

 
$
191

 
$
(30
)
 
$
161

 
$
1,553

 
$
1,469

 
$
169

 
$
(85
)
 
$
84

 
$
1,553


The non-credit related portion of other-than-temporary impairment charges is included in other comprehensive income. Cumulative non-credit charges taken for securities still owned at September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015, respectively, were $192 million and $205 million. Gross unrealized gains on such securities at September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015 were $131 million and $134 million, respectively. Gross unrealized losses on such securities at September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015 were $5 million and $6 million, respectively. These amounts represent the non-credit other-than-temporary impairment charges recorded in AOCI adjusted for subsequent changes in fair values and nearly all relate to residential MBS.

22
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


The following tables show gross unrealized losses (dollars in millions) on fixed maturities and equity securities by investment category and length of time that individual securities have been in a continuous unrealized loss position at September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015. 
  
Less Than Twelve Months
 
Twelve Months or More
Unrealized
Loss
 
Fair
Value
 
Fair Value as
% of Cost
 
Unrealized
Loss
 
Fair
Value
 
Fair Value as
% of Cost
September 30, 2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Government and government agencies
$
—

 
$
51

 
100
%
 
$
(2
)
 
$
8

 
80
%
States, municipalities and political subdivisions
(2
)
 
191

 
99
%
 
(3
)
 
50

 
94
%
Residential MBS
(7
)
 
490

 
99
%
 
(7
)
 
158

 
96
%
Commercial MBS
—

 
23

 
100
%
 
—

 
4

 
100
%
Asset-backed securities
(13
)
 
924

 
99
%
 
(12
)
 
535

 
98
%
Corporate and other
(8
)
 
470

 
98
%
 
(23
)
 
336

 
94
%
Total fixed maturities
$
(30
)
 
$
2,149

 
99
%
 
$
(47
)
 
$
1,091

 
96
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Equity securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Common stocks
$
(27
)
 
$
233

 
90
%
 
$
—

 
$
—

 
—
%
Perpetual preferred stocks
(2
)
 
89

 
98
%
 
(1
)
 
6

 
86
%
Total equity securities
$
(29
)
 
$
322

 
92
%
 
$
(1
)
 
$
6

 
86
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
December 31, 2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fixed maturities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. Government and government agencies
$
(1
)
 
$
112

 
99
%
 
$
(2
)
 
$
15

 
88
%
States, municipalities and political subdivisions
(33
)
 
1,419

 
98
%
 
(2
)
 
50

 
96
%
Residential MBS
(7
)
 
438

 
98
%
 
(8
)
 
201

 
96
%
Commercial MBS
—

 
95

 
100
%
 
(1
)
 
28

 
97
%
Asset-backed securities
(42
)
 
2,706

 
98
%
 
(10
)
 
455

 
98
%
Corporate and other
(229
)
 
4,661

 
95
%
 
(39
)
 
165

 
81
%
Total fixed maturities
$
(312
)
 
$
9,431

 
97
%
 
$
(62
)
 
$
914

 
94
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Equity securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Common stocks
$
(79
)
 
$
509

 
87
%
 
$
—

 
$
—

 
—
%
Perpetual preferred stocks
(3
)
 
91

 
97
%
 
(3
)
 
22

 
88
%
Total equity securities
$
(82
)
 
$
600

 
88
%
 
$
(3
)
 
$
22

 
88
%

At September 30, 2016, the gross unrealized losses on fixed maturities of $77 million relate to approximately 475 securities. Investment grade securities (as determined by nationally recognized rating agencies) represented approximately 49% of the gross unrealized loss and 74% of the fair value.

AFG analyzes its MBS securities for other-than-temporary impairment each quarter based upon expected future cash flows. Management estimates expected future cash flows based upon its knowledge of the MBS market, cash flow projections (which reflect loan to collateral values, subordination, vintage and geographic concentration) received from independent sources, implied cash flows inherent in security ratings and analysis of historical payment data. In the first nine months of 2016, AFG recorded $2 million in other-than-temporary impairment charges related to its residential MBS.

In the first nine months of 2016, AFG recorded approximately $34 million in other-than-temporary impairment charges related to corporate bonds and other fixed maturities.

AFG recorded $79 million in other-than-temporary impairment charges on common stocks in the first nine months of 2016. At September 30, 2016, the gross unrealized losses on common stocks of $27 million relate to 32 securities, none of which has been in an unrealized loss position for more than 12 months.


23
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


AFG recorded $4 million in other-than-temporary impairment charges on preferred stocks in the first nine months of 2016. At September 30, 2016, the gross unrealized losses on preferred stocks of $3 million relate to 14 securities. All of the preferred stocks that have been in an unrealized loss position for 12 months or more (1 security), have investment grade ratings.

Management believes AFG will recover its cost basis in the securities with unrealized losses and that AFG has the ability to hold the securities until they recover in value and had no intent to sell them at September 30, 2016.

A progression of the credit portion of other-than-temporary impairments on fixed maturity securities for which the non-credit portion of an impairment has been recognized in other comprehensive income is shown below (in millions):

 
2016
 
2015
Balance at June 30
$
157

 
$
166

Additional credit impairments on:
 
 
 
Previously impaired securities
—

 
—

Securities without prior impairments
—

 
2

Reductions due to sales or redemptions
(2
)
 
(2
)
Balance at September 30
$
155

 
$
166

 
 
 
 
Balance at January 1
$
160

 
$
170

Additional credit impairments on:
 
 
 
Previously impaired securities
2

 
1

Securities without prior impairments
—

 
2

Reductions due to sales or redemptions
(7
)
 
(7
)
Balance at September 30
$
155

 
$
166


The table below sets forth the scheduled maturities of available for sale fixed maturities as of September 30, 2016 (dollars in millions). Securities with sinking funds are reported at average maturity. Actual maturities may differ from contractual maturities because certain securities may be called or prepaid by the issuers.
  
Amortized
 
Fair Value
Cost
 
Amount
 
%
Maturity
 
 
 
 
 
One year or less
$
1,036

 
$
1,053

 
3
%
After one year through five years
5,686

 
6,047

 
17
%
After five years through ten years
11,767

 
12,467

 
35
%
After ten years
3,959

 
4,273

 
12
%
 
22,448

 
23,840

 
67
%
ABS (average life of approximately 5 years)
5,844

 
5,889

 
17
%
MBS (average life of approximately 4 years)
5,294

 
5,665

 
16
%
Total
$
33,586

 
$
35,394

 
100
%

Certain risks are inherent in fixed maturity securities, including loss upon default, price volatility in reaction to changes in interest rates, and general market factors and risks associated with reinvestment of proceeds due to prepayments or redemptions in a period of declining interest rates.
There were no investments in individual issuers that exceeded 10% of shareholders’ equity at September 30, 2016 or December 31, 2015.


24
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


Net Unrealized Gain on Marketable Securities   In addition to adjusting equity securities and fixed maturity securities classified as “available for sale” to fair value, GAAP requires that deferred policy acquisition costs and certain other balance sheet amounts related to annuity, long-term care and life businesses be adjusted to the extent that unrealized gains and losses from securities would result in adjustments to those balances had the unrealized gains or losses actually been realized. The following table shows (in millions) the components of the net unrealized gain on securities that is included in AOCI in AFG’s Balance Sheet. 
 
Pretax
 
Deferred Tax and
Amounts 
Attributable
to Noncontrolling
Interests
 
Net
September 30, 2016
 
 
 
 
 
Unrealized gain on:
 
 
 
 
 
Fixed maturities — annuity segment (*)
$
1,420

 
$
(497
)
 
$
923

Fixed maturities — all other
388

 
(145
)
 
243

Total fixed maturities
1,808

 
(642
)
 
1,166

Equity securities
161

 
(58
)
 
103

Total investments
1,969

 
(700
)
 
1,269

Deferred policy acquisition costs — annuity segment
(614
)
 
215

 
(399
)
Annuity benefits accumulated
(179
)
 
63

 
(116
)
Life, accident and health reserves
(1
)
 
—

 
(1
)
Unearned revenue
30

 
(11
)
 
19

Total net unrealized gain on marketable securities
$
1,205

 
$
(433
)
 
$
772

 
 
 
 
 
 
December 31, 2015
 
 
 
 
 
Unrealized gain on:
 
 
 
 
 
Fixed maturities — annuity segment (*)
$
523

 
$
(183
)
 
$
340

Fixed maturities — all other
196

 
(72
)
 
124

Total fixed maturities
719

 
(255
)
 
464

Equity securities
84

 
(30
)
 
54

Total investments
803

 
(285
)
 
518

Deferred policy acquisition costs — annuity segment
(233
)
 
82

 
(151
)
Annuity benefits accumulated
(64
)
 
22

 
(42
)
Unearned revenue
11

 
(4
)
 
7

Total net unrealized gain on marketable securities
$
517

 
$
(185
)
 
$
332


(*)
Unrealized gains on fixed maturity investments supporting AFG’s annuity benefits accumulated.

Net Investment Income   The following table shows (in millions) investment income earned and investment expenses incurred.
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
 
2016
 
2015
Investment income:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fixed maturities
$
378

 
$
370

 
$
1,126

 
$
1,082

Equity securities
20

 
20

 
59

 
54

Equity in earnings of partnerships and similar investments
16

 
18

 
31

 
26

Other
23

 
22

 
64

 
69

Gross investment income
437

 
430

 
1,280

 
1,231

Investment expenses
(4
)
 
(5
)
 
(13
)
 
(14
)
Net investment income
$
433

 
$
425

 
$
1,267

 
$
1,217



25
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


Realized gains (losses) and changes in unrealized appreciation (depreciation) related to fixed maturity and equity security investments are summarized as follows (in millions): 
 
Three months ended September 30, 2016
 
Three months ended September 30, 2015
 
Realized gains (losses)
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses)
 
 
 
Before Impairments
 
Impairments
 
Total
 
Change in Unrealized
 
Before Impairments
 
Impairments
 
Total
 
Change in Unrealized
Fixed maturities
$
5

 
$
(2
)
 
$
3

 
$
52

 
$
7

 
$
(17
)
 
$
(10
)
 
$
(9
)
Equity securities
14

 
(16
)
 
(2
)
 
89

 
13

 
(23
)
 
(10
)
 
(135
)
Mortgage loans and other investments
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

Other (*)
(1
)
 
2

 
1

 
(5
)
 
(1
)
 
5

 
4

 
(11
)
Total pretax
18


(16
)

2


136


19


(35
)

(16
)

(155
)
Tax effects
(7
)
 
5

 
(2
)
 
(48
)
 
(7
)
 
13

 
6

 
55

Noncontrolling interests
—

 
1

 
1

 
(1
)
 
(1
)
 
1

 
—

 
2

Net of tax and noncontrolling interests
$
11


$
(10
)

$
1


$
87


$
11


$
(21
)

$
(10
)

$
(98
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Nine months ended September 30, 2016
 
Nine months ended September 30, 2015
 
Realized gains (losses)
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses)
 
 
 
Before Impairments
 
Impairments
 
Total
 
Change in Unrealized
 
Before Impairments
 
Impairments
 
Total
 
Change in Unrealized
Fixed maturities
$
36

 
$
(37
)
 
$
(1
)
 
$
1,089

 
$
17

 
$
(32
)
 
$
(15
)
 
$
(414
)
Equity securities
46

 
(83
)
 
(37
)
 
77

 
59

 
(48
)
 
11

 
(150
)
Mortgage loans and other investments
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(2
)
 
—

 
(2
)
 
—

Other (*)
(7
)
 
13

 
6

 
(478
)
 
(3
)
 
11

 
8

 
166

Total pretax
75

 
(107
)
 
(32
)
 
688

 
71

 
(69
)
 
2

 
(398
)
Tax effects
(27
)
 
38

 
11

 
(241
)
 
(25
)
 
25

 
—

 
140

Noncontrolling interests
(1
)
 
3

 
2

 
(7
)
 
(1
)
 
1

 
—

 
4

Net of tax and noncontrolling interests
$
47

 
$
(66
)
 
$
(19
)
 
$
440

 
$
45

 
$
(43
)
 
$
2

 
$
(254
)

(*)
Primarily adjustments to deferred policy acquisition costs and reserves related to annuities and long-term care business.

Gross realized gains and losses (excluding impairment write-downs and mark-to-market of derivatives) on available for sale fixed maturity and equity security investment transactions included in the statement of cash flows consisted of the following (in millions): 
  
Nine months ended September 30,
2016
 
2015
Fixed maturities:
 
 
 
Gross gains
$
44

 
$
24

Gross losses
(8
)
 
—

Equity securities:
 
 
 
Gross gains
49

 
59

Gross losses
(3
)
 
—



26
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


F.    Derivatives

As discussed under “Derivatives” in Note A — “Accounting Policies” to the financial statements, AFG uses derivatives in certain areas of its operations.

Derivatives That Do Not Qualify for Hedge Accounting   The following derivatives that do not qualify for hedge accounting under GAAP are included in AFG’s Balance Sheet at fair value (in millions):
 
 
 
 
September 30, 2016
 
December 31, 2015
Derivative
 
Balance Sheet Line
 
Asset
 
Liability
 
Asset
 
Liability
MBS with embedded derivatives
 
Fixed maturities
 
$
120

 
$
—

 
$
130

 
$
—

Public company warrants
 
Equity securities
 
3

 
—

 
4

 
—

Fixed-indexed annuities (embedded derivative)
 
Annuity benefits accumulated
 
—

 
1,688

 
—

 
1,369

Equity index call options
 
Other investments
 
447

 
—

 
241

 
—

Reinsurance contracts (embedded derivative)
 
Other liabilities
 
—

 
13

 
—

 
7

 
 
 
 
$
570

 
$
1,701

 
$
375

 
$
1,376


The MBS with embedded derivatives consist primarily of interest-only MBS with interest rates that float inversely with short-term rates. AFG records the entire change in the fair value of these securities in earnings. These investments are part of AFG’s overall investment strategy and represent a small component of AFG’s overall investment portfolio.

Warrants to purchase shares of publicly traded companies, which represent a small component of AFG’s overall investment portfolio, are considered to be derivatives that are required to be carried at fair value through earnings.

AFG’s fixed-indexed annuities provide policyholders with a crediting rate tied, in part, to the performance of an existing stock market index. AFG attempts to mitigate the risk in the index-based component of these products through the purchase of call options on the appropriate index. AFG receives collateral from its counterparties to support its purchased call option assets. This collateral ($300 million at September 30, 2016 and $211 million at December 31, 2015) is included in other assets in AFG’s Balance Sheet with an offsetting liability to return the collateral, which is included in other liabilities. AFG’s strategy is designed so that the change in the fair value of the call option assets will generally offset the economic change in the liabilities from the index participation. Both the index-based component of the annuities and the related call options are considered derivatives. Fluctuations in interest rates and the stock market, among other factors, can cause volatility in the periodic measurement of fair value of the embedded derivative that management believes can be inconsistent with the long-term economics of these products.

As discussed under “Reinsurance” in Note A to the financial statements, certain reinsurance contracts are considered to contain embedded derivatives.

The following table summarizes the gain (loss) included in AFG’s Statement of Earnings for changes in the fair value of derivatives that do not qualify for hedge accounting for the third quarter and first nine months of 2016 and 2015 (in millions): 
 
 
 
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
Derivative
 
Statement of Earnings Line
 
2016
 
2015
 
2016
 
2015
MBS with embedded derivatives
 
Realized gains on securities
 
$
(4
)
 
$
(4
)
 
$
—

 
$
(7
)
Public company warrants
 
Realized gains on securities
 
1

 
—

 
—

 
—

Fixed-indexed annuities (embedded derivative)
 
Annuity benefits
 
(109
)
 
130

 
(188
)
 
99

Equity index call options
 
Annuity benefits
 
105

 
(167
)
 
81

 
(144
)
Reinsurance contracts (embedded derivative)
 
Net investment income
 
—

 
1

 
(6
)
 
4

 
 
 
 
$
(7
)
 
$
(40
)
 
$
(113
)
 
$
(48
)

Derivatives Designated and Qualifying as Cash Flow Hedges  As of September 30, 2016, AFG has entered into four interest rate swaps that are designated and qualify as highly effective cash flow hedges to mitigate interest rate risk related to certain floating-rate securities included in AFG’s portfolio of fixed maturity securities. The purpose of each of these swaps is to

27
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


effectively convert a portion of AFG’s floating-rate fixed maturity securities to fixed rates by offsetting the variability in cash flows attributable to changes in short-term LIBOR.

Under the terms of the swaps, AFG receives fixed-rate interest payments in exchange for variable interest payments based on short-term LIBOR. The notional amounts of the interest rate swaps amortize down over each swap’s respective life (the swaps expire between August 2019 and June 2030) in anticipation of the expected decline in AFG’s portfolio of fixed maturity securities with floating interest rates based on short-term LIBOR. The total outstanding notional amount of AFG’s interest rate swaps increased to $677 million at September 30, 2016 compared to $614 million at December 31, 2015, reflecting a $163 million notional amount swap entered into in the first quarter of 2016, partially offset by the scheduled amortization discussed above. The fair value of the effective portion of the interest rate swaps in an asset position and included in other assets was $14 million at September 30, 2016 and $2 million at December 31, 2015. The fair value of the effective portion of the interest rate swaps in a liability position and included in other liabilities was zero at September 30, 2016 and less than $1 million at December 31, 2015. The net unrealized gain or loss on cash flow hedges is included in AOCI, net of DPAC and tax. Amounts reclassified from AOCI to net investment income were $2 million in both of the third quarters of 2016 and 2015 and $5 million and $4 million in the first nine months of 2016 and 2015, respectively. There was no ineffectiveness recorded in net earnings during these periods.

Derivative Designated and Qualifying as a Fair Value Hedge   In June 2015, AFG entered into an interest rate swap to mitigate the interest rate risk associated with its fixed-rate 9-7/8% Senior Notes due June 2019 by effectively converting the interest rate on those notes to a floating rate of three-month LIBOR plus 8.099% (8.9493% at September 30, 2016). Since the terms of the interest rate swap match the terms of the hedged debt, changes in the fair value of the interest rate swap are offset by changes in the fair value of the hedged debt attributable to changes in interest rates. The fair value of the interest rate swap (asset of $6 million and $2 million at September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015, respectively) and the offsetting adjustment to the carrying value of the 9-7/8% Senior Notes are both included in long-term debt on AFG’s Balance Sheet. Accordingly, the net impact on AFG’s current period earnings is that the interest expense associated with the hedged debt is effectively recorded at the floating rate. The net reduction in interest expense from the swap was $1 million in the third quarter of 2016, $3 million in the first nine months of 2016 and $1 million in both the third quarter and first nine months of 2015.


28
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


G.    Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs

A progression of deferred policy acquisition costs is presented below (in millions):
 
P&C
 
 
Annuity and Run-off Long-term Care and Life
 
 
 
 
Deferred
 
 
Deferred
 
Sales
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Consolidated
 
Costs
 
 
Costs
 
Inducements
 
PVFP
 
Subtotal
 
Unrealized
 
Total
 
 
Total
Balance at June 30, 2016
$
234

 
 
$
1,089

 
$
116

 
$
51

 
$
1,256

 
$
(609
)
 
$
647

 
 
$
881

Additions
132

 
 
48

 
1

 
—

 
49

 
—

 
49

 
 
181

Amortization:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Periodic amortization
(134
)
 
 
(42
)
 
(6
)
 
(3
)
 
(51
)
 
—

 
(51
)
 
 
(185
)
Included in realized gains
—

 
 
1

 
—

 
—

 
1

 
—

 
1

 
 
1

Foreign currency translation
(1
)
 
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
 
(1
)
Change in unrealized
—

 
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(10
)
 
(10
)
 
 
(10
)
Balance at September 30, 2016
$
231

 
 
$
1,096

 
$
111

 
$
48

 
$
1,255

 
$
(619
)
 
$
636

 
 
$
867

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Balance at June 30, 2015
$
223

 
 
$
934

 
$
123

 
$
68

 
$
1,125

 
$
(383
)
 
$
742

 
 
$
965

Additions
138

 
 
74

 
3

 
—

 
77

 
—

 
77

 
 
215

Amortization:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


 
 
 
Periodic amortization
(132
)
 
 
(36
)
 
(6
)
 
(3
)
 
(45
)
 
—

 
(45
)
 
 
(177
)
Included in realized gains
—

 
 
3

 
—

 
—

 
3

 
—

 
3

 
 
3

Foreign currency translation
(2
)
 
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
 
(2
)
Change in unrealized
—

 
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(11
)
 
(11
)
 
 
(11
)
Balance at September 30, 2015
$
227

 
 
$
975

 
$
120

 
$
65

 
$
1,160

 
$
(394
)
 
$
766

 
 
$
993

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Balance at December 31, 2015
$
226

 
 
$
1,018

 
$
119

 
$
55

 
$
1,192

 
$
(234
)
 
$
958

 
 
$
1,184

Additions
403

 
 
172

 
8

 
—

 
180

 
—

 
180

 
 
583

Amortization:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Periodic amortization
(396
)
 
 
(99
)
 
(17
)
 
(7
)
 
(123
)
 
—

 
(123
)
 
 
(519
)
Included in realized gains
—

 
 
5

 
1

 
—

 
6

 
—

 
6

 
 
6

Foreign currency translation
(2
)
 
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
 
(2
)
Change in unrealized
—

 
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(385
)
 
(385
)
 
 
(385
)
Balance at September 30, 2016
$
231

 
 
$
1,096

 
$
111

 
$
48

 
$
1,255

 
$
(619
)
 
$
636

 
 
$
867

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Balance at December 31, 2014
$
221

 
 
$
925

 
$
132

 
$
74

 
$
1,131

 
$
(531
)
 
$
600

 
 
$
821

Additions
396

 
 
164

 
7

 
—

 
171

 
—

 
171

 
 
567

Amortization:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Periodic amortization
(388
)
 
 
(120
)
 
(20
)
 
(9
)
 
(149
)
 
—

 
(149
)
 
 
(537
)
Included in realized gains
—

 
 
6

 
1

 
—

 
7

 
—

 
7

 
 
7

Foreign currency translation
(2
)
 
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
 
(2
)
Change in unrealized
—

 
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
137

 
137

 
 
137

Balance at September 30, 2015
$
227

 
 
$
975

 
$
120

 
$
65

 
$
1,160

 
$
(394
)
 
$
766

 
 
$
993


The present value of future profits (“PVFP”) amounts in the table above are net of $132 million and $125 million of accumulated amortization at September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015, respectively.


29
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


H.    Managed Investment Entities

AFG is the investment manager and its subsidiaries have investments ranging from 15.0% to 60.7% of the most subordinate debt tranche of fourteen collateralized loan obligation entities or “CLOs,” which are considered variable interest entities. AFG’s subsidiaries also own portions of the senior debt tranches of certain of these CLOs. Upon formation between 2004 and 2016, these entities issued securities in various senior and subordinate classes and invested the proceeds primarily in secured bank loans, which serve as collateral for the debt securities issued by each particular CLO. None of the collateral was purchased from AFG. AFG’s investments in the subordinate debt tranches of these entities receive residual income from the CLOs only after the CLOs pay expenses (including management fees to AFG), and interest on and returns of capital to senior levels of debt securities. There are no contractual requirements for AFG to provide additional funding for these entities. AFG has not provided and does not intend to provide any financial support to these entities.

AFG’s maximum exposure to economic loss on its CLOs is limited to its investment in the CLOs, which had an aggregate fair value of $245 million (including $126 million invested in the most subordinate tranches) at September 30, 2016, and $266 million at December 31, 2015. At September 30, 2016, AFG had $40 million of additional subordinate CLO-related exposure to a temporary warehousing facility that was established in connection with the formation of a new CLO. The warehousing facility terminated with no loss to AFG when the new CLO was issued on November 3, 2016.

In May 2016, AFG formed a new CLO, which issued $406 million face amount of liabilities (including $36 million face amount purchased by subsidiaries of AFG). During the first nine months of 2016, AFG subsidiaries also purchased $19 million face amount of senior debt and subordinate tranches of existing CLOs for $15 million. In May 2015, AFG formed a new CLO, which issued $511 million face amount of liabilities (including $45 million face amount purchased by subsidiaries of AFG). During the first nine months of 2016 and 2015, AFG subsidiaries received $69 million and $1 million, respectively, in sale and redemption proceeds from its CLO investments.

The revenues and expenses of the CLOs are separately identified in AFG’s Statement of Earnings, after the elimination of management fees and earnings attributable to shareholders of AFG as measured by the change in the fair value of AFG’s investments in the CLOs. See Note A — “Accounting Policies — Managed Investment Entities,” for a discussion of accounting guidance adopted on January 1, 2015 that impacts the measurement of the fair value of CLO liabilities. Selected financial information related to the CLOs is shown below (in millions): 
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
2016
 
2015
 
2016
 
2015
Gains (losses) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities (a):
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Assets
$
60

 
$
(53
)
 
$
107

 
$
(27
)
Liabilities
(49
)
 
42

 
(98
)
 
11

Management fees paid to AFG
4

 
4

 
12

 
11

CLO earnings (losses) attributable to AFG shareholders (b)
17

 
(3
)
 
29

 
5


(a)
Included in revenues in AFG’s Statement of Earnings.
(b)
Included in earnings before income taxes in AFG’s Statement of Earnings.
The aggregate unpaid principal balance of the CLOs’ fixed maturity investments exceeded the fair value of the investments by $93 million and $214 million at September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015. The aggregate unpaid principal balance of the CLOs’ debt exceeded its carrying value by $159 million and $205 million at those dates. The CLO assets include $1 million in loans at both September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015, for which the CLOs are not accruing interest because the loans are in default (aggregate unpaid principal balance of $10 million at both those dates).

I.    Goodwill and Other Intangibles

There were no changes in the goodwill balance of $199 million during the first nine months of 2016. Included in other assets in AFG’s Balance Sheet is $36 million at September 30, 2016 and $41 million at December 31, 2015 in amortizable intangible assets related to property and casualty insurance acquisitions. These amounts are net of accumulated amortization of $23 million and $18 million, respectively. Amortization of intangibles was $2 million in both the third quarters of 2016 and 2015 and $6 million in both the first nine months of 2016 and 2015.


30
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


J.    Long-Term Debt

Long-term debt consisted of the following (in millions):
 
September 30, 2016
 
December 31, 2015
 
Principal
 
Discount and Issue Costs
 
Carrying Value
 
Principal
 
Discount and Issue Costs
 
Carrying Value
Direct Senior Obligations of AFG:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
9-7/8% Senior Notes due June 2019
$
350

 
$
(1
)
 
$
349

 
$
350

 
$
(1
)
 
$
349

3-1/2% Senior Notes due August 2026
300

 
(4
)
 
296

 
—

 
—

 
—

6-3/8% Senior Notes due June 2042
230

 
(7
)
 
223

 
230

 
(7
)
 
223

5-3/4% Senior Notes due August 2042
125

 
(4
)
 
121

 
125

 
(4
)
 
121

Other
3

 
—

 
3

 
3

 
—

 
3

 
1,008

 
(16
)
 
992

 
708

 
(12
)
 
696

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Direct Subordinated Obligations of AFG:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
6-1/4% Subordinated Debentures due September 2054
150

 
(5
)
 
145

 
150

 
(5
)
 
145

6% Subordinated Debentures due November 2055
150

 
(5
)
 
145

 
150

 
(5
)
 
145

 
300

 
(10
)
 
290

 
300

 
(10
)
 
290

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Subsidiaries:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
National Interstate bank credit facility
18

 
—

 
18

 
12

 
—

 
12

 
$
1,326

 
$
(26
)
 
$
1,300

 
$
1,020

 
$
(22
)
 
$
998


To achieve a desired balance between fixed and variable rate debt, AFG entered into an interest rate swap in June 2015, which effectively converts its 9-7/8% Senior Notes to a floating rate of three-month LIBOR plus 8.099% (8.9493% at September 30, 2016 and 8.6110% at December 31, 2015). The fair value of the interest rate swap (asset of $6 million and $2 million at September 30, 2016 and December 31, 2015, respectively) and the offsetting adjustment to the carrying value of the notes are both included in the carrying value of the 9-7/8% Senior Notes in the table above.

Scheduled principal payments on debt for the balance of 2016, the subsequent five years and thereafter were as follows:
2016 — $18 million; 2017 — none; 2018 — none; 2019 — $350 million; 2020 — none; 2021 — none and thereafter — $958 million.

As shown below (principal amount, in millions), the majority of AFG’s long-term debt is unsecured obligations of the holding company and its subsidiaries:
 
September 30,
2016
 
December 31,
2015
Senior unsecured obligations
$
1,026

 
$
720

Subordinated unsecured obligations
300

 
300

 
$
1,326

 
$
1,020


In August 2016, AFG issued $300 million in 3-1/2% Senior Notes due in 2026 at a price of 99.608%. The net proceeds of the offering will be used to fund a portion of the proposed acquisition of all shares of National Interstate Corporation common stock that are not currently owned by AFG (discussed in Note B — “Acquisition and Sale of Businesses”).

In June 2016, AFG replaced its existing credit facility with a new five-year, $500 million revolving credit facility which expires in June 2021. Amounts borrowed under this agreement bear interest at rates ranging from 1.00% to 1.875% (currently 1.375%) over LIBOR based on AFG’s credit rating. No amounts were borrowed under this facility at September 30, 2016 or AFG’s previous credit facility at December 31, 2015.

National Interstate can borrow up to $100 million under its unsecured credit agreement, which expires in November 2017. At September 30, 2016, there was $18 million outstanding under this agreement, including $6 million borrowed in September 2016. If the National Interstate merger (discussed in Note B — “Acquisition and Sale of Businesses”) is consummated

31
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


following the November 10, 2016 NATL shareholders’ meeting, the entire amount outstanding under this agreement will be repaid and the credit agreement will be terminated. This expected repayment is reflected in the scheduled principal payments information presented above.

K.    Shareholders’ Equity

AFG is authorized to issue 12.5 million shares of Voting Preferred Stock and 12.5 million shares of Nonvoting Preferred Stock, each without par value.

Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income, Net of Tax (“AOCI”)   Comprehensive income is defined as all changes in shareholders’ equity except those arising from transactions with shareholders. Comprehensive income includes net earnings and other comprehensive income, which consists primarily of changes in net unrealized gains or losses on available for sale securities.

The progression of the components of accumulated other comprehensive income follows (in millions): 
  
 
 
Other Comprehensive Income
 
 
  
AOCI
Beginning
Balance
 
Pretax
 
Tax
 
Net
of
tax
 
Attributable to
noncontrolling
interests
 
Attributable to
shareholders
 
AOCI
Ending
Balance
Quarter ended September 30, 2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net unrealized gains (losses) on securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unrealized holding gains (losses) on securities arising during the period
 
 
$
138

 
$
(49
)
 
$
89

 
$
(1
)
 
$
88

 


Reclassification adjustment for realized (gains) losses included in net earnings (a)
 
 
(2
)
 
1

 
(1
)
 
—

 
(1
)
 


Total net unrealized gains on securities (b)
$
685

 
136

 
(48
)
 
88

 
(1
)
 
87

 
$
772

Net unrealized gains (losses) on cash flow hedges
5

 
(1
)
 
1

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
5

Foreign currency translation adjustments
(15
)
 
(2
)
 
(1
)
 
(3
)
 
—

 
(3
)
 
(18
)
Pension and other postretirement plans adjustments
(6
)
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(6
)
Total
$
669

 
$
133

 
$
(48
)
 
$
85

 
$
(1
)
 
$
84

 
$
753

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Quarter ended September 30, 2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net unrealized gains (losses) on securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unrealized holding losses on securities arising during the period
 
 
$
(171
)
 
$
61

 
$
(110
)
 
$
3

 
$
(107
)
 
 
Reclassification adjustment for realized (gains) losses included in net earnings (a)
 
 
16

 
(6
)
 
10

 
(1
)
 
9

 
 
Total net unrealized gains (losses) on securities
$
587

 
(155
)
 
55

 
(100
)
 
2

 
(98
)
 
$
489

Net unrealized gains on cash flow hedges
—

 
3

 
(1
)
 
2

 
—

 
2

 
2

Foreign currency translation adjustments
(16
)
 
(5
)
 
(2
)
 
(7
)
 
—

 
(7
)
 
(23
)
Pension and other postretirement plans adjustments
(8
)
 
1

 
—

 
1

 
—

 
1

 
(7
)
Total
$
563

 
$
(156
)
 
$
52

 
$
(104
)
 
$
2

 
$
(102
)
 
$
461

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

32
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


  
 
 
Other Comprehensive Income
 
 
  
AOCI
Beginning
Balance
 
Pretax
 
Tax
 
Net
of
tax
 
Attributable to
noncontrolling
interests
 
Attributable to
shareholders
 
AOCI
Ending
Balance
Nine months ended September 30, 2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net unrealized gains (losses) on securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unrealized holding gains (losses) on securities arising during the period
 
 
$
656

 
$
(229
)
 
$
427

 
$
(6
)
 
$
421

 


Reclassification adjustment for realized (gains) losses included in net earnings (a)
 
 
32

 
(12
)
 
20

 
(1
)
 
19

 


Total net unrealized gains on securities (b)
$
332

 
688

 
(241
)
 
447

 
(7
)
 
440

 
$
772

Net unrealized gains on cash flow hedges
1

 
6

 
(2
)
 
4

 
—

 
4

 
5

Foreign currency translation adjustments
(22
)
 
2

 
2

 
4

 
—

 
4

 
(18
)
Pension and other postretirement plans adjustments
(7
)
 
1

 
—

 
1

 
—

 
1

 
(6
)
Total
$
304

 
$
697

 
$
(241
)
 
$
456

 
$
(7
)
 
$
449

 
$
753

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Nine months ended September 30, 2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net unrealized gains (losses) on securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unrealized holding losses on securities arising during the period
 
 
$
(394
)
 
$
139

 
$
(255
)
 
$
5

 
$
(250
)
 
 
Reclassification adjustment for realized (gains) losses included in net earnings (a)
 
 
(4
)
 
1

 
(3
)
 
(1
)
 
(4
)
 
 
Total net unrealized gains (losses) on securities
$
743

 
(398
)
 
140

 
(258
)
 
4

 
(254
)
 
$
489

Net unrealized gains on cash flow hedges
—

 
3

 
(1
)
 
2

 
—

 
2

 
2

Foreign currency translation adjustments
(8
)
 
(11
)
 
(4
)
 
(15
)
 
—

 
(15
)
 
(23
)
Pension and other postretirement plans adjustments
(8
)
 
1

 
—

 
1

 
—

 
1

 
(7
)
Total
$
727

 
$
(405
)
 
$
135

 
$
(270
)
 
$
4

 
$
(266
)
 
$
461


(a)
The reclassification adjustment out of net unrealized gains on securities affected the following lines in AFG’s Statement of Earnings:
 
OCI component
 
Affected line in the statement of earnings
 
 
Pretax
 
Realized gains (losses) on securities
 
 
Tax
 
Provision for income taxes
 
 
Attributable to noncontrolling interests
 
Net earnings (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests
 

(b)
Includes net unrealized gains of $51 million at September 30, 2016 compared to $48 million at June 30, 2016 and $51 million at December 31, 2015 related to securities for which only the credit portion of an other-than-temporary impairment has been recorded in earnings.

Stock Incentive Plans   Under AFG’s stock incentive plans, employees of AFG and its subsidiaries are eligible to receive equity awards in the form of stock options, stock appreciation rights, restricted stock awards, restricted stock units and stock awards. In the first nine months of 2016, AFG issued 318,940 shares of restricted Common Stock (average fair value of $67.00 per share) under the Stock Incentive Plan. In addition, AFG issued 40,336 shares of Common Stock (fair value of $71.05 per share) in the first quarter of 2016 under the Equity Bonus Plan. AFG did not grant any stock options in the first nine months of 2016.

Total compensation expense related to stock incentive plans of AFG and its subsidiaries was $7 million and $5 million in the third quarters of 2016 and 2015 and $21 million and $18 million in the first nine months of 2016 and 2015, respectively.


33
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS — CONTINUED


L.    Income Taxes

The following is a reconciliation of income taxes at the statutory rate of 35% to the provision for income taxes as shown in AFG’s Statement of Earnings (dollars in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
 
2016
 
2015
 
Amount
 
% of EBT
 
Amount
 
% of EBT
 
Amount
 
% of EBT
 
Amount
 
% of EBT
Earnings before income taxes (“EBT”)
$
178

 
 
 
$
99

 
 
 
$
470

 
 
 
$
355

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Income taxes at statutory rate
$
63

 
35
%
 
$
34

 
35
%
 
$
165

 
35
%
 
$
124

 
35
%
Effect of:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax exempt interest
(5
)
 
(3
%)
 
(6
)
 
(6
%)
 
(18
)
 
(4
%)
 
(20
)
 
(6
%)
Change in valuation allowance
7

 
4
%
 
8

 
8
%
 
40

 
9
%
 
8

 
2
%
Subsidiaries not in AFG’s tax return
2

 
1
%
 
—

 
—
%
 
4

 
1
%
 
2

 
1
%
Other
(2
)
 
—
%
 
(3
)
 
(4
%)
 
(1
)
 
(1
%)
 
1

 
—
%
Provision for income taxes as shown in the statement of earnings
$
65

 
37
%
 
$
33

 
33
%
 
$
190

 
40
%
 
$
115

 
32
%

Excluding the $65 million charge related to the exit of certain lines of business within Neon, AFG’s Lloyd’s-based insurer, AFG’s effective tax rate for the nine months ended September 30, 2016, was 36%. AFG maintains a full valuation allowance against the deferred tax benefits associated with losses related to Neon.

During the first nine months of 2016, there were no material changes to AFG’s liability for uncertain tax positions.

M.     Contingencies

There have been no significant changes to the matters discussed and referred to in Note M — “Contingencies” of AFG’s 2015 Form 10-K, which covers property and casualty insurance reserves for claims related to environmental exposures, asbestos and other mass tort claims and environmental and occupational injury and disease claims of former subsidiary railroad and manufacturing operations, as well as contingencies related to the sale of substantially all of AFG’s run-off long-term care insurance business.


34
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
ITEM 2
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

INDEX TO MD&A
 
Page
 
 
Page
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a safe harbor for forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as “anticipates”, “believes”, “expects”, “projects”, “estimates”, “intends”, “plans”, “seeks”, “could”, “may”, “should”, “will” or the negative version of those words or other comparable terminology. Such forward-looking statements include statements relating to: expectations concerning market and other conditions and their effect on future premiums, revenues, earnings, investment activities, and the amount and timing of share repurchases; recoverability of asset values; expected losses and the adequacy of reserves for asbestos, environmental pollution and mass tort claims; rate changes; and improved loss experience.

Actual results and/or financial condition could differ materially from those contained in or implied by such forward-looking statements for a variety of reasons including but not limited to:
•
changes in financial, political and economic conditions, including changes in interest and inflation rates, currency fluctuations and extended economic recessions or expansions in the U.S. and/or abroad;
•
performance of securities markets;
•
new legislation or declines in credit quality or credit ratings that could have a material impact on the valuation of securities in AFG’s investment portfolio;
•
the availability of capital;
•
the possibility that the proposal to acquire all shares of National Interstate Corporation that are not currently owned by AFG’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Great American Insurance Company is not consummated;
•
regulatory actions (including changes in statutory accounting rules);
•
changes in the legal environment affecting AFG or its customers;
•
tax law and accounting changes;
•
levels of natural catastrophes and severe weather, terrorist activities (including any nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological events), incidents of war or losses resulting from civil unrest and other major losses;
•
development of insurance loss reserves and establishment of other reserves, particularly with respect to amounts associated with asbestos and environmental claims;
•
availability of reinsurance and ability of reinsurers to pay their obligations;
•
trends in persistency and mortality;
•
competitive pressures;
•
the ability to obtain adequate rates and policy terms;
•
changes in AFG’s credit ratings or the financial strength ratings assigned by major ratings agencies to AFG’s operating subsidiaries; and

35
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


•
the impact of the conditions in the international financial markets and the global economy (including those associated with the United Kingdom’s expected withdrawal from the European Union, or “Brexit”) relating to AFG’s international operations.
The forward-looking statements herein are made only as of the date of this report. The Company assumes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements.

OVERVIEW

Financial Condition

AFG is organized as a holding company with almost all of its operations being conducted by subsidiaries. AFG, however, has continuing cash needs for administrative expenses, the payment of principal and interest on borrowings, shareholder dividends, and taxes. Therefore, certain analyses are most meaningfully presented on a parent only basis while others are best done on a total enterprise basis. In addition, because most of its businesses are financial in nature, AFG does not prepare its consolidated financial statements using a current-noncurrent format. Consequently, certain traditional ratios and financial analysis tests are not meaningful.

Results of Operations

Through the operations of its subsidiaries, AFG is engaged primarily in property and casualty insurance, focusing on specialized commercial products for businesses and in the sale of fixed and fixed-indexed annuities in the retail, financial institutions and education markets.

Net earnings attributable to AFG’s shareholders for the third quarter and first nine months of 2016 were $109 million ($1.23 per share, diluted) and $264 million ($2.98 per share, diluted), respectively, compared to $63 million ($0.71 per share, diluted) and $223 million ($2.49 per share, diluted) reported in the same periods of 2015, reflecting:
•
higher underwriting profit and net investment income in the property and casualty insurance segment,
•
higher earnings in the annuity segment,
•
realized gains on securities in the third quarter of 2016 and realized losses in the first nine months of 2016 compared to realized losses on securities in the third quarter of 2015 and realized gains on securities in the first nine months of 2015,
•
the second quarter 2016 gain on the sale of an apartment property, which was less than the second quarter 2015 gain on the sale of Le Pavillon Hotel, and
•
the first quarter 2015 estimated loss on the sale of substantially all of AFG’s run-off long-term care insurance business, which was completed in December 2015.

CRITICAL ACCOUNTING POLICIES

Significant accounting policies are summarized in Note A — “Accounting Policies” to the financial statements. The preparation of financial statements in conformity with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”) requires management to make estimates and assumptions that can have a significant effect on amounts reported in the financial statements. As more information becomes known, these estimates and assumptions change and, thus, impact amounts reported in the future. The areas where management believes the degree of judgment required to determine amounts recorded in the financial statements is most significant are as follows:
•
the establishment of insurance reserves, especially asbestos and environmental-related reserves,
•
the recoverability of reinsurance,
•
the recoverability of deferred acquisition costs,
•
the establishment of asbestos and environmental reserves of former railroad and manufacturing operations, and
•
the valuation of investments, including the determination of other-than-temporary impairments.

For a discussion of these policies, see Management’s Discussion and Analysis — “Critical Accounting Policies” in AFG’s 2015 Form 10-K.


36
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

Ratios   AFG’s debt to total capital ratio on a consolidated basis is shown below (dollars in millions):
 
 
September 30,
2016
 
December 31,
2015
 
2014
Principal amount of long-term debt
 
$
1,326

 
$
1,020

 
$
1,061

Total capital
 
6,015

 
5,512

 
5,513

Ratio of debt to total capital:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Including subordinated debt and debt secured by real estate
 
22.0
%
 
18.5
%
 
19.2
%
Excluding subordinated debt and debt secured by real estate
 
17.1
%
 
13.1
%
 
15.6
%

The ratio of debt to total capital is a non-GAAP measure that management believes is useful for investors, analysts and independent ratings agencies to evaluate AFG’s financial strength and liquidity and to provide insight into how AFG finances its operations. In addition, maintaining a ratio of debt, excluding subordinated debt and debt secured by real estate, to total capital of 35% or lower is a financial covenant in AFG’s bank credit facility. The ratio is calculated by dividing the principal amount of AFG’s long-term debt by its total capital, which includes long-term debt, noncontrolling interests and shareholders’ equity (excluding unrealized gains (losses) related to fixed maturity investments and appropriated retained earnings related to managed investment entities).

AFG’s ratio of earnings to fixed charges, including annuity benefits as a fixed charge, was 1.63 for the nine months ended September 30, 2016 and 1.66 for the year ended December 31, 2015. Excluding annuity benefits, this ratio was 7.07 and 6.58, respectively. Although the ratio excluding annuity benefits is not required or encouraged to be disclosed under Securities and Exchange Commission rules, it is presented because interest credited to annuity policyholder accounts is not always considered a borrowing cost for an insurance company.

Condensed Consolidated Cash Flows   AFG’s principal sources of cash include insurance premiums, income from its investment portfolio and proceeds from the maturities, redemptions and sales of investments. Insurance premiums in excess of acquisition expenses and operating costs are invested until they are needed to meet policyholder obligations or made available to the parent company through dividends to cover debt obligations and corporate expenses, and to provide returns to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Cash flows from operating, investing and financing activities as detailed in AFG’s Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows are shown below (in millions):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
Net cash provided by operating activities
$
673

 
$
907

Net cash used in investing activities
(2,446
)
 
(3,415
)
Net cash provided by financing activities
2,192

 
2,059

Net change in cash and cash equivalents
$
419

 
$
(449
)

Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities   AFG’s property and casualty insurance operations typically produce positive net operating cash flows as premiums collected and investment income exceed policy acquisition costs, claims payments and operating expenses. AFG’s net cash provided by operating activities is impacted by the level and timing of property and casualty premiums, claim and expense payments and recoveries from reinsurers. AFG’s annuity operations typically produce positive net operating cash flows as investment income exceeds acquisition costs and operating expenses. Interest credited on annuity policyholder funds is a non-cash increase in AFG’s annuity benefits accumulated liability and annuity premiums, benefits and withdrawals are considered financing activities due to the deposit-type nature of annuities. Net cash provided by operating activities was $673 million for the first nine months of 2016 compared to $907 million in the first nine months of 2015, a decrease of $234 million.

Net Cash Used in Investing Activities   AFG’s investing activities consist primarily of the investment of funds provided by its property and casualty and annuity products. Net cash used in investing activities was $2.45 billion for the first nine months of 2016 compared to $3.42 billion in the first nine months of 2015, a decrease of $969 million. The $101 million decrease in net cash flows from annuity policyholders in the first nine months of 2016 as compared to the 2015 period (discussed below under net cash provided by financing activities) decreased the amount of cash available for investment in the first nine months of

37
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


2016 compared to the same 2015 period. In addition to the investment of funds provided by the insurance operations, investing activities also include the purchase and disposal of managed investment entity investments (collateralized loan obligations), which are presented separately in AFG’s Balance Sheet. Net investment activity in the managed investment entities was a $24 million use of cash in the first nine months of 2016 compared to a $482 million use of cash in the 2015 period, accounting for a $458 million decrease in net cash used in investing activities in the first nine months of 2016 compared to the same 2015 period. See Note A — “Accounting Policies — Managed Investment Entities” and Note H — “Managed Investment Entities” to the financial statements.

Net Cash Provided by Financing Activities   AFG’s financing activities consist primarily of transactions with annuity policyholders, issuances and retirements of long-term debt, repurchases of common stock and dividend payments. Net cash provided by financing activities was $2.19 billion for the first nine months of 2016 compared to $2.06 billion in the first nine months of 2015, an increase of $133 million. Annuity receipts exceeded annuity surrenders, benefits, withdrawals and transfers by $1.78 billion in the first nine months of 2016 compared to $1.88 billion in the first nine months of 2015, resulting in a $101 million decrease in net cash provided by financing activities in the 2016 period compared to the 2015 period. In August 2016, AFG issued $300 million of 3-1/2% Senior Notes due 2026, the net proceeds of which contributed $296 million to net cash provided by financing activities in the first nine months of 2016. Redemptions of long-term debt was a $182 million use of cash in the first nine months of 2015. During the first nine months of 2016, AFG repurchased $124 million of its Common Stock compared to $113 million repurchased in the first nine months of 2015, which accounted for an $11 million decrease in net cash provided by financing activities in the 2016 period compared to the 2015 period. Financing activities also include issuances and retirements of managed investment entity liabilities, which are nonrecourse to AFG and presented separately in AFG’s Balance Sheet. Issuances of managed investment entity liabilities exceeded retirements by $281 million in the first nine months of 2016 compared to $501 million in the first nine months of 2015, accounting for a $220 million decrease in net cash provided by financing activities in the 2016 period compared to the 2015 period. See Note A — “Accounting Policies — Managed Investment Entities” and Note H — “Managed Investment Entities” to the financial statements.

Parent and Subsidiary Liquidity

Parent Holding Company Liquidity   Management believes AFG has sufficient resources to meet its liquidity requirements. If funds generated from operations, including dividends, tax payments and borrowings from subsidiaries, are insufficient to meet fixed charges in any period, AFG would be required to utilize parent company cash and marketable securities or to generate cash through borrowings, sales of other assets, or similar transactions.

In June 2016, AFG replaced its bank credit facility with a five-year, $500 million revolving credit line. Amounts borrowed under this agreement bear interest at rates ranging from 1.00% to 1.875% (currently 1.375%) over LIBOR based on AFG’s credit rating. There were no borrowings under this agreement, or under any other parent company short-term borrowing arrangements, during 2015 or the first nine months of 2016.

On July 25, 2016, AFG announced that it had reached an agreement with the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of National Interstate Corporation (“NATL”) to acquire all shares of NATL that it does not currently own. NATL is a 51%-owned property and casualty insurance subsidiary of AFG’s wholly-owned property and casualty insurance subsidiary, Great American Insurance Company (“GAI”). Shareholders of NATL, other than GAI, will receive $32.00 per share in cash in the transaction. In addition, NATL will pay a one-time special dividend to its shareholders of $0.50 per NATL share in cash immediately prior to the closing of the merger. The transaction remains subject to the approval of shareholders holding a majority of the shares of NATL not owned by AFG or its affiliates at a special meeting of NATL shareholders to be held on November 10, 2016. Based on the $32.00 per share purchase price plus $0.50 special dividend, the purchase price to acquire the NATL shares not currently owned by GAI will be approximately $320 million.

In August 2016, AFG issued $300 million of 3-1/2% Senior Notes due 2026. AFG intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund a portion of the proposed acquisition of all of the shares of NATL that it does not currently own, which is expected to occur in the fourth quarter of 2016.

During the first nine months of 2016, AFG repurchased 1.8 million shares of its Common Stock for $124 million. In November 2016, AFG declared a special cash dividend of $1.00 per share of AFG Common Stock (approximately $87 million). This special cash dividend is in addition to AFG’s regular quarterly cash dividend. During 2015, AFG repurchased 2.0 million shares of its Common Stock for $126 million.


38
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Under a tax allocation agreement with AFG, its 80%-owned U.S. subsidiaries generally pay taxes to (or recover taxes from) AFG based on each subsidiary’s contribution to amounts due under AFG’s consolidated tax return.

Subsidiary Liquidity   Great American Life Insurance Company (“GALIC”), a wholly-owned annuity subsidiary, is a member of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Cincinnati (“FHLB”). The FHLB makes advances and provides other banking services to member institutions, which provides the annuity operations with a substantial additional source of liquidity. These advances further the FHLB’s mission of improving access to housing by increasing liquidity in the residential mortgage-backed securities market. At September 30, 2016, GALIC had $935 million in outstanding advances from the FHLB (included in annuity benefits accumulated), bearing interest at rates ranging from 0.02% to 0.49% over LIBOR (average rate of 0.94% at September 30, 2016). While these advances must be repaid between 2016 and 2021 ($200 million in 2016, $285 million in 2018, $300 million in 2020 and $150 million in 2021), GALIC has the option to prepay all or a portion of the advances. GALIC has invested the proceeds from the advances in fixed maturity securities with similar expected lives as the advances for the purpose of earning a spread over the interest payments due to the FHLB. At September 30, 2016, GALIC estimated that it had additional borrowing capacity of approximately $500 million from the FHLB.

NATL can borrow up to $100 million under its unsecured credit agreement, which expires in November 2017. There was $18 million borrowed under this agreement at September 30, 2016, including $6 million borrowed in September 2016. Amounts borrowed under the NATL credit agreement will be repaid and this credit agreement will be terminated immediately prior to the consummation of the proposed transaction under which AFG would acquire all of the NATL shares that it does not currently own, which is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2016.

The liquidity requirements of AFG’s insurance subsidiaries relate primarily to the liabilities associated with their products as well as operating costs and expenses, payments of dividends and taxes to AFG and contributions of capital to their subsidiaries. Historically, cash flows from premiums and investment income have generally provided more than sufficient funds to meet these requirements. Funds received in excess of cash requirements are generally invested in additional marketable securities. In addition, the insurance subsidiaries generally hold a significant amount of highly liquid, short-term investments.

The excess cash flow of AFG’s property and casualty group allows it to extend the duration of its investment portfolio somewhat beyond that of its claim reserves.
 
In the annuity business, where profitability is largely dependent on earning a spread between invested assets and annuity liabilities, the duration of investments is generally maintained close to that of liabilities. In a rising interest rate environment, significant protection from withdrawals exists in the form of temporary and permanent surrender charges on AFG’s annuity products. With declining rates, AFG receives some protection (from spread compression) due to the ability to lower crediting rates, subject to contractually guaranteed minimum interest rates (“GMIRs”). AFG began selling policies with GMIRs below 2% in 2003; almost all new business since late 2010 has been issued with a 1% GMIR. At September 30, 2016, AFG could reduce the average crediting rate on approximately $22 billion of traditional fixed and fixed-indexed deferred annuities without guaranteed withdrawal benefits by approximately 76 basis points (on a weighted average basis). Annuity policies are subject to GMIRs at policy issuance. The table below shows the breakdown of annuity reserves by GMIR. The current interest crediting rates on substantially all of AFG’s annuities with a GMIR of 3% or higher are at their minimum.
 
 
 
 
 
% of Reserves
 
 
 
 
 
 
at September 30,
 
 
GMIR
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
 
1 — 1.99%
 
 
 
71%
 
64%
 
 
2 — 2.99%
 
 
 
  6%
 
  8%
 
 
3 — 3.99%
 
 
 
12%
 
15%
 
 
4.00% and above
 
 
 
11%
 
13%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Annuity benefits accumulated (in millions)
 
$29,222
 
$26,026
 

At the beginning of 2016, AFG’s cost of funds (interest credited plus the cost of options) for newly-issued traditional fixed and fixed-indexed annuities was 2.50% (after adjusting for the timing of option purchases, and the cost of upfront bonuses and certain policy features). As a result of the decline in market investment yields during the second quarter of 2016, AFG took several actions that reduced the weekly cost of funds on new business to 2.16% as of October 17, 2016. In addition to lowering the cost of funds, AFG also reduced certain commission rates and rider benefits for contracts issued during 2016. The year-to-

39
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


date 2016 weighted average cost of funds for newly issued traditional fixed and fixed-indexed annuities through October 17, 2016 was 2.26%.

AFG believes its insurance subsidiaries maintain sufficient liquidity to pay claims and benefits and operating expenses. In addition, these subsidiaries have sufficient capital to meet commitments in the event of unforeseen events such as reserve deficiencies, inadequate premium rates or reinsurer insolvencies. Nonetheless, changes in statutory accounting rules, significant declines in the fair value of the insurance subsidiaries’ investment portfolios or significant ratings downgrades on these investments, could create a need for additional capital.


Investments   AFG’s investment portfolio at September 30, 2016, contained $35.39 billion in fixed maturity securities and $1.55 billion in equity securities classified as available for sale and carried at fair value with unrealized gains and losses included in a separate component of shareholders’ equity on an after-tax basis. In addition, $348 million in fixed maturities and $86 million in equity securities were classified as trading with changes in unrealized holding gains or losses included in net investment income.

Fair values for AFG’s portfolio are determined by AFG’s internal investment professionals using data from nationally recognized pricing services as well as non-binding broker quotes. Fair values of equity securities are generally based on published closing prices. For mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”), which comprise approximately 16% of AFG’s fixed maturities, prices for each security are generally obtained from both pricing services and broker quotes. For the remainder of AFG’s fixed maturity portfolio, approximately 79% are priced using pricing services and the balance is priced primarily by using non-binding broker quotes. When prices obtained for the same security vary, AFG’s internal investment professionals select the price they believe is most indicative of an exit price.

The pricing services use a variety of observable inputs to estimate fair value of fixed maturities that do not trade on a daily basis. Based upon information provided by the pricing services, these inputs include, but are not limited to, recent reported trades, benchmark yields, issuer spreads, bids or offers, reference data, and measures of volatility. Included in the pricing of MBS are estimates of the rate of future prepayments and defaults of principal over the remaining life of the underlying collateral. Due to the lack of transparency in the process that brokers use to develop prices, valuations that are based on brokers’ prices are classified as Level 3 in the GAAP hierarchy unless the price can be corroborated, for example, by comparison to similar securities priced using observable inputs.

Valuation techniques utilized by pricing services and prices obtained from external sources are reviewed by AFG’s internal investment professionals who are familiar with the securities being priced and the markets in which they trade to ensure the fair value determination is representative of an exit price. To validate the appropriateness of the prices obtained, these investment managers consider widely published indices (as benchmarks), recent trades, changes in interest rates, general economic conditions and the credit quality of the specific issuers. In addition, AFG communicates directly with pricing services regarding the methods and assumptions used in pricing, including verifying, on a test basis, the inputs used by the services to value specific securities.

In general, the fair value of AFG’s fixed maturity investments is inversely correlated to changes in interest rates. The following table demonstrates the sensitivity of such fair values to reasonably likely changes in interest rates by illustrating the estimated effect on AFG’s fixed maturity portfolio and accumulated other comprehensive income that an immediate increase of 100 basis points in the interest rate yield curve would have at September 30, 2016 (dollars in millions). Effects of increases or decreases from the 100 basis points illustrated would be approximately proportional.

Fair value of fixed maturity portfolio
$
35,742

Percentage impact on fair value of 100 bps increase in interest rates
(5.0
%)
Pretax impact on fair value of fixed maturity portfolio
$
(1,787
)
Offsetting adjustments to deferred policy acquisition costs and other balance sheet amounts
700

Estimated pretax impact on accumulated other comprehensive income
(1,087
)
Deferred income tax
381

Noncontrolling interests
12

Estimated after-tax impact on accumulated other comprehensive income
$
(694
)


40
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Approximately 89% of the fixed maturities held by AFG at September 30, 2016, were rated “investment grade” (credit rating of AAA to BBB) by nationally recognized rating agencies. Investment grade securities generally bear lower yields and lower degrees of risk than those that are unrated and non-investment grade. Management believes that the high quality investment portfolio should generate a stable and predictable investment return.

MBS are subject to significant prepayment risk due to the fact that, in periods of declining interest rates, mortgages may be repaid more rapidly than scheduled as borrowers refinance higher rate mortgages to take advantage of lower rates. Although interest rates have been low in recent years, tighter lending standards have resulted in fewer buyers being able to refinance the mortgages underlying much of AFG’s non-agency residential MBS portfolio.

Summarized information for AFG’s MBS (including those classified as trading) at September 30, 2016, is shown in the table below (dollars in millions). Agency-backed securities are those issued by a U.S. government-backed agency; Alt-A mortgages are those with risk profiles between prime and subprime. The average life of the residential and commercial MBS are each approximately 4 years.
 
 
Amortized
Cost
 
Fair Value
 
Fair Value as
% of Cost
 
Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
 
% Rated
Investment
Grade
Collateral type
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Residential:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Agency-backed
 
$
236

 
$
240

 
102
%
 
$
4

 
100
%
Non-agency prime
 
1,475

 
1,637

 
111
%
 
162

 
30
%
Alt-A
 
1,148

 
1,226

 
107
%
 
78

 
12
%
Subprime
 
675

 
717

 
106
%
 
42

 
23
%
Commercial
 
1,763

 
1,848

 
105
%
 
85

 
96
%
 
 
$
5,297

 
$
5,668

 
107
%
 
$
371

 
50
%

The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (“NAIC”) assigns creditworthiness designations on a scale of 1 to 6 with 1 being the highest quality and 6 being the lowest quality. The NAIC retains third-party investment management firms to assist in the determination of appropriate NAIC designations for mortgage-backed securities based not only on the probability of loss (which is the primary basis of ratings by the major ratings firms), but also on the severity of loss and statutory carrying value. At September 30, 2016, 96% (based on statutory carrying value of $5.22 billion) of AFG’s MBS securities had a NAIC designation of 1.
 
Municipal bonds represented approximately 20% of AFG’s fixed maturity portfolio at September 30, 2016. AFG’s municipal bond portfolio is high quality, with 98% of the securities rated investment grade at that date. The portfolio is well diversified across the states of issuance and individual issuers. At September 30, 2016, approximately 75% of the municipal bond portfolio was held in revenue bonds, with the remaining 25% held in general obligation bonds. General obligation securities of California, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, New York and Puerto Rico collectively represented approximately 1% of this portfolio.
 

41
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Summarized information for the unrealized gains and losses recorded in AFG’s Balance Sheet at September 30, 2016, is shown in the following table (dollars in millions). Approximately $375 million of available for sale fixed maturity securities and $57 million of available for sale equity securities had no unrealized gains or losses at September 30, 2016. 
 
Securities
With
Unrealized
Gains
 
Securities
With
Unrealized
Losses
Available for Sale Fixed Maturities
 
 
 
Fair value of securities
$
31,779

 
$
3,240

Amortized cost of securities
$
29,894

 
$
3,317

Gross unrealized gain (loss)
$
1,885

 
$
(77
)
Fair value as % of amortized cost
106
%
 
98
%
Number of security positions
4,678

 
477

Number individually exceeding $2 million gain or loss
131

 
4

Concentration of gains (losses) by type or industry (exceeding 5% of unrealized):
 
 
 
States and municipalities
$
455

 
$
(5
)
Mortgage-backed securities
385

 
(14
)
Manufacturing
202

 
(5
)
Banks, savings and credit institutions
194

 
(4
)
Gas and electric services
97

 
(2
)
Asset-backed securities
70

 
(25
)
Oil and gas extraction
31

 
(11
)
Percentage rated investment grade
90
%
 
74
%
 
 
 
 
Available for Sale Equity Securities
 
 
 
Fair value of securities
$
1,168

 
$
328

Cost of securities
$
977

 
$
358

Gross unrealized gain (loss)
$
191

 
$
(30
)
Fair value as % of cost
120
%
 
92
%
Number of security positions
189

 
46

Number individually exceeding $2 million gain or loss
24

 
5


The table below sets forth the scheduled maturities of AFG’s available for sale fixed maturity securities at September 30, 2016, based on their fair values. Securities with sinking funds are reported at average maturity. Actual maturities may differ from contractual maturities because certain securities may be called or prepaid by the issuers. 
 
Securities
With
Unrealized
Gains
 
Securities
With
Unrealized
Losses
Maturity
 
 
 
One year or less
3
%
 
1
%
After one year through five years
18
%
 
9
%
After five years through ten years
37
%
 
19
%
After ten years
13
%
 
5
%
 
71
%
 
34
%
Asset-backed securities (average life of approximately 5 years)
14
%
 
45
%
Mortgage-backed securities (average life of approximately 4 years)
15
%
 
21
%
 
100
%
 
100
%


42
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


The table below (dollars in millions) summarizes the unrealized gains and losses on fixed maturity securities by dollar amount:
 
 
Aggregate
Fair
Value
 
Aggregate
Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
 
Fair
Value as
% of Cost
Basis
Fixed Maturities at September 30, 2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
Securities with unrealized gains:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Exceeding $500,000 (1,183 securities)
 
$
15,580

 
$
1,343

 
109
%
$500,000 or less (3,495 securities)
 
16,199

 
542

 
103
%
 
 
$
31,779

 
$
1,885

 
106
%
Securities with unrealized losses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Exceeding $500,000 (33 securities)
 
$
500

 
$
(39
)
 
93
%
$500,000 or less (444 securities)
 
2,740

 
(38
)
 
99
%
 
 
$
3,240

 
$
(77
)
 
98
%

The following table (dollars in millions) summarizes the unrealized losses for all securities with unrealized losses by issuer quality and the length of time those securities have been in an unrealized loss position: 
 
 
Aggregate
Fair
Value
 
Aggregate
Unrealized
Loss
 
Fair
Value as
% of Cost
Basis
Securities with Unrealized Losses at September 30, 2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
Investment grade fixed maturities with losses for:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Less than one year (208 securities)
 
$
1,644

 
$
(20
)
 
99
%
One year or longer (111 securities)
 
757

 
(17
)
 
98
%
 
 
$
2,401

 
$
(37
)
 
98
%
Non-investment grade fixed maturities with losses for:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Less than one year (82 securities)
 
$
505

 
$
(10
)
 
98
%
One year or longer (76 securities)
 
334

 
(30
)
 
92
%
 
 
$
839

 
$
(40
)
 
95
%
Common stocks with losses for:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Less than one year (32 securities)
 
$
233

 
$
(27
)
 
90
%
One year or longer (none)
 
—

 
—

 
—
%
 
 
$
233

 
$
(27
)
 
90
%
Perpetual preferred stocks with losses for:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Less than one year (13 securities)
 
$
89

 
$
(2
)
 
98
%
One year or longer (1 security)
 
6

 
(1
)
 
86
%
 
 
$
95

 
$
(3
)
 
97
%

When a decline in the value of a specific investment is considered to be other-than-temporary, a provision for impairment is charged to earnings (accounted for as a realized loss) and the cost basis of that investment is reduced by the amount of the charge. The determination of whether unrealized losses are other-than-temporary requires judgment based on subjective as well as objective factors as detailed in AFG’s 2015 Form 10-K under Management’s Discussion and Analysis — “Investments.”

Based on its analysis, management believes AFG will recover its cost basis in the securities with unrealized losses and that AFG has the ability to hold the securities until they recover in value and had no intent to sell them at September 30, 2016. Although AFG has the ability to continue holding its investments with unrealized losses, its intent to hold them may change due to deterioration in the issuers’ creditworthiness, decisions to lessen exposure to a particular issuer or industry, asset/liability management decisions, market movements, changes in views about appropriate asset allocation or the desire to offset taxable realized gains. Should AFG’s ability or intent change with regard to a particular security, a charge for impairment would likely be required. While it is not possible to accurately predict if or when a specific security will become impaired, charges for other-than-temporary impairment could be material to results of operations in future periods. Significant declines in the fair value of

43
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


AFG’s investment portfolio could have a significant adverse effect on AFG’s liquidity. For information on AFG’s realized gains (losses) on securities, including charges for other-than-temporary impairment, see “Results of Operations — Consolidated Realized Gains (Losses) on Securities.”

Uncertainties   Management believes that the areas posing the greatest risk of material loss are the adequacy of its insurance reserves and contingencies arising out of its former railroad and manufacturing operations. See Management’s Discussion and Analysis — “Uncertainties” in AFG’s 2015 Form 10-K.

MANAGED INVESTMENT ENTITIES

Accounting standards require AFG to consolidate its investments in collateralized loan obligation (“CLO”) entities that it manages and owns an interest in (in the form of debt). See Note A — “Accounting Policies — Managed Investment Entities” and Note H — “Managed Investment Entities” to the financial statements. The effect of consolidating these entities is shown in the tables below (in millions). The “Before CLO Consolidation” columns include AFG’s investment and earnings in the CLOs on an unconsolidated basis.

44
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


CONDENSED CONSOLIDATING BALANCE SHEET
 
Before CLO
Consolidation
 
Managed
Investment
Entities
 
Consol.
Entries
 
 
 
Consolidated
As Reported
September 30, 2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Assets:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and investments
$
42,049

 
$
—

 
$
(244
)
 
(a)
 
$
41,805

Assets of managed investment entities
—

 
4,312

 
—

 
 
 
4,312

Other assets
8,729

 
—

 
(1
)
 
(a)
 
8,728

Total assets
$
50,778

 
$
4,312

 
$
(245
)
 
 
 
$
54,845

Liabilities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses and unearned premiums
$
10,989

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
 
 
$
10,989

Annuity, life, accident and health benefits and reserves
29,922

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
29,922

Liabilities of managed investment entities
—

 
4,297

 
(230
)
 
(a)
 
4,067

Long-term debt and other liabilities
4,509

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
4,509

Total liabilities
45,420

 
4,297

 
(230
)
 
 
 
49,487

Shareholders’ equity:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Common Stock and Capital surplus
1,329

 
15

 
(15
)
 
 
 
1,329

Retained earnings
3,079

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
3,079

Accumulated other comprehensive income, net of tax
753

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
753

Total shareholders’ equity
5,161

 
15

 
(15
)
 
 
 
5,161

Noncontrolling interests
197

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
197

Total equity
5,358

 
15

 
(15
)
 
 
 
5,358

Total liabilities and equity
$
50,778

 
$
4,312

 
$
(245
)
 
 
 
$
54,845

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
December 31, 2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Assets:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and investments
$
38,001

 
$
—

 
$
(265
)
 
(a)
 
$
37,736

Assets of managed investment entities
—

 
4,047

 
—

 
 
 
4,047

Other assets
8,055

 
—

 
(1
)
 
(a)
 
8,054

Total assets
$
46,056

 
$
4,047

 
$
(266
)
 
 
 
$
49,837

Liabilities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses and unearned premiums
$
10,187

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
 
 
$
10,187

Annuity, life, accident and health benefits and reserves
27,327

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
27,327

Liabilities of managed investment entities
—

 
4,027

 
(246
)
 
(a)
 
3,781

Long-term debt and other liabilities
3,772

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
3,772

Total liabilities
41,286

 
4,027

 
(246
)
 
 
 
45,067

Shareholders’ equity:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Common Stock and Capital surplus
1,301

 
20

 
(20
)
 
 
 
1,301

Retained earnings
2,987

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
2,987

Accumulated other comprehensive income, net of tax
304

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
304

Total shareholders’ equity
4,592

 
20

 
(20
)
 
 
 
4,592

Noncontrolling interests
178

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
178

Total equity
4,770

 
20

 
(20
)
 
 
 
4,770

Total liabilities and equity
$
46,056

 
$
4,047

 
$
(266
)
 
 
 
$
49,837

 
(a)
Elimination of the fair value of AFG’s investment in CLOs and related accrued interest.






45
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


CONDENSED CONSOLIDATING STATEMENT OF EARNINGS
 
Before CLO
Consolidation (a)
 
Managed
Investment
Entities
 
Consol.
Entries
 
 
 
Consolidated
As Reported
Three months ended September 30, 2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Insurance net earned premiums
$
1,165

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
 
 
$
1,165

Net investment income
450

 
—

 
(17
)
 
(b)
 
433

Realized gains on securities
2

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
2

Income (loss) of managed investment entities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Investment income
—

 
48

 
—

 
 
 
48

Gain (loss) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities
—

 
—

 
11

 
(b)
 
11

Other income
50

 
—

 
(4
)
 
(c)
 
46

Total revenues
1,667

 
48

 
(10
)
 
 
 
1,705

Costs and Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Insurance benefits and expenses
1,372

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
1,372

Expenses of managed investment entities
—

 
48

 
(10
)
 
(b)(c) 
 
38

Interest charges on borrowed money and other expenses
117

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
117

Total costs and expenses
1,489

 
48

 
(10
)
 
 
 
1,527

Earnings before income taxes
178

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
178

Provision for income taxes
65

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
65

Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests
113

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
113

Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests
4

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
4

Net earnings attributable to shareholders
$
109

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
 
 
$
109

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Three months ended September 30, 2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Insurance net earned premiums
$
1,201

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
 
 
$
1,201

Net investment income
422

 
—

 
3

 
(b)
 
425

Realized gains (losses) on:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Securities
(16
)
 
—

 
—

 
 
 
(16
)
Subsidiaries
5

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
5

Income (loss) of managed investment entities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Investment income
—

 
40

 
—

 
 
 
40

Gain (loss) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities
—

 
(1
)
 
(10
)
 
(b)
 
(11
)
Other income
47

 
—

 
(4
)
 
(c)
 
43

Total revenues
1,659

 
39

 
(11
)
 
 
 
1,687

Costs and Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Insurance benefits and expenses
1,449

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
1,449

Expenses of managed investment entities
—

 
39

 
(11
)
 
(b)(c) 
 
28

Interest charges on borrowed money and other expenses
111

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
111

Total costs and expenses
1,560

 
39

 
(11
)
 
 
 
1,588

Earnings before income taxes
99

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
99

Provision for income taxes
33

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
33

Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests
66

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
66

Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests
3

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
3

Net earnings attributable to shareholders
$
63

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
 
 
$
63


(a)
Includes $17 million and ($3 million) in the third quarter of 2016 and 2015, respectively, representing the change in fair value of AFG’s CLO investments plus $4 million in both the third quarter of 2016 and 2015 in CLO management fees earned.
(b)
Elimination of the change in fair value of AFG’s investments in the CLOs, including $6 million and $7 million in the third quarter of 2016 and 2015, respectively, in distributions recorded as interest expense by the CLOs.
(c)
Elimination of management fees earned by AFG.

46
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


CONDENSED CONSOLIDATING STATEMENT OF EARNINGS
 
Before CLO
Consolidation (a)
 
Managed
Investment
Entities
 
Consol.
Entries
 
 
 
Consolidated
As Reported
Nine months ended September 30, 2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Insurance net earned premiums
$
3,202

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
 
 
$
3,202

Net investment income
1,296

 
—

 
(29
)
 
(b)
 
1,267

Realized gains (losses) on:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Securities
(32
)
 
—

 
—

 
 
 
(32
)
Subsidiaries
2

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
2

Income (loss) of managed investment entities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Investment income
—

 
141

 
—

 
 
 
141

Gain (loss) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities
—

 
2

 
7

 
(b)
 
9

Other income
184

 
—

 
(12
)
 
(c)
 
172

Total revenues
4,652

 
143

 
(34
)
 
 
 
4,761

Costs and Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Insurance benefits and expenses
3,868

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
3,868

Expenses of managed investment entities
—

 
142

 
(33
)
 
(b)(c) 
 
109

Interest charges on borrowed money and other expenses
314

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
314

Total costs and expenses
4,182

 
142

 
(33
)
 
 
 
4,291

Earnings before income taxes
470

 
1

 
(1
)
 
 
 
470

Provision for income taxes
190

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
190

Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests
280

 
1

 
(1
)
 
 
 
280

Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests
16

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
16

Net earnings attributable to shareholders
$
264

 
$
1

 
$
(1
)
 
 
 
$
264

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Nine months ended September 30, 2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Insurance net earned premiums
$
3,184

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
 
 
$
3,184

Net investment income
1,222

 
—

 
(5
)
 
(b)
 
1,217

Realized gains (losses) on:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Securities
2

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
2

Subsidiaries
(157
)
 
—

 
—

 
 
 
(157
)
Income (loss) of managed investment entities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Investment income
—

 
112

 
—

 
 
 
112

Gain (loss) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities
—

 
2

 
(18
)
 
(b)
 
(16
)
Other income
196

 
—

 
(11
)
 
(c)
 
185

Total revenues
4,447

 
114

 
(34
)
 
 
 
4,527

Costs and Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Insurance benefits and expenses
3,784

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
3,784

Expenses of managed investment entities
—

 
112

 
(32
)
 
(b)(c) 
 
80

Interest charges on borrowed money and other expenses
308

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
308

Total costs and expenses
4,092

 
112

 
(32
)
 
 
 
4,172

Earnings before income taxes
355

 
2

 
(2
)
 
 
 
355

Provision for income taxes
115

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
115

Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests
240

 
2

 
(2
)
 
 
 
240

Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests
17

 
—

 
—

 
 
 
17

Net earnings attributable to shareholders
$
223

 
$
2

 
$
(2
)
 
 
 
$
223

(a)
Includes $29 million and $5 million in the first nine months of 2016 and 2015, respectively, representing the change in fair value of AFG’s CLO investments plus $12 million and $11 million in the first nine months of 2016 and 2015, respectively, in CLO management fees earned.
(b)
Elimination of the change in fair value of AFG’s investments in the CLOs, including $21 million in both the first nine months of 2016 and 2015 in distributions recorded as interest expense by the CLOs.
(c)
Elimination of management fees earned by AFG.

47
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

General   AFG’s net earnings attributable to shareholders, determined in accordance with GAAP, include certain items that may not be indicative of its ongoing core operations. For example, core net operating earnings excludes realized gains (losses) on securities because such gains and losses are influenced significantly by financial markets, interest rates and the timing of sales. Similarly, significant gains and losses from the sale of real estate are excluded from core earnings as they are influenced by the timing of sales and realized gains (losses) on subsidiaries are excluded because such gains and losses are largely the result of the changing business strategy and market opportunities. In addition, special charges related to coverage that AFG no longer writes, such as the Neon exited lines and for asbestos and environmental exposures are excluded from core earnings. The following table (in millions, except per share amounts) identifies non-core items and reconciles net earnings attributable to shareholders to core net operating earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure. AFG believes core net operating earnings is a useful tool for investors and analysts in analyzing ongoing operating trends and for management to evaluate financial performance against historical results because it believes this provides a more comparable measure of its continuing business.
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
Nine months ended September 30,
2016
 
2015
 
2016
 
2015
Components of net earnings attributable to shareholders:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Core operating earnings before income taxes
$
217

 
$
193

 
$
574

 
$
542

Pretax non-core items:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) on securities
2

 
(16
)
 
(32
)
 
2

Realized gain (loss) on subsidiaries:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Long-term care business
—

 
—

 
2

 
(162
)
Other
—

 
5

 
—

 
5

Gain on sale of apartment property and hotel
—

 
—

 
32

 
51

Special A&E charges
(41
)
 
(79
)
 
(41
)
 
(79
)
Neon exited lines charge
—

 
—

 
(65
)
 
—

Loss on retirement of debt
—

 
(4
)
 
—

 
(4
)
Earnings before income taxes
178

 
99

 
470

 
355

Provision (credit) for income taxes:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Core operating earnings
79

 
66

 
202

 
180

Non-core items
(14
)
 
(33
)
 
(12
)
 
(65
)
Total provision (credit) for income taxes
65

 
33

 
190

 
115

Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests
113

 
66

 
280

 
240

Less net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Core operating earnings
4

 
4

 
14

 
12

Non-core items
—

 
(1
)
 
2

 
5

Total net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests
4

 
3

 
16

 
17

Net earnings attributable to shareholders
$
109

 
$
63

 
$
264

 
$
223

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earnings:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Core net operating earnings
$
134

 
$
123

 
$
358

 
$
350

Non-core items
(25
)
 
(60
)
 
(94
)
 
(127
)
Net earnings attributable to shareholders
$
109

 
$
63

 
$
264

 
$
223

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Diluted per share amounts:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Core net operating earnings
$
1.51

 
$
1.38

 
$
4.04

 
$
3.92

Realized gains (losses) on securities
0.02

 
(0.10
)
 
(0.21
)
 
0.03

Realized gain (loss) on subsidiaries:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Long-term care business
—

 
—

 
0.01

 
(1.18
)
Other
—

 
0.04

 
—

 
0.04

Gain on sale of apartment property and hotel
—

 
—

 
0.17

 
0.29

Special A&E charges
(0.30
)
 
(0.58
)
 
(0.30
)
 
(0.58
)
Neon exited lines charge
—

 
—

 
(0.73
)
 
—

Loss on retirement of debt
—

 
(0.03
)
 
—

 
(0.03
)
Net earnings attributable to shareholders
$
1.23

 
$
0.71

 
$
2.98

 
$
2.49



48
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Net earnings attributable to shareholders increased $46 million in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015 due primarily to lower special A&E charges recorded in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2015, net realized gains in the 2016 period compared to net realized losses in the 2015 period and higher core net operating earnings. Core net operating earnings increased $11 million in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015 reflecting higher operating earnings in the annuity segment, partially offset by lower profitability in the run-off long-term care and life segment and higher holding company expenses.

Net earnings attributable to shareholders increased $41 million in the first nine months of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015 due primarily to the estimated loss on the sale of the subsidiaries containing substantially all of AFG’s run-off long-term care insurance business that was recorded in the first quarter of 2015, lower special A&E charges recorded in the 2016 period compared to the 2015 period and higher core net operating earnings, partially offset by a charge related to the exit of certain lines of business within Neon, net realized losses on securities in the 2016 period compared to net realized gains on securities in the 2015 period and lower gains on the sale of real estate in the 2016 period compared to the 2015 period. Core net operating earnings increased $8 million in the first nine months of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015 reflecting higher underwriting profit and net investment income in the ongoing property and casualty insurance operations, partially offset by lower profitability in the run-off long-term care and life segment.


49
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


RESULTS OF OPERATIONS — QUARTERS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2016 AND 2015

Segmented Statement of Earnings   AFG reports its business as four segments: (i) Property and casualty insurance (“P&C”), (ii) Annuity, (iii) Run-off long-term care and life and (iv) Other, which includes holding company costs and income and expenses related to the managed investment entities (“MIEs”).

AFG’s net earnings attributable to shareholders, determined in accordance with GAAP, include certain items that may not be indicative of its ongoing core operations. The following tables for the quarters ended September 30, 2016 and 2015 identify such items by segment and reconcile net earnings attributable to shareholders to core net operating earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure that AFG believes is a useful tool for investors and analysts in analyzing ongoing operating trends (in millions):
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
P&C
 
Annuity
 
Run-off long-term care and life
 
Consol. MIEs
 
Holding Co., other and unallocated
 
Total
 
Non-core reclass
 
GAAP Total
Quarter ended September 30, 2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property and casualty insurance net earned premiums
$
1,159

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
1,159

 
$
—

 
$
1,159

Life, accident and health net earned premiums
—

 
—

 
6

 
—

 
—

 
6

 
—

 
6

Net investment income
93

 
351

 
5

 
(17
)
 
1

 
433

 
—

 
433

Realized gains on securities
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
2

 
2

Income (loss) of MIEs:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Investment income
—

 
—

 
—

 
48

 
—

 
48

 
—

 
48

Gain (loss) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities
—

 
—

 
—

 
11

 
—

 
11

 
—

 
11

Other income
3

 
26

 
2

 
(4
)
 
19

 
46

 
—

 
46

Total revenues
1,255

 
377

 
13

 
38

 
20

 
1,703

 
2

 
1,705

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Costs and Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property and casualty insurance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Losses and loss adjustment expenses
729

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
729

 
36

 
765

Commissions and other underwriting expenses
352

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
4

 
356

 
—

 
356

Annuity benefits
—

 
189

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
189

 
—

 
189

Life, accident and health benefits
—

 
—

 
8

 
—

 
—

 
8

 
—

 
8

Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses
—

 
53

 
1

 
—

 
—

 
54

 
—

 
54

Interest charges on borrowed money
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
19

 
19

 
—

 
19

Expenses of MIEs
—

 
—

 
—

 
38

 
—

 
38

 
—

 
38

Other expenses
17

 
28

 
3

 
—

 
45

 
93

 
5

 
98

Total costs and expenses
1,098

 
270

 
12

 
38

 
68

 
1,486

 
41

 
1,527

Earnings before income taxes
157

 
107

 
1

 
—

 
(48
)
 
217

 
(39
)
 
178

Provision for income taxes
59

 
38

 
—

 
—

 
(18
)
 
79

 
(14
)
 
65

Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests
98

 
69

 
1

 
—

 
(30
)
 
138

 
(25
)
 
113

Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests
4

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
4

 
—

 
4

Core Net Operating Earnings
94

 
69

 
1

 
—

 
(30
)
 
134

 
 
 
 
Non-core earnings attributable to shareholders (a):
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains on securities, net of tax and noncontrolling interests
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
1

 
1

 
(1
)
 
—

Special A&E charges, net of tax
(23
)
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(3
)
 
(26
)
 
26

 
—

Net Earnings Attributable to Shareholders
$
71

 
$
69

 
$
1

 
$
—

 
$
(32
)
 
$
109

 
$
—

 
$
109


50
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


 
 
Other
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
P&C
 
Annuity
 
Run-off long-term care and life
 
Consol. MIEs
 
Holding Co., other and unallocated
 
Total
 
Non-core reclass
 
GAAP Total
Quarter ended September 30, 2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property and casualty insurance net earned premiums
$
1,173

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
1,173

 
$
—

 
$
1,173

Life, accident and health net earned premiums
—

 
—

 
28

 
—

 
—

 
28

 
—

 
28

Net investment income
83

 
317

 
20

 
3

 
2

 
425

 
—

 
425

Realized gains (losses) on:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Securities
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(16
)
 
(16
)
Subsidiaries
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
5

 
5

Income (loss) of MIEs:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Investment income
—

 
—

 
—

 
40

 
—

 
40

 
—

 
40

Gain (loss) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities
—

 
—

 
—

 
(11
)
 
—

 
(11
)
 
—

 
(11
)
Other income
2

 
24

 
2

 
(4
)
 
19

 
43

 
—

 
43

Total revenues
1,258

 
341

 
50

 
28

 
21

 
1,698

 
(11
)
 
1,687

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Costs and Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property and casualty insurance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Losses and loss adjustment expenses
758

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
758

 
67

 
825

Commissions and other underwriting expenses
333

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
3

 
336

 
—

 
336

Annuity benefits
—

 
208

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
208

 
—

 
208

Life, accident and health benefits
—

 
—

 
31

 
—

 
—

 
31

 
—

 
31

Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses
—

 
44

 
5

 
—

 
—

 
49

 
—

 
49

Interest charges on borrowed money
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
18

 
18

 
—

 
18

Expenses of MIEs
—

 
—

 
—

 
28

 
—

 
28

 
—

 
28

Other expenses
10

 
22

 
8

 
—

 
37

 
77

 
16

 
93

Total costs and expenses
1,101

 
274

 
44

 
28

 
58

 
1,505

 
83

 
1,588

Earnings before income taxes
157

 
67

 
6

 
—

 
(37
)
 
193

 
(94
)
 
99

Provision for income taxes
54

 
22

 
2

 
—

 
(12
)
 
66

 
(33
)
 
33

Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests
103

 
45

 
4

 
—

 
(25
)
 
127

 
(61
)
 
66

Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests
4

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
4

 
(1
)
 
3

Core Net Operating Earnings
99

 
45

 
4

 
—

 
(25
)
 
123

 
 
 
 
Non-core earnings attributable to shareholders (a):
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized losses on securities, net of tax and noncontrolling interests
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(10
)
 
(10
)
 
10

 
—

Realized gain on subsidiary, net of tax
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
4

 
4

 
(4
)
 
—

Special A&E charges, net of tax
(44
)
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(8
)
 
(52
)
 
52

 
—

Loss on retirement of debt, net of tax
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(2
)
 
(2
)
 
2

 
—

Net Earnings Attributable to Shareholders
$
55

 
$
45

 
$
4

 
$
—

 
$
(41
)
 
$
63

 
$
—

 
$
63


(a)
See the reconciliation of core earnings to GAAP net earnings under “Results of Operations — General” for details on the tax and noncontrolling interest impacts of these reconciling items.

Property and Casualty Insurance Segment — Results of Operations   Performance measures such as underwriting profit or loss and related combined ratios are often used by property and casualty insurers to help users of their financial statements better understand the company’s performance. Underwriting profitability is measured by the combined ratio, which is a sum of the ratios of losses and loss adjustment expenses, and commissions and other underwriting expenses to premiums. A combined ratio under 100% indicates an underwriting profit. The combined ratio does not reflect net investment income, other income, other expenses or federal income taxes.


51
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


AFG’s property and casualty insurance operations contributed $121 million in GAAP pretax earnings in the third quarter of 2016 compared to $90 million in the third quarter of 2015, an increase of $31 million (34%). Property and casualty core pretax earnings were $157 million in both the third quarter of 2016 and 2015. The increase in GAAP pretax earnings reflects lower special A&E charges in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2015. GAAP and core pretax earnings include improved underwriting results in the Property and transportation group and higher net investment income, offset by lower underwriting profit in the Specialty casualty and Specialty financial groups and higher net other expenses.

The following table details AFG’s GAAP and core earnings before income taxes from its property and casualty insurance operations for the three months ended September 30, 2016 and 2015 (dollars in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
% Change
Gross written premiums
$
1,899

 
$
1,962

 
(3
%)
Reinsurance premiums ceded
(631
)
 
(643
)
 
(2
%)
Net written premiums
1,268

 
1,319

 
(4
%)
Change in unearned premiums
(109
)
 
(146
)
 
(25
%)
Net earned premiums
1,159

 
1,173

 
(1
%)
Loss and loss adjustment expenses (*)
729

 
758

 
(4
%)
Commissions and other underwriting expenses
352

 
333

 
6
%
Core underwriting gain
78

 
82

 
(5
%)
 
 
 
 
 


Net investment income
93

 
83

 
12
%
Other income and expenses, net
(14
)
 
(8
)
 
75
%
Core earnings before income taxes
157

 
157

 
—
%
Pretax non-core special A&E charges
(36
)
 
(67
)
 
(46
%)
GAAP earnings before income taxes
$
121

 
$
90

 
34
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
(*)   Excludes pretax non-core special A&E charges of $36 million and $67 million in the third quarter of 2016 and 2015, respectively.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Combined Ratios:
 
 
 
 
 
Specialty lines
 
 
 
 
Change
Loss and LAE ratio
62.9
%
 
64.5
%
 
(1.6
%)
Underwriting expense ratio
30.3
%
 
28.4
%
 
1.9
%
Combined ratio
93.2
%
 
92.9
%
 
0.3
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
Aggregate — including exited lines
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and LAE ratio
66.0
%
 
70.3
%
 
(4.3
%)
Underwriting expense ratio
30.3
%
 
28.4
%
 
1.9
%
Combined ratio
96.3
%
 
98.7
%
 
(2.4
%)

AFG reports the underwriting performance of its Specialty property and casualty insurance business in the following sub-segments: (i) Property and transportation, (ii) Specialty casualty and (iii) Specialty financial.

To understand the overall profitability of particular lines, the timing of claims payments and the related impact of investment income must be considered. Certain “short-tail” lines of business (primarily property coverages) generally have quick loss payouts, which reduce the time funds are held, thereby limiting investment income earned thereon. In contrast, “long-tail” lines of business (primarily liability coverages and workers’ compensation) generally have payouts that are either structured over many years or take many years to settle, thereby significantly increasing investment income earned on related premiums received.


52
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Gross Written Premiums
Gross written premiums (“GWP”) for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment were $1.90 billion for the third quarter of 2016 compared to $1.96 billion for the third quarter of 2015, a decrease of $63 million (3%). Detail of AFG’s property and casualty gross written premiums is shown below (dollars in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
 
 
GWP
 
%
 
GWP
 
%
 
% Change
Property and transportation
$
991

 
52
%
 
$
1,064

 
54
%
 
(7
%)
Specialty casualty
722

 
38
%
 
734

 
37
%
 
(2
%)
Specialty financial
186

 
10
%
 
164

 
9
%
 
13
%
 
$
1,899

 
100
%
 
$
1,962

 
100
%
 
(3
%)

Reinsurance Premiums Ceded
Reinsurance premiums ceded (“Ceded”) for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment were 33% of gross written premiums for both the third quarter of 2016 and 2015. Detail of AFG’s property and casualty reinsurance premiums ceded is shown below (dollars in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
Change in
 
Ceded
 
% of GWP
 
Ceded
 
% of GWP
 
% of GWP
Property and transportation
$
(406
)
 
41
%
 
$
(456
)
 
43
%
 
(2
%)
Specialty casualty
(218
)
 
30
%
 
(189
)
 
26
%
 
4
%
Specialty financial
(37
)
 
20
%
 
(27
)
 
16
%
 
4
%
Other specialty
30

 
 
 
29

 
 
 
 
 
$
(631
)
 
33
%
 
$
(643
)
 
33
%
 
—
%

Net Written Premiums
Net written premiums (“NWP”) for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment were $1.27 billion for the third quarter of 2016 compared to $1.32 billion for the third quarter of 2015, a decrease of $51 million (4%). Detail of AFG’s property and casualty net written premiums is shown below (dollars in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
 
 
NWP
 
%
 
NWP
 
%
 
% Change
Property and transportation
$
585

 
46
%
 
$
608

 
46
%
 
(4
%)
Specialty casualty
504

 
40
%
 
545

 
41
%
 
(8
%)
Specialty financial
149

 
12
%
 
137

 
10
%
 
9
%
Other specialty
30

 
2
%
 
29

 
3
%
 
3
%
 
$
1,268

 
100
%
 
$
1,319

 
100
%
 
(4
%)


53
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Net Earned Premiums
Net earned premiums (“NEP”) for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment were $1.16 billion for the third quarter of 2016 compared to $1.17 billion for the third quarter of 2015, a decrease of $14 million (1%). Detail of AFG’s property and casualty net earned premiums is shown below (dollars in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
 
 
NEP
 
%
 
NEP
 
%
 
% Change
Property and transportation
$
493

 
43
%
 
$
517

 
44
%
 
(5
%)
Specialty casualty
497

 
43
%
 
503

 
43
%
 
(1
%)
Specialty financial
145

 
12
%
 
131

 
11
%
 
11
%
Other specialty
24

 
2
%
 
22

 
2
%
 
9
%
 
$
1,159

 
100
%
 
$
1,173

 
100
%
 
(1
%)

The $63 million (3%) decrease in gross written premiums for the third quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2015 reflects a decrease in the Property and transportation and Specialty casualty sub-segments, partially offset by growth in the Specialty financial sub-segment. Overall average renewal rates increased approximately 1% in the third quarter of 2016.

Property and transportation Gross written premiums decreased $73 million (7%) in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2015. This decrease was due primarily to lower year-over-year gross premiums in the crop businesses, primarily the result of lower spring commodity pricing and timing differences in the recording of crop premiums. Excluding crop, gross written premiums were comparable to the prior year period. Average renewal rates increased approximately 4% for this group in the third quarter of 2016, including a 6% increase in National Interstate’s renewal rates. Reinsurance premiums ceded as a percentage of gross written premiums decreased 2 percentage points for the third quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2015, reflecting lower cessions in the crop business.

Specialty casualty Gross written premiums decreased $12 million (2%) in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2015. Higher gross written premiums in the workers’ compensation businesses were more than offset by Neon’s exit of certain lines of business and implementation of more stringent underwriting standards at Neon. Average renewal rates decreased approximately 1% for this group in the third quarter of 2016, including a decrease of approximately 4% in the workers’ compensation businesses. Excluding the workers’ compensation business, average renewal rates for this group increased approximately 1% during the quarter. Reinsurance premiums ceded as a percentage of gross written premiums increased 4 percentage points for the third quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2015, reflecting a change in the mix of business and the timing of reinsurance agreements at Neon.

Specialty financial Gross written premiums increased $22 million (13%) in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2015 due primarily to growth in the financial institutions business. Average renewal rates for this group were flat in the third quarter of 2016. Reinsurance premiums ceded as a percentage of gross written premiums increased 4 percentage points for the third quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2015, reflecting higher cessions in the financial institutions business.

Other specialty The amounts shown as reinsurance premiums ceded represent business assumed by AFG’s internal reinsurance program from the operations that make up AFG’s other Specialty property and casualty insurance sub-segments.


54
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Combined Ratio
The table below (dollars in millions) details the components of the combined ratio for AFG’s property and casualty segment:
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
 
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
 
Change
 
2016
 
2015
Property and transportation
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and LAE ratio
68.8
%
 
75.7
%
 
(6.9
%)
 
 
 
 
Underwriting expense ratio
22.3
%
 
20.5
%
 
1.8
%
 
 
 
 
Combined ratio
91.1
%
 
96.2
%
 
(5.1
%)
 
 
 
 
Underwriting profit
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
44

 
$
20

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Specialty casualty
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and LAE ratio
66.5
%
 
64.2
%
 
2.3
%
 
 
 
 
Underwriting expense ratio
30.9
%
 
29.6
%
 
1.3
%
 
 
 
 
Combined ratio
97.4
%
 
93.8
%
 
3.6
%
 
 
 
 
Underwriting profit
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
13

 
$
31

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Specialty financial
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and LAE ratio
31.6
%
 
27.7
%
 
3.9
%
 
 
 
 
Underwriting expense ratio
54.8
%
 
52.9
%
 
1.9
%
 
 
 
 
Combined ratio
86.4
%
 
80.6
%
 
5.8
%
 
 
 
 
Underwriting profit
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
19

 
$
26

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total Specialty
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and LAE ratio
62.9
%
 
64.5
%
 
(1.6
%)
 
 
 
 
Underwriting expense ratio
30.3
%
 
28.4
%
 
1.9
%
 
 
 
 
Combined ratio
93.2
%
 
92.9
%
 
0.3
%
 
 
 
 
Underwriting profit
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
78

 
$
84

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Aggregate — including exited lines
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and LAE ratio
66.0
%
 
70.3
%
 
(4.3
%)
 
 
 
 
Underwriting expense ratio
30.3
%
 
28.4
%
 
1.9
%
 
 
 
 
Combined ratio
96.3
%
 
98.7
%
 
(2.4
%)
 
 
 
 
Underwriting profit
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
42

 
$
15


The Specialty property and casualty insurance operations generated an underwriting profit of $78 million in the third quarter of 2016 compared to $84 million in the third quarter of 2015, a decrease of $6 million (7%). The lower underwriting profit in the third quarter of 2016 reflects lower underwriting profits in the Specialty casualty and Specialty financial sub-segments, partially offset by improved underwriting results in the Property and transportation sub-segment.

Property and transportation Underwriting profit for this group was $44 million for the third quarter of 2016 compared to $20 million in the third quarter of 2015, an increase of $24 million (120%). Higher underwriting profits in the crop, transportation and property and inland marine businesses contributed to these improved results.

Specialty casualty Underwriting profit for this group was $13 million for the third quarter of 2016 compared to $31 million in the third quarter of 2015, a decrease of $18 million (58%). Higher underwriting profitability in the workers’ compensation businesses, due primarily to higher favorable prior year reserve development, was more than offset by higher adverse prior year reserve development in the excess and surplus lines businesses, lower underwriting profitability in the targeted markets businesses and continued underwriting losses at Neon.

Specialty financial Underwriting profit for this group was $19 million for the third quarter of 2016 compared to $26 million in the third quarter of 2015, a decrease of $7 million (27%) reflecting lower underwriting profit in the financial institutions business, primarily the result of August storms and flooding in Louisiana.

Other specialty Underwriting profit for this group was $2 million for the third quarter of 2016 compared to $7 million in the third quarter of 2015, a decrease of $5 million (71%). The decrease is due primarily to lower favorable prior year loss

55
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


development in the business assumed by AFG’s internal reinsurance program from the operations that make up AFG’s other Specialty sub-segments.

Aggregate As discussed below in more detail under “Net prior year reserve development,” AFG recorded special charges to increase property and casualty A&E reserves by $36 million in the third quarter of 2016 and $67 million in the third quarter of 2015.

Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses
AFG’s overall loss and LAE ratio was 66.0% for the third quarter of 2016 compared to 70.3% for the third quarter of 2015, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points. The components of AFG’s property and casualty losses and LAE amounts and ratio are detailed below (dollars in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
 
 
Amount
 
Ratio
 
Change in
 
2016
 
2015
 
2016
 
2015
 
Ratio
Property and transportation
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses
$
337

 
$
386

 
68.4
%
 
74.6
%
 
(6.2
%)
Prior accident years development
(5
)
 
(2
)
 
(1.2
%)
 
(0.4
%)
 
(0.8
%)
Current year catastrophe losses
7

 
7

 
1.6
%
 
1.5
%
 
0.1
%
Property and transportation losses and LAE and ratio
$
339

 
$
391

 
68.8
%
 
75.7
%
 
(6.9
%)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Specialty casualty
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses
$
330

 
$
319

 
66.5
%
 
63.3
%
 
3.2
%
Prior accident years development
(2
)
 
3

 
(0.3
%)
 
0.6
%
 
(0.9
%)
Current year catastrophe losses
2

 
1

 
0.3
%
 
0.3
%
 
—
%
Specialty casualty losses and LAE and ratio
$
330

 
$
323

 
66.5
%
 
64.2
%
 
2.3
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Specialty financial
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses
$
46

 
$
43

 
32.2
%
 
32.9
%
 
(0.7
%)
Prior accident years development
(6
)
 
(8
)
 
(3.9
%)
 
(5.8
%)
 
1.9
%
Current year catastrophe losses
5

 
1

 
3.3
%
 
0.6
%
 
2.7
%
Specialty financial losses and LAE and ratio
$
45

 
$
36

 
31.6
%
 
27.7
%
 
3.9
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total Specialty
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses
$
729

 
$
760

 
62.8
%
 
64.8
%
 
(2.0
%)
Prior accident years development
(14
)
 
(14
)
 
(1.1
%)
 
(1.2
%)
 
0.1
%
Current year catastrophe losses
14

 
10

 
1.2
%
 
0.9
%
 
0.3
%
Total Specialty losses and LAE and ratio
$
729

 
$
756

 
62.9
%
 
64.5
%
 
(1.6
%)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Aggregate — including exited lines
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses
$
729

 
$
760

 
62.8
%
 
64.8
%
 
(2.0
%)
Prior accident years development
22

 
55

 
2.0
%
 
4.6
%
 
(2.6
%)
Current year catastrophe losses
14

 
10

 
1.2
%
 
0.9
%
 
0.3
%
Aggregate losses and LAE and ratio
$
765

 
$
825

 
66.0
%
 
70.3
%
 
(4.3
%)

Current accident year losses and LAE, excluding catastrophe losses
The current accident year loss and LAE ratio, excluding catastrophe losses for AFG’s Specialty property and casualty insurance operations was 62.8% for the third quarter of 2016 compared to 64.8% for the third quarter of 2015, a decrease of 2.0%.

Property and transportation   The 6.2 percentage point decrease in the loss and LAE ratio for the current year, excluding catastrophe losses reflects a decrease in the loss and LAE ratios of the crop and transportation businesses in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2015.

56
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued



Specialty casualty   The 3.2 percentage point increase in the loss and LAE ratio for the current year, excluding catastrophe losses reflects an increase in the loss and LAE ratios of the targeted markets, general liability and executive liability businesses and at Neon.

Specialty financial The loss and LAE ratios for the current year, excluding catastrophe losses are comparable between periods.

Net prior year reserve development
AFG’s Specialty property and casualty insurance operations recorded net favorable reserve development related to prior accident years of $14 million in both the third quarter of 2016 and 2015.

Property and transportation Net favorable reserve development of $5 million in the third quarter of 2016 reflects lower than expected claim severity in the trucking business. Net favorable reserve development of $2 million in the third quarter of 2015 reflects lower than expected claim severity in the property and inland marine business, agricultural operations and a run-off book of homebuilders business, partially offset by higher than anticipated claim frequency in the ocean marine business and higher than expected claim frequency and severity in the trucking business.

Specialty casualty Net favorable reserve development of $2 million in the third quarter of 2016 reflects lower than anticipated claim severity and frequency in the workers’ compensation businesses and lower than anticipated claim severity in directors and officers liability insurance, partially offset by higher than anticipated severity in New York contractor claims, adverse reserve development at Neon and higher than anticipated claim severity in general liability insurance. Net adverse reserve development of $3 million in the third quarter of 2015 includes adverse reserve development at Neon and higher than anticipated claim severity and frequency in contractor claims, partially offset by lower than anticipated claim severity in workers’ compensation business, lower than expected claim severity in directors and officers liability insurance and lower than anticipated claim severity and frequency in excess liability insurance.

Specialty financial Net favorable reserve development of $6 million in the third quarter of 2016 reflects lower than anticipated claim severity in the fidelity and crime business and lower than expected claim frequency and severity in the surety business. Net favorable reserve development of $8 million in the third quarter of 2015 reflects lower than anticipated claim severity in the fidelity business, lower than expected claim frequency and severity in the surety business and lower than expected claim frequency in products for financial institutions, partially offset by higher than anticipated claim severity in the trade credit business.

Other specialty In addition to the development discussed above, total Specialty prior year reserve development includes net favorable reserve development of $1 million in the third quarter of 2016 and $7 million in the third quarter of 2015 reflecting amortization of the deferred gain on the retroactive insurance transaction entered into in connection with the sale of businesses in 1998 and 2001 and reserve development associated with AFG’s internal reinsurance program.

Special asbestos and environmental reserve charges   During the third quarter of 2016, AFG completed an in-depth internal review of its asbestos and environmental exposures relating to the run-off operations of its property and casualty insurance segment and its exposures related to former railroad and manufacturing operations and sites. AFG has periodically conducted comprehensive external studies of its asbestos and environmental reserves with the aid of specialty actuarial, engineering and consulting firms and outside counsel, generally every two years, with an in-depth internal review during the intervening years.
As a result of the 2016 internal review, AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment recorded a $36 million pretax special charge to increase its asbestos reserves by $5 million (net of reinsurance) and its environmental reserves by $31 million (net of reinsurance). Over the past few years, the focus of AFG’s asbestos claims litigation has shifted to smaller companies and companies with ancillary exposures. AFG’s insureds with these exposures have been the driver of the property and casualty segment’s asbestos reserve increases in recent years. AFG is seeing modestly increasing estimates for indemnity and defense compared to prior studies. Overall, the rate of new asbestos cases received is down modestly. The increase in property and casualty environmental reserves was primarily associated with updated estimates of site investigation costs with respect to existing sites and newly identified sites. AFG is seeing increased legal defense costs in environmental claims generally, as well as a number of claims and sites where the estimated investigation and remediation costs have increased. As in past years, there were no new or emerging broad industry trends that were identified in the review.


57
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


At September 30, 2016, the property and casualty insurance segment’s insurance reserves include A&E reserves of $340 million, net of reinsurance recoverables. At September 30, 2016, the property and casualty insurance segment’s three-year survival ratios, excluding amounts associated with the settlements of two large asbestos claims compare favorably with industry survival ratios published by S&P Global Market Intelligence (as of December 31, 2015) as detailed in the following table:
 
Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves
 
Three-Year Survival Ratio (% Times Paid Losses)
 
Asbestos
 
Environmental
 
Total A&E
AFG
12.4

 
9.2

 
10.8

Industry
7.5

 
6.3

 
7.3


In addition, the 2016 internal review encompassed reserves for asbestos and environmental exposures of AFG’s former railroad and manufacturing operations. For a discussion of the $5 million pretax special charge recorded for those operations, see “Results of Operations — Holding Company, Other and Unallocated.”

A comprehensive external study of AFG’s A&E reserves was completed in the third quarter of 2015 with the aid of specialty actuarial, engineering and consulting firms and outside counsel. As a result of the study, AFG recorded a $79 million pretax special charge to increase its property and casualty segment’s A&E reserves by $67 million and the reserves of its former railroad and manufacturing operations by $12 million. See Management’s Discussion and Analysis — “Uncertainties — Asbestos and Environmental-related (“A&E”) Insurance Reserves” and Management’s Discussion and Analysis — “Results of Operations — Holding Company, Other and Unallocated” in AFG’s 2015 Form 10-K.

Aggregate Aggregate net prior accident years reserve development for AFG’s property and casualty segment includes the special A&E charges discussed above and adverse reserve development of $2 million in the third quarter of 2015 related to business outside of the Specialty group that AFG no longer writes.

Catastrophe losses
AFG generally seeks to reduce its exposure to catastrophes through individual risk selection, including minimizing coastal and known fault-line exposures, and the purchase of reinsurance. Based on data available at December 31, 2015, AFG’s exposure to a catastrophic earthquake or windstorm that industry models indicate could occur once in every 500 years (a “500-year event”) is expected to be less than 3.5% of AFG’s shareholders’ equity. Catastrophe losses of $14 million in the third quarter of 2016 resulted primarily from flooding in Louisiana and multiple storms in the southern United States. Catastrophe losses of $10 million in the third quarter of 2015 resulted primarily from multiple storms in the midwestern and central United States. The net impact of catastrophe losses from Hurricane Matthew, which made landfall in the United States in the fourth quarter of 2016, is expected to be $10 million to $15 million pretax for AFG’s property and casualty insurance operations.

Commissions and Other Underwriting Expenses
AFG’s property and casualty commissions and other underwriting expenses (“U/W Exp”) were $352 million in the third quarter of 2016 compared to $333 million for the third quarter of 2015, an increase of $19 million (6%). AFG’s underwriting expense ratio, calculated as commissions and other underwriting expenses divided by net premiums earned, was 30.3% for the third quarter of 2016 compared to 28.4% for the third quarter of 2015, an increase of 1.9 percentage points. Detail of AFG’s property and casualty commissions and other underwriting expenses and underwriting expense ratios is shown below (dollars in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
Change in
 
U/W Exp
 
% of NEP
 
U/W Exp
 
% of NEP
 
% of NEP
Property and transportation
$
110

 
22.3
%
 
$
106

 
20.5
%
 
1.8
%
Specialty casualty
154

 
30.9
%
 
149

 
29.6
%
 
1.3
%
Specialty financial
81

 
54.8
%
 
69

 
52.9
%
 
1.9
%
Other specialty
7

 
36.3
%
 
9

 
37.9
%
 
(1.6
%)
 
$
352

 
30.3
%
 
$
333

 
28.4
%
 
1.9
%

AFG’s overall expense ratio increased 1.9% in the third quarter of 2016 as compared to the third quarter of 2015.


58
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Property and transportation   Commissions and other underwriting expenses as a percentage of net earned premiums increased 1.8 percentage points in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2015 reflecting the impact of lower crop premiums on the ratio.

Specialty casualty   Commissions and other underwriting expenses as a percentage of net earned premiums increased 1.3 percentage points in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2015 reflecting the impact of lower premiums at Neon on the ratio.

Specialty financial   Commissions and other underwriting expenses as a percentage of net earned premiums increased 1.9 percentage points in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2015 reflecting higher profitability-based commissions paid to agents and brokers, partially offset by an increase in ceding commissions received from reinsurers.

Property and Casualty Net Investment Income
Net investment income in AFG’s property and casualty operations was $93 million in the third quarter of 2016 compared to $83 million in the third quarter of 2015, an increase of $10 million (12%). In recent years, yields available in the financial markets on fixed maturity securities have generally declined, placing downward pressure on AFG’s investment portfolio yield. The average invested assets and overall yield earned on investments held by AFG’s property and casualty operations are provided below (dollars in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
 
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
Change
 
% Change
Net investment income
$
93

 
$
83

 
$
10

 
12
%
 
 
 
 
 


 
 
Average invested assets (at amortized cost)
$
9,647

 
$
8,984

 
$
663

 
7
%
 
 
 
 
 


 
 
Yield (net investment income as a % of average invested assets)
3.86
%
 
3.70
%
 
0.16
%
 


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax equivalent yield (*)
4.34
%
 
4.28
%
 
0.06
%
 
 
(*)   Adjusts the yield on equity securities and tax-exempt bonds to the fully taxable equivalent yield.

The increase in average invested assets and net investment income in the property and casualty segment for the third quarter of 2016 as compared to the third quarter of 2015 is due primarily to growth in the property and casualty segment. The property and casualty segment’s overall yield on investments (net investment income as a percentage of average invested assets) was 3.86% for the third quarter of 2016 compared to 3.70% for the third quarter of 2015, an increase of 0.16 percentage points, reflecting higher income from certain investments that are required to be carried at fair value through earnings, partially offset by lower yields available in the financial markets.

Property and Casualty Other Income and Expenses, Net
Other income and expenses, net for AFG’s property and casualty operations was a net expense of $14 million for the third quarter of 2016 compared to $8 million in the third quarter of 2015, an increase of $6 million (75%). The table below details the items included in other income and expenses, net for AFG’s property and casualty operations (in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
Other income
$
3

 
$
2

Other expenses
 
 
 
Amortization of intangibles
2

 
2

NATL merger expenses
2

 
—

Other
13

 
8

Total other expenses
17

 
10

Interest expense
—

 
—

Other income and expenses, net
$
(14
)
 
$
(8
)


59
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Annuity Segment — Results of Operations
AFG’s annuity operations contributed $107 million in pretax earnings in the third quarter of 2016 compared to $67 million in the third quarter of 2015, an increase of $40 million (60%). AFG’s annuity segment results for the third quarter of 2016 as compared to the third quarter of 2015 reflect higher investment income from certain investments that are required to be carried at fair value through earnings and an 11% increase in average annuity investments (at amortized cost). In addition, the annuity segment’s earnings in the third quarter of 2016 benefitted from the impact of a moderately higher stock market on the fair value accounting for fixed-indexed annuities (“FIAs”) compared to the negative impact of a significant drop in the stock market in the third quarter of 2015. These improved results were partially offset by the impact of lower investment yields due to the run-off of higher yielding investments.

The following table details AFG’s earnings before income taxes from its annuity operations for the three months ended September 30, 2016 and 2015 (dollars in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
% Change
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
Net investment income
$
351

 
$
317

 
11
%
Other income:
 
 
 
 
 
Guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees
14

 
11

 
27
%
Policy charges and other miscellaneous income
12

 
13

 
(8
%)
Total revenues
377

 
341

 
11
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
Costs and Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
Annuity benefits (*)
189

 
208

 
(9
%)
Acquisition expenses
53

 
44

 
20
%
Other expenses
28

 
22

 
27
%
Total costs and expenses
270

 
274

 
(1
%)
Earnings before income taxes
$
107

 
$
67

 
60
%

Detail of annuity earnings before income taxes (dollars in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
% Change
Earnings before income taxes — before the impact of derivatives related to FIAs
$
106

 
$
89

 
19
%
Impact of derivatives related to FIAs
1

 
(22
)
 
(105
%)
Earnings before income taxes
$
107

 
$
67

 
60
%


60
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


(*)
Annuity benefits consisted of the following (dollars in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
% Change
Interest credited — fixed
$
145

 
$
135

 
7
%
Interest credited — fixed component of variable annuities
1

 
2

 
(50
%)
Other annuity benefits:
 
 
 
 
 
Change in expected death and annuitization reserve
5

 
5

 
—
%
Amortization of sales inducements
6

 
6

 
—
%
Change in guaranteed withdrawal benefit reserve
18

 
20

 
(10
%)
Change in other benefit reserves
10

 
3

 
233
%
Total other annuity benefits
39

 
34

 
15
%
Total before impact of derivatives related to FIAs
185

 
171

 
8
%
Derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities:
 
 
 
 
 
Embedded derivative mark-to-market
109

 
(130
)
 
(184
%)
Equity option mark-to-market
(105
)
 
167

 
(163
%)
Impact of derivatives related to FIAs
4

 
37

 
(89
%)
Total annuity benefits
$
189

 
$
208

 
(9
%)

The profitability of a fixed annuity business is largely dependent on the ability of a company to earn income on the assets supporting the business in excess of the amounts credited to policyholder accounts plus expenses incurred (earning a “spread”). Performance measures such as net interest spread and net spread earned are often presented by annuity businesses to help users of their financial statements better understand the company’s performance.

Net Spread on Fixed Annuities (excludes variable annuity earnings)
The table below (dollars in millions) details the components of these spreads for AFG’s fixed annuity operations (including fixed-indexed annuities):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
% Change
Average fixed annuity investments (at amortized cost)
$
28,548

 
$
25,642

 
11
%
Average fixed annuity benefits accumulated
28,538

 
25,316

 
13
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
As % of fixed annuity benefits accumulated (except as noted):


 


 
 
Net investment income (as % of fixed annuity investments)
4.88
%
 
4.92
%
 
 
Interest credited — fixed
(2.03
%)
 
(2.12
%)
 
 
Net interest spread
2.85
%
 
2.80
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Policy charges and other miscellaneous income
0.14
%
 
0.16
%
 
 
Other annuity benefit expenses, net of guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees
(0.36
%)
 
(0.36
%)
 
 
Acquisition expenses
(0.72
%)
 
(0.65
%)
 
 
Other expenses
(0.39
%)
 
(0.34
%)
 
 
Change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities
(0.05
%)
 
(0.59
%)
 
 
Net spread earned on fixed annuities
1.47
%
 
1.02
%
 
 


61
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


The table below illustrates the impact of fair value accounting for derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities on the annuity segment’s net spread earned on fixed annuities:
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
Net spread earned on fixed annuities — before impact of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities
1.46
%
 
1.37
%
Impact of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities (*)
0.01
%
 
(0.35
%)
Net spread earned on fixed annuities
1.47
%
 
1.02
%

(*)
Change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities offset by an estimate of the related acceleration/deceleration of amortization of deferred sales inducements and deferred policy acquisition costs.

Annuity Net Investment Income
Net investment income for the third quarter of 2016 was $351 million compared to $317 million for the third quarter of 2015, an increase of $34 million (11%). This increase reflects primarily the growth in AFG’s annuity business and higher income from certain investments that are required to be carried at fair value through earnings, partially offset by the impact of lower investment yields. The overall yield earned on investments in AFG’s annuity operations, calculated as net investment income divided by average investment balances (at amortized cost), decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 4.88% from 4.92% in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2015. This decline in net investment yield reflects (i) the investment of new premium dollars at lower yields as compared to the existing investment portfolio and (ii) the impact of the reinvestment of proceeds from maturity and redemption of higher yielding investments at the lower yields available in the financial markets, partially offset by the higher income from certain investments that are required to be carried at fair value through earnings.

Annuity Interest Credited — Fixed
Interest credited — fixed for the third quarter of 2016 was $145 million compared to $135 million for the third quarter of 2015, an increase of $10 million (7%). The impact of growth in the annuity business was partially offset by lower interest crediting rates on new premiums as compared to the crediting rates on policyholder funds surrendered or withdrawn. The average interest rate credited to policyholders, calculated as interest credited divided by average fixed annuity benefits accumulated, decreased 0.09 percentage points to 2.03% from 2.12% in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2015.

Annuity Net Interest Spread
AFG’s net interest spread increased 0.05 percentage points to 2.85% from 2.80% in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015 due primarily to the impact of lower crediting rates and higher income from certain investments that are required to be carried at fair value through earnings, partially offset by lower in-force investment yields. In addition, features included in current annuity product offerings allow AFG to achieve its desired profitability at a lower net interest spread than historical product offerings. As a result of these two items, AFG expects its net interest spread to narrow in the future.

Annuity Policy Charges and Other Miscellaneous Income
Annuity policy charges and other miscellaneous income, which consist primarily of surrender charges, amortization of deferred upfront policy charges (unearned revenue) and income from sales of real estate, were $12 million for the third quarter of 2016 compared to $13 million for the third quarter of 2015, a decrease of $1 million (8%). As a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated, annuity policy charges and other miscellaneous income decreased 0.02 percentage points to 0.14% from 0.16% in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2015.


62
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Other Annuity Benefits, Net of Guaranteed Withdrawal Benefit Fees
Other annuity benefits, net of guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees, for the third quarter of 2016 were $25 million compared to $23 million for the third quarter of 2015, an increase of $2 million (9%). As a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated, these net expenses were 0.36 percentage points in both the third quarter of 2016 and 2015. In addition to interest credited to policyholders’ accounts and the change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities, annuity benefits expense also includes the following expenses (in millions, net of guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
Change in expected death and annuitization reserve
$
5

 
$
5

Amortization of sales inducements
6

 
6

Change in guaranteed withdrawal benefit reserve
18

 
20

Change in other benefit reserves
10

 
3

Other annuity benefits
39

 
34

Offset guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees
(14
)
 
(11
)
Other annuity benefits, net
$
25

 
$
23


As discussed under “Annuity Benefits Accumulated” in Note A — “Accounting Policies”, guaranteed withdrawal benefit reserves are accrued for and modified using assumptions similar to those used in establishing and amortizing deferred policy acquisition costs. The guaranteed withdrawal benefit reserve related to FIAs can be inversely impacted by the calculated FIA embedded derivative reserve as the value to policyholders of the guaranteed withdrawal benefits decreases when the benefit of stock market participation increases.

Annuity Acquisition Expenses
AFG’s amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs (“DPAC”) and commission expenses as a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated was 0.72% for the third quarter of 2016 compared to 0.65% for the third quarter 2015 and has generally ranged between 0.75% and 0.85%. Variances from the general range relate primarily to the impact of (i) material changes in interest rates or the stock market on AFG’s fixed-indexed annuity business, and (ii) differences in actual experience from actuarially projected estimates and assumptions. For example, the negative impact of the significant stock market decrease during the third quarter of 2015 on the fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities (discussed below) resulted in a partially offsetting deceleration in the amortization of DPAC.

The table below illustrates the estimated impact of fair value accounting for derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities on annuity acquisition expenses as a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated:
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
Before the impact of changes in the fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities on the amortization of DPAC
0.78
%
 
0.88
%
Impact of changes in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities on amortization of DPAC (*)
(0.06
%)
 
(0.23
%)
Annuity acquisition expenses as a % of fixed annuity benefits accumulated
0.72
%
 
0.65
%
(*)
An estimate of the acceleration/deceleration in the amortization of deferred sales inducement and deferred policy acquisition costs resulting from fair value accounting for derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities.

Annuity Other Expenses
Annuity other expenses were $28 million for the third quarter of 2016 compared to $22 million for the third quarter of 2015, an increase of $6 million (27%). Annuity other expenses represent primarily general and administrative expenses, as well as selling and issuance expenses that are not deferred. The increase in annuity other expenses reflects primarily growth in the business and an increase in the number of sales personnel focused on new initiatives and increased market share within existing financial institutions in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2015. As a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated, these expenses increased 0.05 percentage points to 0.39% from 0.34% for the third quarter of 2016 as compared to the third quarter of 2015.


63
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Change in Fair Value of Derivatives Related to Fixed-Indexed Annuities
AFG’s fixed-indexed annuities provide policyholders with a crediting rate tied, in part, to the performance of an existing stock market index. AFG attempts to mitigate the risk in the index-based component of these products through the purchase of call options on the appropriate index. AFG’s strategy is designed so that the change in the fair value of the call option assets will generally offset the economic change in the liabilities from the index participation. Both the index-based component of the annuities and the related call options are considered derivatives that must be adjusted for changes in fair value through earnings each period. The fair values of these derivatives are impacted by actual and expected stock market performance and interest rates as well as other factors. For a list of other factors impacting the fair value of the index-based component of AFG’s annuity benefits accumulated, see Note D — “Fair Value Measurements” to the financial statements. The net change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities increased annuity benefits by $4 million and $37 million in the third quarter of 2016 and 2015, respectively. While slightly lower than anticipated interest rates had a negative impact on the fair value of these derivatives in both periods, a moderate increase in the stock market had a favorable impact on the fair value of these derivatives in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the negative impact on fair value that a significant drop in the stock market had in the third quarter of 2015. As a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated, this net expense decreased 0.54 percentage points to 0.05% in the third quarter of 2016 from 0.59% in the third quarter of 2015.

Fluctuations in interest rates and the stock market, among other factors, can cause volatility in the periodic measurement of fair value of the embedded derivative that management believes can be inconsistent with the long-term economics of these products. The table below illustrates the impact of fair value accounting for derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities on the annuity segment’s earnings before income taxes (dollars in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
% Change
Earnings before income taxes — before change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities
$
106

 
$
89

 
19
%
Change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities
(4
)
 
(37
)
 
(89
%)
Related impact on amortization of DPAC (*)
5

 
15

 
(67
%)
Earnings before income taxes
$
107

 
$
67

 
60
%

(*)
An estimate of the related acceleration/deceleration of amortization of deferred sales inducements and deferred policy acquisition costs.

As illustrated in the table above, the change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities, including the related impact on amortization of DPAC, increased the annuity segment’s earnings before income taxes by $1 million in the third quarter of 2016 and decreased the annuity segment’s earnings before income taxes by $22 million in the third quarter of 2015.

Annuity Net Spread Earned on Fixed Annuities
AFG’s net spread earned on fixed annuities increased 0.45 percentage points to 1.47% from 1.02% in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015 due primarily to the net impact of changes in the fair value of derivatives and related DPAC amortization offset discussed above and the 0.05 percentage points increase in AFG’s net interest spread.

Annuity Benefits Accumulated
Annuity premiums received and benefit payments are recorded as increases or decreases in annuity benefits accumulated rather than as revenue and expense. Increases in this liability for interest credited and other benefits are charged to expense and decreases for surrender and other policy charges are credited to other income.


64
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


For certain products, annuity benefits accumulated also includes reserves for accrued persistency and premium bonuses, excess benefits expected to be paid on future deaths and annuitizations (“EDAR”) and guaranteed withdrawal benefits. Annuity benefits accumulated also includes amounts advanced from the Federal Home Loan Bank of Cincinnati. The following table is a progression of AFG’s annuity benefits accumulated liability for the three months ended September 30, 2016 and 2015 (in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
Beginning fixed annuity reserves
$
28,222

 
$
24,906

Fixed annuity premiums (receipts)
932

 
1,311

Federal Home Loan Bank advances
—

 
—

Surrenders, benefits and other withdrawals
(586
)
 
(526
)
Interest and other annuity benefit expenses:
 
 
 
Interest credited
145

 
135

Embedded derivative mark-to-market
109

 
(130
)
Change in other benefit reserves
31

 
29

Ending fixed annuity reserves
$
28,853

 
$
25,725

 
 
 
 
Reconciliation to annuity benefits accumulated per balance sheet:
 
 
 
Ending fixed annuity reserves (from above)
$
28,853

 
$
25,725

Impact of unrealized investment gains
180

 
113

Fixed component of variable annuities
189

 
188

Annuity benefits accumulated per balance sheet
$
29,222

 
$
26,026


Statutory Annuity Premiums
AFG’s annuity operations generated statutory premiums of $941 million in the third quarter of 2016 compared to $1.32 billion in the third quarter of 2015, a decrease of $380 million (29%). The following table summarizes AFG’s annuity sales (dollars in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
% Change
Financial institutions single premium annuities — indexed
$
435

 
$
554

 
(21
%)
Financial institutions single premium annuities — fixed
97

 
71

 
37
%
Retail single premium annuities — indexed
340

 
617

 
(45
%)
Retail single premium annuities — fixed
18

 
22

 
(18
%)
Education market — fixed and indexed annuities
42

 
47

 
(11
%)
Total fixed annuity premiums
932

 
1,311

 
(29
%)
Variable annuities
9

 
10

 
(10
%)
Total annuity premiums
$
941

 
$
1,321

 
(29
%)

Management believes the 29% decrease in annuity premiums in the third quarter of 2016 as compared to the third quarter of 2015 is the result of AFG reducing crediting rates on its annuities several times during the first nine months of 2016 in reaction to a significant decline in medium and long-term market interest rates in order to maintain appropriate returns on new business.

AFG continues to make product and process changes needed to comply with the Department of Labor (“DOL”) fiduciary rule adopted earlier this year. AFG’s goal is to minimize disruption resulting from the implementation of the rule in April 2017. AFG is proceeding under the premise that the DOL rule will not be impacted by the pending industry litigation. Most of AFG’s largest independent marketing organizations are making adjustments to their operations to provide a long-term solution to their need to have a Financial Institution sign the Best Interest agreement, and a number of these entities have made application to the DOL to serve as a Financial Institution. AFG believes the biggest impact of the new rule will be on insurance-only licensed agents whose sales represented less than 10% of AFG’s third quarter premiums. While AFG continues to believe the adjustments required of AFG and AFG’s distribution partners to comply with the DOL rule will have a negative impact on annuity premiums next year, management does not believe the new rule will have a material impact on AFG’s results of operations or financial position.

65
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued



Annuity Earnings before Income Taxes Reconciliation
The following table reconciles the net spread earned on AFG’s fixed annuities to overall annuity pretax earnings for the three months ended September 30, 2016 and 2015 (in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
Earnings on fixed annuity benefits accumulated
$
105

 
$
65

Earnings on investments in excess of fixed annuity benefits accumulated (*)
—

 
4

Variable annuity earnings (loss)
2

 
(2
)
Earnings before income taxes
$
107

 
$
67


(*)
Net investment income (as a % of investments) of 4.88% and 4.92% for the three months ended September 30, 2016 and 2015, respectively, multiplied by the difference between average fixed annuity investments (at amortized cost) and average fixed annuity benefits accumulated in each period.

Run-off Long-Term Care and Life Segment — Results of Operations The following table details AFG’s earnings before income taxes from its run-off long-term care and life operations for the three months ended September 30, 2016 and 2015 (dollars in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
% Change
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums:
 
 
 
 


Long-term care
$
—

 
$
19

 
(100
%)
Life operations
6

 
9

 
(33
%)
Net investment income
5

 
20

 
(75
%)
Other income
2

 
2

 
—
%
Total revenues
13

 
50

 
(74
%)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Costs and Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
Life, accident and health benefits:
 
 
 
 


Long-term care
2

 
21

 
(90
%)
Life operations
6

 
10

 
(40
%)
Acquisition expenses
1

 
5

 
(80
%)
Other expenses
3

 
8

 
(63
%)
Total costs and expenses
12

 
44

 
(73
%)
Earnings before income taxes
$
1

 
$
6

 
(83
%)

The decrease in long-term care net earned premiums and benefit expense in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2015 is due to the sale of subsidiaries containing substantially all of AFG’s run-off long-term care insurance business in December of 2015.

Substantially all of the core earnings before income taxes in AFG’s run-off long-term care and life segment in the third quarter of 2015 represent earnings from AFG’s long-term care business and reflect the impact of rate increases and lower persistency, as well as strong net investment income.

66
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Holding Company, Other and Unallocated — Results of Operations   AFG’s net GAAP pretax loss outside of its insurance operations (excluding realized gains) totaled $53 million for both the third quarter of 2016 and 2015. AFG’s net core pretax loss outside of its insurance operations (excluding realized gains and losses) totaled $48 million for the third quarter of 2016 compared to $37 million for the third quarter of 2015, an increase of $11 million (30%).

The following table details AFG’s GAAP and core loss before income taxes from operations outside of its insurance operations for the three months ended September 30, 2016 and 2015 (dollars in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
% Change
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
Net investment income
$
1

 
$
2

 
(50
%)
Other income — P&C fees
14

 
13

 
8
%
Other income
5

 
6

 
(17
%)
Total revenues
20

 
21

 
(5
%)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Costs and Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
Property and casualty insurance — commissions and other underwriting expenses
4

 
3

 
33
%
Interest charges on borrowed money
19

 
18

 
6
%
Other expense — expenses associated with P&C fees
10

 
10

 
—
%
Other expenses (*)
35

 
27

 
30
%
Total costs and expenses
68

 
58

 
17
%
Core loss before income taxes, excluding realized gains and losses
(48
)
 
(37
)
 
30
%
Pretax non-core special A&E charges
(5
)
 
(12
)
 
(58
%)
Pretax non-core loss on retirement of debt
—

 
(4
)
 
(100
%)
GAAP loss before income taxes, excluding realized gains
$
(53
)
 
$
(53
)
 
—
%
(*)
Excludes pretax non-core special A&E charges of $5 million and $12 million for the third quarter of 2016 and 2015, respectively, and a pretax non-core loss on retirement of debt of $4 million in the third quarter of 2015.

Holding Company and Other — Net Investment Income
AFG recorded net investment income on investments held outside of its insurance operations of $1 million in the third quarter of 2016 compared to $2 million in the third quarter of 2015. The parent company holds a small portfolio of securities that are classified as “trading” and carried at fair value through net investment income. These trading securities decreased slightly in value in the third quarter of 2016 compared to an increase in value of approximately $1 million in the third quarter of 2015.

Holding Company and Other — P&C Fees and Related Expenses
Summit, the workers’ compensation insurance business that AFG acquired in April 2014, collects fees from a small group of unaffiliated insurers for providing underwriting, policy administration and claims services. In addition, certain of AFG’s property and casualty businesses collect fees from customers for ancillary services such as workplace safety programs and premium financing. In the third quarter of 2016, AFG collected $14 million in fees for these services compared to $13 million in the third quarter of 2015. Management views this fee income, net of the $10 million in both the third quarter of 2016 and 2015, in expenses incurred to generate such fees, as a reduction in the cost of underwriting its property and casualty insurance policies. Consistent with internal management reporting, these fees and the related expenses are netted and recorded as a reduction of commissions and other underwriting expenses in AFG’s segmented results.

Holding Company and Other — Other Income
Other income in the table above includes $4 million in both the third quarter of 2016 and 2015, in management fees paid to AFG by the AFG-managed CLOs (AFG’s consolidated managed investment entities). The management fees are eliminated in consolidation — see the other income line in the Consolidate MIEs column under “Results of Operations — Segmented Statement of Earnings.”


67
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Holding Company and Other — Interest Charges on Borrowed Money
AFG’s holding companies and other operations outside of its insurance operations recorded interest expense of $19 million in the third quarter of 2016 compared to $18 million in the third quarter of 2015, an increase of $1 million (6%). This increase reflects higher average indebtedness, partially offset by lower average interest rates on outstanding debt. The following table details the principal amount of AFG’s long-term debt balances as of September 30, 2016 compared to July 1, 2015 (dollars in millions):
 
September 30,
2016
 
July 1,
2015
Direct obligations of AFG:
 
 
 
9-7/8% Senior Notes due June 2019
$
350

 
$
350

3-1/2% Senior Notes due August 2026
300

 
—

6-3/8% Senior Notes due June 2042
230

 
230

5-3/4% Senior Notes due August 2042
125

 
125

7% Senior Notes due September 2050
—

 
132

6-1/4% Subordinated Debentures due September 2054
150

 
150

6% Subordinated Debentures due November 2055
150

 
—

Other
3

 
3

Total principal amount of Holding Company Debt
$
1,308

 
$
990

 
 
 
 
Weighted Average Interest Rate
6.5
%
 
7.6
%

The increase in average indebtedness for the third quarter of 2016 as compared to the third quarter of 2015 reflects the following financing transactions completed by AFG between July 1, 2015 and September 30, 2016:
•
Issued $300 million of 3-1/2% Senior Notes on August 22, 2016.
•
Issued $150 million of 6% Subordinated Debentures on November 17, 2015.
•
Redeemed $132 million of 7% Senior Notes at par value on September 30, 2015.

Holding Company and Other — Other Expenses
Excluding the non-core special A&E charges and the non-core loss on retirement of debt discussed below, AFG’s holding companies and other operations outside of its insurance operations recorded other expenses of $35 million in the third quarter of 2016 compared to $27 million in the third quarter of 2015, an increase of $8 million (30%). This increase reflects a $5 million donation to the University of Cincinnati College of Business in the third quarter of 2016 and the impact of higher holding company expenses related to employee benefit plans that are tied to stock market performance in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2015.

Holding Company and Other — Special A&E Charges
As a result of the 2016 internal review and the 2015 comprehensive external study of A&E exposures discussed under “Special asbestos and environmental reserve charges” under “Results of Operations — Property and Casualty Insurance,” AFG’s holding companies and other operations outside of its insurance operations recorded pretax special charges of $5 million in the third quarter of 2016 and $12 million in the third quarter of 2015 to increase liabilities related to the A&E exposures of AFG’s former railroad and manufacturing operations. The $5 million charge in 2016 is due to relatively small movements across several sites that primarily reflect changes in the scope and costs of investigation. The $12 million charge in 2015 relates to slightly higher estimated costs at sites where remediation is underway, coupled with higher estimated clean-up costs at a limited number of sites.

Holding Company and Other — Loss on Retirement of Debt
AFG wrote off unamortized debt issuance costs of $4 million related to the redemption of its $132 million outstanding 7% Senior Notes due 2050 at par value on September 30, 2015.


68
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Consolidated Realized Gains (Losses) on Securities   AFG’s consolidated realized gains (losses) on securities, which are not allocated to segments, were gains of $2 million in the third quarter of 2016 compared to losses of $16 million in the third quarter of 2015, an improvement of $18 million (113%). Realized gains (losses) on securities consisted of the following (in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
2016
 
2015
Realized gains (losses) before impairments:
 
 
 
Disposals
$
22

 
$
24

Change in the fair value of derivatives
(3
)
 
(4
)
Adjustments to annuity deferred policy acquisition costs and related items
(1
)
 
(1
)
 
18

 
19

Impairment charges:
 
 
 
Securities
(18
)
 
(40
)
Adjustments to annuity deferred policy acquisition costs and related items
2

 
5

 
(16
)
 
(35
)
Realized gains (losses) on securities
$
2

 
$
(16
)

AFG’s impairment charges on securities for the third quarter of 2016 consist of $16 million on equity securities and $2 million on fixed maturities compared to $23 million on equity securities and $17 million on fixed maturities in the third quarter of 2015. Approximately $11 million in impairment charges in the third quarter of 2016 are related to financial institutions and $6 million relates to a company in the forest products industry. Approximately $17 million of the charges recorded in the third quarter of 2015 are attributable to energy related investments, $7 million are on real estate related investments and $7 million are on investments in metal mining companies.

Consolidated Realized Gains (Losses) on Subsidiaries   The $5 million pretax realized gain on subsidiaries in the third quarter of 2015 represents an adjustment to the previously recognized loss on a small property and casualty subsidiary sold several years ago.

Consolidated Income Taxes   AFG’s consolidated provision for income taxes was $65 million for the third quarter of 2016 compared to $33 million for the third quarter of 2015, an increase of $32 million (97%). See Note L — “Income Taxes” to the financial statements for an analysis of items affecting AFG’s effective tax rate.

Consolidated Noncontrolling Interests   AFG’s consolidated net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests was $4 million for the third quarter of 2016 compared to $3 million for the third quarter of 2015. The following table details net earnings in consolidated subsidiaries attributable to holders other than AFG (dollars in millions):
 
Three months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
% Change
National Interstate
$
4

 
$
2

 
100
%
Other
—

 
1

 
(100
%)
Earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests
$
4

 
$
3

 
33
%



69
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


RESULTS OF OPERATIONS — NINE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2016 AND 2015

Segmented Statement of Earnings   AFG reports its business as four segments: (i) Property and casualty insurance (“P&C”), (ii) Annuity, (iii) Run-off long-term care and life and (iv) Other, which includes holding company costs and income and expenses related to the managed investment entities (“MIEs”).

AFG’s net earnings attributable to shareholders, determined in accordance with GAAP, include certain items that may not be indicative of its ongoing core operations. The following tables for the nine months ended September 30, 2016 and 2015 identify such items by segment and reconcile net earnings attributable to shareholders to core net operating earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure that AFG believes is a useful tool for investors and analysts in analyzing ongoing operating trends (in millions):
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
P&C
 
Annuity
 
Run-off long-term care and life
 
Consol. MIEs
 
Holding Co., other and unallocated
 
Total
 
Non-core reclass
 
GAAP Total
Nine months ended September 30, 2016
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property and casualty insurance net earned premiums
$
3,184

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
3,184

 
$
—

 
$
3,184

Life, accident and health net earned premiums
—

 
—

 
18

 
—

 
—

 
18

 
—

 
18

Net investment income
265

 
1,010

 
15

 
(29
)
 
6

 
1,267

 
—

 
1,267

Realized gains (losses) on:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Securities
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(32
)
 
(32
)
Subsidiaries
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
2

 
2

Income (loss) of MIEs:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Investment income
—

 
—

 
—

 
141

 
—

 
141

 
—

 
141

Gain (loss) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities
—

 
—

 
—

 
9

 
—

 
9

 
—

 
9

Other income
14

 
76

 
4

 
(12
)
 
58

 
140

 
32

 
172

Total revenues
3,463

 
1,086

 
37

 
109

 
64

 
4,759

 
2

 
4,761

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Costs and Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property and casualty insurance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Losses and loss adjustment expenses
1,940

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
1,940

 
93

 
2,033

Commissions and other underwriting expenses
1,017

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
13

 
1,030

 
8

 
1,038

Annuity benefits
—

 
640

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
640

 
—

 
640

Life, accident and health benefits
—

 
—

 
26

 
—

 
—

 
26

 
—

 
26

Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses
—

 
127

 
4

 
—

 
—

 
131

 
—

 
131

Interest charges on borrowed money
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
56

 
56

 
—

 
56

Expenses of MIEs
—

 
—

 
—

 
109

 
—

 
109

 
—

 
109

Other expenses
42

 
83

 
7

 
—

 
121

 
253

 
5

 
258

Total costs and expenses
2,999

 
850

 
37

 
109

 
190

 
4,185

 
106

 
4,291

Earnings before income taxes
464

 
236

 
—

 
—

 
(126
)
 
574

 
(104
)
 
470

Provision for income taxes
164

 
83

 
—

 
—

 
(45
)
 
202

 
(12
)
 
190

Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests
300

 
153

 
—

 
—

 
(81
)
 
372

 
(92
)
 
280

Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests
14

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
14

 
2

 
16

Core Net Operating Earnings
286

 
153

 
—

 
—

 
(81
)
 
358

 
 
 
 
Non-core earnings attributable to shareholders (a):
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized losses on securities, net of tax and noncontrolling interests
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(19
)
 
(19
)
 
19

 
—

Realized gain on subsidiaries, net of tax
—

 
—

 
1

 
—

 
—

 
1

 
(1
)
 
—

Gain on sale of apartment property, net of tax and noncontrolling interests
15

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
15

 
(15
)
 
—

Special A&E charges, net of tax
(23
)
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(3
)
 
(26
)
 
26

 
—

Neon exited lines charge
(65
)
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(65
)
 
65

 
—

Net Earnings Attributable to Shareholders
$
213

 
$
153

 
$
1

 
$
—

 
$
(103
)
 
$
264

 
$
—

 
$
264


70
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
P&C
 
Annuity
 
Run-off long-term care and life
 
Consol. MIEs
 
Holding Co., other and unallocated
 
Total
 
Non-core reclass
 
GAAP Total
Nine months ended September 30, 2015
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property and casualty insurance net earned premiums
$
3,104

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
—

 
$
3,104

 
$
—

 
$
3,104

Life, accident and health net earned premiums
—

 
—

 
80

 
—

 
—

 
80

 
—

 
80

Net investment income
245

 
915

 
61

 
(5
)
 
1

 
1,217

 
—

 
1,217

Realized gains (losses) on:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Securities
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
2

 
2

Subsidiaries
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(157
)
 
(157
)
Income (loss) of MIEs:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Investment income
—

 
—

 
—

 
112

 
—

 
112

 
—

 
112

Gain (loss) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities
—

 
—

 
—

 
(16
)
 
—

 
(16
)
 
—

 
(16
)
Other income
10

 
75

 
4

 
(11
)
 
56

 
134

 
51

 
185

Total revenues
3,359

 
990

 
145

 
80

 
57

 
4,631

 
(104
)
 
4,527

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Costs and Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Property and casualty insurance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Losses and loss adjustment expenses
1,935

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
1,935

 
67

 
2,002

Commissions and other underwriting expenses
977

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
10

 
987

 
—

 
987

Annuity benefits
—

 
543

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
543

 
—

 
543

Life, accident and health benefits
—

 
—

 
96

 
—

 
—

 
96

 
—

 
96

Annuity and supplemental insurance acquisition expenses
—

 
143

 
13

 
—

 
—

 
156

 
—

 
156

Interest charges on borrowed money
1

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
57

 
58

 
—

 
58

Expenses of MIEs
—

 
—

 
—

 
80

 
—

 
80

 
—

 
80

Other expenses
33

 
74

 
22

 
—

 
105

 
234

 
16

 
250

Total costs and expenses
2,946

 
760

 
131

 
80

 
172

 
4,089

 
83

 
4,172

Earnings before income taxes
413

 
230

 
14

 
—

 
(115
)
 
542

 
(187
)
 
355

Provision for income taxes
135

 
79

 
5

 
—

 
(39
)
 
180

 
(65
)
 
115

Net earnings, including noncontrolling interests
278

 
151

 
9

 
—

 
(76
)
 
362

 
(122
)
 
240

Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests
10

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
2

 
12

 
5

 
17

Core Net Operating Earnings
268

 
151

 
9

 
—

 
(78
)
 
350

 
 
 
 
Non-core earnings attributable to shareholders (a):
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains on securities, net of tax and noncontrolling interests
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
2

 
2

 
(2
)
 
—

Realized gain (loss) on subsidiaries, net of tax
—

 
—

 
(105
)
 
—

 
4

 
(101
)
 
101

 
—

Gain on sale of Le Pavillon Hotel, net of tax and non-controlling interests
26

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
26

 
(26
)
 
—

Special A&E charges, net of tax
(44
)
 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(8
)
 
(52
)
 
52

 
—

Loss on retirement of debt, net of tax
—

 
—

 
—

 
—

 
(2
)
 
(2
)
 
2

 
—

Net Earnings Attributable to Shareholders
$
250

 
$
151

 
$
(96
)
 
$
—

 
$
(82
)
 
$
223

 
$
—

 
$
223


(a)
See the reconciliation of core earnings to GAAP net earnings under “Results of Operations — General” for details on the tax and noncontrolling interest impacts of these reconciling items.

Property and Casualty Insurance Segment — Results of Operations   AFG’s property and casualty insurance operations contributed $395 million in GAAP pretax earnings in the first nine months of 2016 compared to $397 million in the first nine months of 2015, a decrease of $2 million (1%). Property and casualty core pretax earnings were $464 million in the first nine months of 2016 compared to $413 million in the first nine months of 2015, an increase of $51 million (12%). The decrease in GAAP pretax earnings reflects a pretax non-core charge of $65 million in the second quarter of 2016 related to the exit of certain lines of business within Neon, a $32 million pretax non-core gain on the sale of an apartment property in the second

71
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


quarter of 2016 compared to a $51 million pretax non-core gain on the sale of Le Pavillon Hotel in the second quarter of 2015 and special A&E charges of $36 million in the first nine months of 2016 compared to $67 million in the comparable 2015 period. GAAP and core pretax earnings reflect improved underwriting results in the Property and transportation group and higher net investment income, partially offset by lower underwriting profit in the Specialty casualty and Specialty financial groups.
The following table details AFG’s GAAP and core earnings before income taxes from its property and casualty insurance operations for the nine months ended September 30, 2016 and 2015 (dollars in millions):

 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
% Change
Gross written premiums
$
4,540

 
$
4,476

 
1
%
Reinsurance premiums ceded
(1,237
)
 
(1,205
)
 
3
%
Net written premiums
3,303

 
3,271

 
1
%
Change in unearned premiums
(119
)
 
(167
)
 
(29
%)
Net earned premiums
3,184

 
3,104

 
3
%
Loss and loss adjustment expenses (a)
1,940

 
1,935

 
—
%
Commissions and other underwriting expenses (b)
1,017

 
977

 
4
%
Core underwriting gain
227

 
192

 
18
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net investment income
265

 
245

 
8
%
Other income and expenses, net (c)
(28
)
 
(24
)
 
17
%
Core earnings before income taxes
464

 
413

 
12
%
Pretax non-core special A&E charges
(36
)
 
(67
)
 
(46
%)
Pretax non-core Neon exited lines charge
(65
)
 
—

 
—
%
Pretax non-core gain on sale of apartment property and hotel
32

 
51

 
(37
%)
GAAP earnings before income taxes
$
395

 
$
397

 
(1
%)
 
 
 
 
 
 
(a)   Excludes pretax non-core special A&E charges of $36 million and $67 million in the third quarter of 2016 and 2015, respectively, and a non-core charge of $57 million related to the exit of certain lines of business within Neon in the second quarter of 2016.
(b)   Excludes a non-core charge of $8 million related to the exit of certain lines of business within Neon in the second quarter of 2016.
(c)   Excludes pretax non-core gains of $32 million on the sale of an apartment property in the second quarter of 2016 and$51 million on the sale of Le Pavillon Hotel in the second quarter of 2015.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Combined Ratios:
 
 
 
 
 
Specialty lines
 
 
 
 
Change
Loss and LAE ratio
61.0
%
 
62.2
%
 
(1.2
%)
Underwriting expense ratio
31.9
%
 
31.5
%
 
0.4
%
Combined ratio
92.9
%
 
93.7
%
 
(0.8
%)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Aggregate — including exited lines
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and LAE ratio
63.8
%
 
64.5
%
 
(0.7
%)
Underwriting expense ratio
32.2
%
 
31.5
%
 
0.7
%
Combined ratio
96.0
%
 
96.0
%
 
—
%

AFG reports the underwriting performance of its Specialty property and casualty insurance business in the following sub-segments: (i) Property and transportation, (ii) Specialty casualty and (iii) Specialty financial.


72
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Gross Written Premiums
Gross written premiums (“GWP”) for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment were $4.54 billion for the first nine months of 2016 compared to $4.48 billion for the first nine months of 2015, an increase of $64 million (1%). Detail of AFG’s property and casualty gross written premiums is shown below (dollars in millions):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
 
 
GWP
 
%
 
GWP
 
%
 
% Change
Property and transportation
$
1,927

 
43
%
 
$
1,940

 
43
%
 
(1
%)
Specialty casualty
2,108

 
46
%
 
2,078

 
46
%
 
1
%
Specialty financial
505

 
11
%
 
458

 
11
%
 
10
%
 
$
4,540

 
100
%
 
$
4,476

 
100
%
 
1
%

Reinsurance Premiums Ceded
Reinsurance premiums ceded (“Ceded”) for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment were 27% of gross written premiums for both of the first nine months of 2016 and 2015. Detail of AFG’s property and casualty reinsurance premiums ceded is shown below (dollars in millions):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
Change in
 
Ceded
 
% of GWP
 
Ceded
 
% of GWP
 
% of GWP
Property and transportation
$
(649
)
 
34
%
 
$
(682
)
 
35
%
 
(1
%)
Specialty casualty
(582
)
 
28
%
 
(529
)
 
25
%
 
3
%
Specialty financial
(87
)
 
17
%
 
(70
)
 
15
%
 
2
%
Other specialty
81

 
 
 
76

 
 
 
 
 
$
(1,237
)
 
27
%
 
$
(1,205
)
 
27
%
 
—
%

Net Written Premiums
Net written premiums (“NWP”) for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment were $3.30 billion for the first nine months of 2016 compared to $3.27 billion for the first nine months of 2015, an increase of $32 million (1%). Detail of AFG’s property and casualty net written premiums is shown below (dollars in millions):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
 
 
NWP
 
%
 
NWP
 
%
 
% Change
Property and transportation
$
1,278

 
39
%
 
$
1,258

 
38
%
 
2
%
Specialty casualty
1,526

 
46
%
 
1,549

 
47
%
 
(1
%)
Specialty financial
418

 
13
%
 
388

 
12
%
 
8
%
Other specialty
81

 
2
%
 
76

 
3
%
 
7
%
 
$
3,303

 
100
%
 
$
3,271

 
100
%
 
1
%

Net Earned Premiums
Net earned premiums (“NEP”) for AFG’s property and casualty insurance segment were $3.18 billion for the first nine months of 2016 compared to $3.10 billion for the first nine months of 2015, an increase of $80 million (3%). Detail of AFG’s property and casualty net earned premiums is shown below (dollars in millions):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
 
 
NEP
 
%
 
NEP
 
%
 
% Change
Property and transportation
$
1,197

 
38
%
 
$
1,157

 
37
%
 
3
%
Specialty casualty
1,496

 
47
%
 
1,496

 
48
%
 
—
%
Specialty financial
416

 
13
%
 
380

 
12
%
 
9
%
Other specialty
75

 
2
%
 
71

 
3
%
 
6
%
 
$
3,184

 
100
%
 
$
3,104

 
100
%
 
3
%


73
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


The $64 million (1%) increase in gross written premiums for the first nine months of 2016 compared to the first nine months of 2015 reflects growth in the Specialty casualty and Specialty financial sub-segments. Overall average renewal rates were flat in the first nine months of 2016.

Property and transportation Gross written premiums decreased $13 million (1%) in the first nine months of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. This decrease was the result of lower year-over-year premiums in the crop business, primarily the result of lower spring commodity pricing, partially offset by growth in the transportation businesses and new gross written premiums from the Singapore branch, which opened for business in June 2015. Excluding crop, gross written premiums increased 4% over the comparable prior year period. Average renewal rates increased approximately 3% for this group in the first nine months of 2016, including a 5% increase in National Interstate’s renewal rates. Reinsurance premiums ceded as a percentage of gross written premiums decreased 1 percentage point for the first nine months of 2016 compared to the first nine months of 2015, reflecting lower cessions in the crop business.

Specialty casualty Gross written premiums increased $30 million (1%) in the first nine months of 2016 compared to the first nine months of 2015. Higher premiums in the excess and surplus, targeted markets and workers’ compensation businesses were partially offset by lower premiums in the general liability businesses and by Neon’s exit of certain lines of business and implementation of more stringent underwriting standards at Neon. Lower premiums in the general liability business were primarily the result of competitive market conditions, re-underwriting efforts within the Florida homebuilders market and the slowdown within the energy sector. Average renewal rates decreased approximately 1% for this group in the first nine months of 2016, including a decrease of approximately 4% in the workers’ compensation businesses. Excluding the workers’ compensation business, average renewal rates for this group increased approximately 1% during the first nine months of 2016. Reinsurance premiums ceded as a percentage of gross written premiums increased 3 percentage points for the first nine months of 2016 compared to the first nine months of 2015, reflecting the cession of Neon’s UK medical malpractice business and a change in the mix of business at Neon.

Specialty financial Gross written premiums increased $47 million (10%) in the first nine months of 2016 compared to the first nine months of 2015 due primarily to growth in the financial institutions and surety businesses. Average renewal rates for this group were flat in the first nine months of 2016. Reinsurance premiums ceded as a percentage of gross written premiums increased 2 percentage points for the first nine months of 2016 compared to the first nine months of 2015, reflecting higher cessions in the financial institutions business, partially offset by a decline in auto dealer business, which is heavily reinsured.

Other specialty The amounts shown as reinsurance premiums ceded represent business assumed by AFG’s internal reinsurance program from the operations that make up AFG’s other Specialty property and casualty insurance sub-segments.


74
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Combined Ratio
The table below (dollars in millions) details the components of the combined ratio for AFG’s property and casualty segment:
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
 
Change
 
2016
 
2015
Property and transportation
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and LAE ratio
66.4
%
 
72.7
%
 
(6.3
%)
 
 
 
 
Underwriting expense ratio
26.0
%
 
26.0
%
 
—
%
 
 
 
 
Combined ratio
92.4
%
 
98.7
%
 
(6.3
%)
 
 
 
 
Underwriting profit
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
91

 
$
14

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Specialty casualty
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and LAE ratio
65.0
%
 
63.5
%
 
1.5
%
 
 
 
 
Underwriting expense ratio
30.7
%
 
30.1
%
 
0.6
%
 
 
 
 
Combined ratio
95.7
%
 
93.6
%
 
2.1
%
 
 
 
 
Underwriting profit
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
65

 
$
96

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Specialty financial
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and LAE ratio
31.8
%
 
28.5
%
 
3.3
%
 
 
 
 
Underwriting expense ratio
52.7
%
 
52.5
%
 
0.2
%
 
 
 
 
Combined ratio
84.5
%
 
81.0
%
 
3.5
%
 
 
 
 
Underwriting profit
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
64

 
$
72

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total Specialty
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and LAE ratio
61.0
%
 
62.2
%
 
(1.2
%)
 
 
 
 
Underwriting expense ratio
31.9
%
 
31.5
%
 
0.4
%
 
 
 
 
Combined ratio
92.9
%
 
93.7
%
 
(0.8
%)
 
 
 
 
Underwriting profit
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
227

 
$
195

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Aggregate — including exited lines
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and LAE ratio
63.8
%
 
64.5
%
 
(0.7
%)
 
 
 
 
Underwriting expense ratio
32.2
%
 
31.5
%
 
0.7
%
 
 
 
 
Combined ratio
96.0
%
 
96.0
%
 
—
%
 
 
 
 
Underwriting profit
 
 
 
 
 
 
$
126

 
$
125

The Specialty property and casualty insurance operations generated an underwriting profit of $227 million in the first nine months of 2016 compared to $195 million in the first nine months of 2015, an increase of $32 million (16%). The higher underwriting profit in the first nine months of 2016 reflects higher underwriting profit in the Property and transportation sub-segment, partially offset by lower underwriting profit in the Specialty casualty and Specialty financial sub-segments.

Property and transportation Underwriting profit for this group was $91 million for the first nine months of 2016 compared to $14 million for the first nine months of 2015, an increase of $77 million (550%). This improvement reflects higher underwriting profit in the transportation businesses, due primarily to favorable prior year reserve development, and higher profitability in the crop insurance and property and inland marine businesses.

Specialty casualty Underwriting profit for this group was $65 million for the first nine months of 2016 compared to $96 million for the first nine months of 2015, a decrease of $31 million (32%). Higher underwriting profitability in the workers’ compensation and executive liability businesses, due primarily to higher favorable prior year reserve development, and improved results in the general liability business were more than offset by adverse prior year reserve development in the excess and surplus and targeted markets businesses and current accident year trade credit losses in Neon’s political risk and trade credit business.

Specialty financial Underwriting profit for this group was $64 million for the first nine months of 2016 compared to $72 million for the first nine months of 2015, a decrease of $8 million (11%). Higher underwriting profit in the fidelity and crime business, primarily the result of higher favorable prior year reserve development, was more than offset by adverse prior year reserve development in the financial institutions business and lower underwriting profit in the trade credit businesses, resulting primarily from lower favorable prior year reserve development.


75
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Other specialty Underwriting profit for this group was $7 million for the first nine months of 2016 compared to $13 million in the first nine months of 2015, a decrease of $6 million (46%). The decrease is due primarily to lower favorable prior year loss development in the business assumed by AFG’s internal reinsurance program from the operations that make up AFG’s other Specialty sub-segments.

Aggregate See “Net prior year reserve development” under “Property and Casualty Insurance Segment — Results of Operations” for the quarters ended September 30, 2016 and 2015 for a discussion of the $36 million and $67 million pretax non-core special A&E charges recorded in the third quarter of 2016 and 2015, respectively. As discussed below in more detail under “Net prior year reserve development,” AFG recorded a $65 million non-core charge in the second quarter of 2016 related to the exit of certain lines of business within Neon, AFG’s Lloyd’s-based insurer.

Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses
AFG’s overall loss and LAE ratio was 63.8% for the first nine months of 2016 compared to 64.5% for the first nine months of 2015, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points. The components of AFG’s property and casualty losses and LAE amounts and ratio are detailed below (dollars in millions):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
 
Amount
 
Ratio
 
Change in
 
2016
 
2015
 
2016
 
2015
 
Ratio
Property and transportation
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses
$
804

 
$
817

 
67.1
%
 
70.6
%
 
(3.5
%)
Prior accident years development
(34
)
 
7

 
(2.8
%)
 
0.5
%
 
(3.3
%)
Current year catastrophe losses
25

 
18

 
2.1
%
 
1.6
%
 
0.5
%
Property and transportation losses and LAE and ratio
$
795

 
$
842

 
66.4
%
 
72.7
%
 
(6.3
%)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Specialty casualty
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses
$
982

 
$
951

 
65.7
%
 
63.5
%
 
2.2
%
Prior accident years development
(16
)
 
(4
)
 
(1.1
%)
 
(0.2
%)
 
(0.9
%)
Current year catastrophe losses
6

 
3

 
0.4
%
 
0.2
%
 
0.2
%
Specialty casualty losses and LAE and ratio
$
972

 
$
950

 
65.0
%
 
63.5
%
 
1.5
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Specialty financial
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses
$
140

 
$
129

 
33.6
%
 
33.9
%
 
(0.3
%)
Prior accident years development
(17
)
 
(25
)
 
(4.0
%)
 
(6.5
%)
 
2.5
%
Current year catastrophe losses
9

 
4

 
2.2
%
 
1.1
%
 
1.1
%
Specialty financial losses and LAE and ratio
$
132

 
$
108

 
31.8
%
 
28.5
%
 
3.3
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total Specialty
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses
$
1,968

 
$
1,938

 
61.8
%
 
62.4
%
 
(0.6
%)
Prior accident years development
(71
)
 
(32
)
 
(2.1
%)
 
(1.0
%)
 
(1.1
%)
Current year catastrophe losses
43

 
26

 
1.3
%
 
0.8
%
 
0.5
%
Total Specialty losses and LAE and ratio
$
1,940

 
$
1,932

 
61.0
%
 
62.2
%
 
(1.2
%)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Aggregate — including exited lines
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Current year, excluding catastrophe losses
$
1,968

 
$
1,938

 
61.8
%
 
62.4
%
 
(0.6
%)
Prior accident years development
22

 
38

 
0.7
%
 
1.3
%
 
(0.6
%)
Current year catastrophe losses
43

 
26

 
1.3
%
 
0.8
%
 
0.5
%
Aggregate losses and LAE and ratio
$
2,033

 
$
2,002

 
63.8
%
 
64.5
%
 
(0.7
%)
Current accident year losses and LAE, excluding catastrophe losses
The current accident year loss and LAE ratio, excluding catastrophe losses for AFG’s Specialty property and casualty insurance operations was 61.8% for the first nine months of 2016 compared to 62.4% for the first nine months of 2015, a decrease of 0.6%.

Property and transportation   The 3.5 percentage point decrease in the loss and LAE ratio for the current year, excluding catastrophe losses reflects a decrease in the loss and LAE ratio of the property and inland marine and transportation businesses, as well as the crop operations.


76
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Specialty casualty   The 2.2 percentage point increase in the loss and LAE ratio for the current year, excluding catastrophe losses reflects an increase in current accident year trade credit losses in Neon’s political risk and trade credit business and an increase in the loss and LAE ratio of the targeted markets, general liability and executive liability businesses.

Specialty financial   The loss and LAE ratio for the current year, excluding catastrophe losses is comparable between periods.

Net prior year reserve development
AFG’s Specialty property and casualty insurance operations recorded net favorable reserve development related to prior accident years of $71 million in the first nine months of 2016 compared to $32 million in the first nine months of 2015, an increase of $39 million (122%).

Property and transportation Net favorable reserve development of $34 million in the first nine months of 2016 reflects lower than expected losses in the crop operations and lower than expected claim severity in the property and inland marine and trucking businesses. Net adverse reserve development of $7 million in the first nine months of 2015 reflects higher than expected claim severity and frequency in the transportation businesses and higher than anticipated claim frequency in the ocean marine business, partially offset by lower than expected claim severity in the property and inland marine business, agricultural operations and a run-off book of homebuilders business.

Specialty casualty Net favorable reserve development of $16 million in the first nine months of 2016 reflects lower than anticipated claim severity in workers’ compensation business and directors and officers liability insurance and lower than expected claim frequency and severity in excess liability business, partially offset by adverse reserve development at Neon, higher than anticipated severity in New York contractor claims and higher than anticipated claim severity in general liability insurance. Net favorable reserve development of $4 million in the first nine months of 2015 includes lower than anticipated claim severity in workers’ compensation business, lower than anticipated claim severity and frequency in excess liability insurance and lower than expected claim severity in directors and officers liability insurance, partially offset by higher than anticipated severity and frequency in contractor claims and adverse reserve development at Neon.

Specialty financial Net favorable reserve development of $17 million in the first nine months of 2016 reflects lower than anticipated claim severity in the fidelity and crime business and lower than expected claim frequency and severity in the surety business, partially offset by higher than anticipated claim frequency in the financial institutions business. Net favorable reserve development of $25 million in the first nine months of 2015 reflects lower than anticipated claim frequency and severity in the trade credit business, surety business and products for financial institutions and lower than expected claim severity in the fidelity business.

Other specialty In addition to the development discussed above, total Specialty prior year reserve development includes net favorable reserve development of $4 million in the first nine months of 2016 and $10 million in the first nine months of 2015, reflecting amortization of the deferred gain on the retroactive insurance transaction entered into in connection with the sale of businesses in 1998 and 2001 and reserve development associated with AFG’s internal reinsurance program.

Special asbestos and environmental reserve charges See “Net prior year reserve development” under “Results of Operations — Property and Casualty Insurance” for the quarters ended September 30, 2016 and 2015 for a discussion of the $36 million and $67 million special A&E charges recorded in the third quarter of 2016 and 2015, respectively.

Neon exited lines charge During the second quarter of 2016, AFG’s specialist Lloyd’s market insurer completed a strategic review of its business under a new leadership team and re-launched as Neon Underwriting Ltd. As part of its strategic review, Neon sold and/or exited certain historical lines of business including its UK and international medical malpractice and general liability classes. As a result of Neon’s claims review of its exited lines of business, AFG recorded a charge of approximately $65 million including $57 million to increase loss reserves primarily related to its medical malpractice and general liability lines. Consistent with the treatment of other items that are not indicative of AFG’s ongoing operations (both favorable and unfavorable), this charge is being treated as non-core because it resulted from a special strategic review of lines of business that Neon no longer writes.

Aggregate Aggregate net prior accident years reserve development for AFG’s property and casualty segment includes the special A&E charges and Neon exited lines charge mentioned above and adverse reserve development of $3 million in the first nine months of 2015 related to business outside of the Specialty group that AFG no longer writes.


77
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Catastrophe losses
AFG generally seeks to reduce its exposure to catastrophes through individual risk selection, including minimizing coastal and known fault-line exposures, and the purchase of reinsurance. Based on data available at December 31, 2015, AFG’s exposure to a catastrophic earthquake or windstorm that industry models indicate could occur once in every 500 years (a “500-year event”) is expected to be less than 3.5% of AFG’s shareholders’ equity. Catastrophe losses of $43 million in the first nine months of 2016 resulted primarily from winter storms in the first quarter of 2016, April storms in Texas in the second quarter of 2016 and flooding in Louisiana and multiple storms in the southern United States in the third quarter of 2016. Catastrophe losses of $26 million in the first nine months of 2015 resulted primarily from winter storms in the first quarter of 2015 and multiple storms in the midwestern and central United States in the second and third quarters of 2015.

Commissions and Other Underwriting Expenses
AFG’s property and casualty commissions and other underwriting expenses (“U/W Exp”) were $1.03 billion in the first nine months of 2016 compared to $977 million for the first nine months of 2015, an increase of $48 million (5%). AFG’s underwriting expense ratio was 32.2% for the first nine months of 2016 compared to 31.5% for the first nine months of 2015, an increase of 0.7 percentage points. Detail of AFG’s property and casualty commissions and other underwriting expenses and underwriting expense ratios is shown below (dollars in millions):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
Change in
 
U/W Exp
 
% of NEP
 
U/W Exp
 
% of NEP
 
% of NEP
Property and transportation
$
311

 
26.0
%
 
$
301

 
26.0
%
 
—
%
Specialty casualty
459

 
30.7
%
 
450

 
30.1
%
 
0.6
%
Specialty financial
220

 
52.7
%
 
200

 
52.5
%
 
0.2
%
Other specialty
27

 
36.9
%
 
26

 
36.1
%
 
0.8
%
Total Specialty
1,017

 
31.9
%
 
977

 
31.5
%
 
0.4
%
Neon exited lines charge
8

 
 
 
—

 
 
 


Total Aggregate
$
1,025

 
32.2
%
 
$
977

 
31.5
%
 
0.7
%

AFG’s overall expense ratio increased 0.7% in the first nine months of 2016 compared to the first nine months of 2015.

Property and transportation   Commissions and other underwriting expenses as a percentage of net earned premiums were comparable in the first nine months of 2016 and the first nine months of 2015.

Specialty casualty   Commissions and other underwriting expenses as a percentage of net earned premiums increased 0.6 percentage points in the first nine months of 2016 compared to the first nine months of 2015 due primarily to the impact of lower premiums at Neon on the ratio, partially offset by the impact of a charge in the second quarter of 2015 to write off certain previously capitalized project costs.

Specialty financial   Commissions and other underwriting expenses as a percentage of net earned premiums were comparable in the first nine months of 2016 compared to the first nine months of 2015.

Aggregate   Aggregate commissions and other underwriting expenses for AFG’s property and casualty segment includes $8 million of restructuring charges recorded as part of the $65 million non-core charge related to the exit of certain lines of business within Neon, AFG’s Lloyd’s-based insurer recorded in the second quarter of 2016. See “Net prior year reserve development” under “Property and Casualty Insurance Segment — Results of Operations” for the nine months ended September 30, 2016 and 2015.


78
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Property and Casualty Net Investment Income
Net investment income in AFG’s property and casualty operations was $265 million in the first nine months of 2016 compared to $245 million in the first nine months of 2015, an increase of $20 million (8%). In recent years, yields available in the financial markets on fixed maturity securities have generally declined, placing downward pressure on AFG’s investment portfolio yield. The average invested assets and overall yield earned on investments held by AFG’s property and casualty operations are provided below (dollars in millions):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
Change
 
% Change
Net investment income
$
265

 
$
245

 
$
20

 
8
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Average invested assets (at amortized cost)
$
9,507

 
$
8,880

 
$
627

 
7
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Yield (net investment income as a % of average invested assets)
3.72
%
 
3.68
%
 
0.04
%
 


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax equivalent yield (*)
4.22
%
 
4.25
%
 
(0.03
%)
 



(*)
Adjusts the yield on equity securities and tax-exempt bonds to the fully taxable equivalent yield.

The increase in average invested assets and net investment income in the property and casualty segment for the first nine months of 2016 as compared to the first nine months of 2015 is due primarily to growth in the property and casualty segment. The property and casualty segment’s overall yield on investments (net investment income as a percentage of average invested assets) was 3.72% for the first nine months of 2016 compared to 3.68% for the first nine months of 2015, reflecting the impact of higher income from certain investments that are required to be carried at fair value through earnings and higher equity in the earnings of limited partnerships and similar investments, partially offset by lower yields available in the financial markets.

Property and Casualty Other Income and Expenses, Net
GAAP other income and expenses, net for AFG’s property and casualty operations was net income of $4 million for the first nine months of 2016 compared to $27 million for the first nine months of 2015. Core other income and expenses, net for AFG’s property and casualty operations was a net expense of $28 million for the first nine months of 2016 compared to $24 million for the first nine months of 2015. The table below details the items included in GAAP and core other income and expenses, net for AFG’s property and casualty operations (in millions):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
Other income
 
 
 
Income from the sale of real estate (*)
$
—

 
$
3

Other
14

 
7

Total other income
14

 
10

Other expenses
 
 
 
Amortization of intangibles
6

 
6

NATL merger expenses
5

 
—

Other
31

 
27

Total other expense
42

 
33

Interest expense
—

 
1

Core other income and expenses, net
(28
)
 
(24
)
Pretax non-core gain on sale of apartment property and hotel
32

 
51

GAAP other income and expenses, net
$
4

 
$
27


(*)
Excludes pretax non-core gains of $32 million on the sale of an apartment property in the second quarter of 2016 and $51 million on the sale of Le Pavillon Hotel in the second quarter of 2015.

Other income for AFG’s property and casualty operations includes a $4 million death benefit on a life insurance policy received in the second quarter of 2016.

Interest expense for AFG’s property and casualty operations includes interest charges on long-term debt within the property and casualty operations.

79
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued



Annuity Segment — Results of Operations
AFG’s annuity operations contributed $236 million in pretax earnings in the first nine months of 2016 compared to $230 million in the first nine months of 2015, an increase of $6 million (3%). The increase in AFG’s annuity segment results for the first nine months of 2016 compared to the first nine months of 2015 reflects higher investment income from certain investments that are required to be carried at fair value through earnings and a 13% increase in average annuity investments (at amortized cost), partially offset by lower investment yields due to the run-off of higher yielding investments. Included in these results is the change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities (“FIAs”), which had a negative impact of $56 million for the first nine months of 2016 compared to $28 million for the 2015 period. For the first nine months of 2016, the negative impact of a significant drop in interest rates on fair value accounting for FIAs was partially offset by the positive impact of an increase in the stock market. For the 2015 period, fair value accounting for FIAs was negatively impacted by a significant decrease in the stock market and a slightly lower than expected increase in interest rates.

The following table details AFG’s earnings before income taxes from its annuity operations for the nine months ended September 30, 2016 and 2015 (dollars in millions).
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
% Change
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
Net investment income
$
1,010

 
$
915

 
10
%
Other income:
 
 
 
 
 
Guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees
39

 
31

 
26
%
Policy charges and other miscellaneous income
37

 
44

 
(16
%)
Total revenues
1,086

 
990

 
10
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
Costs and Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
Annuity benefits (*)
640

 
543

 
18
%
Acquisition expenses
127

 
143

 
(11
%)
Other expenses
83

 
74

 
12
%
Total costs and expenses
850

 
760

 
12
%
Earnings before income taxes
$
236

 
$
230

 
3
%

Detail of annuity earnings before income taxes (dollars in millions):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
% Change
Earnings before income taxes — before the impact of derivatives related to FIAs
$
292

 
$
258

 
13
%
Impact of derivatives related to FIAs
(56
)
 
(28
)
 
100
%
Earnings before income taxes
$
236

 
$
230

 
3
%

80
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


(*)
Annuity benefits consisted of the following (dollars in millions):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
% Change
Interest credited — fixed
$
426

 
$
394

 
8
%
Interest credited — fixed component of variable annuities
4

 
5

 
(20
%)
Other annuity benefits:
 
 
 
 
 
Change in expected death and annuitization reserve
14

 
14

 
—
%
Amortization of sales inducements
17

 
20

 
(15
%)
Change in guaranteed withdrawal benefit reserve
49

 
48

 
2
%
Change in other benefit reserves
23

 
17

 
35
%
Total other annuity benefits
103

 
99

 
4
%
Total before impact of derivatives related to FIAs
533

 
498

 
7
%
Derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities:
 
 
 
 
 
Embedded derivative mark-to-market
188

 
(99
)
 
(290
%)
Equity option mark-to-market
(81
)
 
144

 
(156
%)
Impact of derivatives related to FIAs
107

 
45

 
138
%
Total annuity benefits
$
640

 
$
543

 
18
%

Net Spread on Fixed Annuities (excludes variable annuity earnings)
The table below (dollars in millions) details the components of the spreads for AFG’s fixed annuity operations (including fixed-indexed annuities):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
% Change
Average fixed annuity investments (at amortized cost)
$
27,899

 
$
24,765

 
13
%
Average fixed annuity benefits accumulated
27,778

 
24,514

 
13
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
As % of fixed annuity benefits accumulated (except as noted):
 
 
 
 
 
Net investment income (as % of fixed annuity investments)
4.79
%
 
4.89
%
 
 
Interest credited — fixed
(2.04
%)
 
(2.14
%)
 
 
Net interest spread
2.75
%
 
2.75
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Policy charges and other miscellaneous income
0.14
%
 
0.19
%
 
 
Other annuity benefit expenses, net of guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees
(0.31
%)
 
(0.36
%)
 
 
Acquisition expenses
(0.58
%)
 
(0.74
%)
 
 
Other expenses
(0.39
%)
 
(0.38
%)
 
 
Change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities
(0.51
%)
 
(0.25
%)
 
 
Net spread earned on fixed annuities
1.10
%
 
1.21
%
 
 

The table below illustrates the impact of fair value accounting for derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities on the annuity segment’s net spread earned on fixed annuities:
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
Net spread earned on fixed annuities — before impact of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities
1.37
%
 
1.36
%
Impact of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities (*)
(0.27
%)
 
(0.15
%)
Net spread earned on fixed annuities
1.10
%
 
1.21
%
(*)
Change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities offset by an estimate of the related deceleration of amortization of deferred sales inducements and deferred policy acquisition costs.

Annuity Net Investment Income
Net investment income for the first nine months of 2016 was $1.01 billion compared to $915 million for the first nine months of 2015, an increase of $95 million (10%). This increase reflects primarily the growth in AFG’s annuity business, partially offset by the impact of lower in-force investment yields. The overall yield earned on investments in AFG’s annuity operations,

81
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


calculated as net investment income divided by average investment balances (at amortized cost), declined by 0.10 percentage points to 4.79% from 4.89% for the first nine months of 2016 compared to the first nine months of 2015. This decline in net investment yield reflects (i) the investment of new premium dollars at lower yields as compared to the existing investment portfolio and (ii) the impact of the reinvestment of proceeds from maturity and redemption of higher yielding investments at the lower yields available in the financial markets, partially offset by higher investment income from certain investments that are required to be carried at fair value through earnings.

Annuity Interest Credited — Fixed
Interest credited — fixed for the first nine months of 2016 was $426 million compared to $394 million for the first nine months of 2015, an increase of $32 million (8%). The impact of growth in the annuity business was partially offset by lower interest crediting rates on new premiums as compared to the crediting rates on policyholder funds surrendered or withdrawn. The average interest rate credited to policyholders, calculated as interest credited divided by average fixed annuity benefits accumulated, decreased 0.10 percentage points to 2.04% from 2.14% in the first nine months of 2016 compared to the first nine months of 2015.

Annuity Net Interest Spread
AFG’s net interest spread was 2.75 percentage points in both the first nine months of 2016 and 2015 as the impact of lower in-force investment yields was offset by lower crediting rates and higher income from certain investments that are required to be carried at fair value through earnings. In addition, features included in current annuity product offerings allow AFG to achieve its desired profitability at a lower net interest spread than historical product offerings. As a result of these two items, AFG expects its net interest spread to narrow in the future.

Annuity Policy Charges and Other Miscellaneous Income
Annuity policy charges and other miscellaneous income, which consist primarily of surrender charges, amortization of deferred upfront policy charges (unearned revenue) and income from sales of real estate, were $37 million for the first nine months of 2016 compared to $44 million for the first nine months of 2015, a decrease of $7 million (16%). Other miscellaneous income includes $3 million in income from the sale of real estate in the first nine months of 2016 compared to $6 million in the first nine months of 2015. As a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated, annuity policy charges and other miscellaneous income decreased 0.05 percentage points to 0.14% from 0.19% in the first nine months of 2016 compared to the first nine months of 2015.

Other Annuity Benefits, Net of Guaranteed Withdrawal Benefit Fees
Other annuity benefits, net of guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees, for the first nine months of 2016 were $64 million compared to $68 million for the first nine months of 2015, a decrease of $4 million (6%). As a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated, these net expenses decreased 0.05 percentage points to 0.31% from 0.36% in the first nine months of 2016 compared to the first nine months of 2015. In addition to interest credited to policyholders’ accounts and the change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities, annuity benefits expense also includes the following expenses (in millions, net of guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
Change in expected death and annuitization reserve
$
14

 
$
14

Amortization of sales inducements
17

 
20

Change in guaranteed withdrawal benefit reserve
49

 
48

Change in other benefit reserves
23

 
17

Other annuity benefits
103

 
99

Offset guaranteed withdrawal benefit fees
(39
)
 
(31
)
Other annuity benefits, net
$
64

 
$
68


As discussed under “Annuity Benefits Accumulated” in Note A — “Accounting Policies”, guaranteed withdrawal benefit reserves are accrued for and modified using assumptions similar to those used in establishing and amortizing deferred policy acquisition costs. The guaranteed withdrawal benefit reserve related to FIAs is inversely impacted by the calculated FIA embedded derivative reserve as the value to policyholders of the guaranteed withdrawal benefits decreases when the benefit of stock market participation increases.


82
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Annuity Acquisition Expenses
AFG’s amortization of DPAC and commission expenses as a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated was 0.58% for the first nine months of 2016 compared to 0.74% for the first nine months of 2015 and has generally ranged between 0.75% and 0.85%. Variances from the general range relate primarily to the impact of (i) material changes in interest rates or the stock market on AFG’s fixed-indexed annuity business, and (ii) differences in actual experience from actuarially projected estimates and assumptions. For example, the negative impact of significantly lower than anticipated interest rates during the first nine months of 2016 and the significant stock market decrease in the first nine months of 2015 on the fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities (discussed below) resulted in a partially offsetting deceleration in the amortization of DPAC.

The table below illustrates the estimated impact of fair value accounting for derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities on annuity acquisition expenses as a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated:
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
Before the impact of changes in the fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities on the amortization of DPAC
0.81
%
 
0.83
%
Impact of changes in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities on amortization of DPAC (*)
(0.23
%)
 
(0.09
%)
Annuity acquisition expenses as a % of fixed annuity benefits accumulated
0.58
%
 
0.74
%
(*)
An estimate of the deceleration in the amortization of deferred sales inducement and deferred policy acquisition costs resulting from fair value accounting for derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities.

Annuity Other Expenses
Annuity other expenses for the first nine months of 2016 were $83 million compared to $74 million for the first nine months of 2015, an increase of $9 million (12%). Annuity other expenses represent primarily general and administrative expenses, as well as selling and issuance expenses that are not deferred. The increase in annuity other expenses primarily reflects growth in the business as well as an increase in the number of sales personnel focused on new initiatives and increased market share within existing financial institutions, partially offset by higher expenses related to professional services and employee compensation plans in the 2015 period. As a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated, these expenses increased 0.01 percentage points to 0.39% from 0.38% for the first nine months of 2016 as compared to the first nine months of 2015.

Change in Fair Value of Derivatives Related to Fixed-Indexed Annuities
AFG’s fixed-indexed annuities provide policyholders with a crediting rate tied, in part, to the performance of an existing stock market index. AFG attempts to mitigate the risk in the index-based component of these products through the purchase of call options on the appropriate index. AFG’s strategy is designed so that the change in the fair value of the call option assets will generally offset the economic change in the liabilities from the index participation. Both the index-based component of the annuities and the related call options are considered derivatives that must be adjusted for changes in fair value through earnings each period. The fair values of these derivatives are impacted by actual and expected stock market performance and interest rates as well as other factors. For a list of other factors impacting the fair value of the index-based component of AFG’s annuity benefits accumulated, see Note D — “Fair Value Measurements” to the financial statements. The net change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities increased annuity benefits by $107 million in the first nine months of 2016 compared to $45 million in the first nine months of 2015. The increase in the first nine months of 2016 is due primarily to significantly lower than expected interest rates, partially offset by the impact of an increase in the stock market. The increase in the first nine months of 2015 reflects the negative impact of the significant decline in the stock market and lower than anticipated interest rates on these derivatives. As a percentage of average fixed annuity benefits accumulated, this net expense increased 0.26 percentage points to 0.51% from 0.25% for the first nine months of 2016 compared to the first nine months of 2015.


83
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Fluctuations in interest rates and the stock market, among other factors, can cause volatility in the periodic measurement of fair value of the embedded derivative that management believes can be inconsistent with the long-term economics of these products. The table below illustrates the impact of fair value accounting for derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities on the annuity segment’s earnings before income taxes (dollars in millions):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
% Change
Earnings before income taxes — before change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities
$
292

 
$
258

 
13
%
Change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities
(107
)
 
(45
)
 
138
%
Related impact on amortization of DPAC (*)
51

 
17

 
200
%
Earnings before income taxes
$
236

 
$
230

 
3
%
(*)
An estimate of the related deceleration of amortization of deferred sales inducements and deferred policy acquisition costs.

As illustrated in the table above, the change in fair value of derivatives related to fixed-indexed annuities, including the related impact on amortization of DPAC decreased the annuity segment’s earnings before income taxes by $56 million in the first nine months of 2016 and $28 million in the first nine months of 2015.

Annuity Net Spread Earned on Fixed Annuities
AFG’s net spread earned on fixed annuities decreased 0.11 percentage points to 1.10% from 1.21% in the first nine months of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015 due primarily to the net impact of changes in the fair value of derivatives and related DPAC amortization offset discussed above.

Annuity Benefits Accumulated
Annuity premiums received and benefit payments are recorded as increases or decreases in annuity benefits accumulated rather than as revenue and expense. Increases in this liability for interest credited and other benefits are charged to expense and decreases for surrender and other policy charges are credited to other income.

For certain products, annuity benefits accumulated also includes reserves for accrued persistency and premium bonuses, excess benefits expected to be paid on future deaths and annuitizations (“EDAR”) and guaranteed withdrawal benefits. Annuity benefits accumulated also includes amounts advanced from the Federal Home Loan Bank of Cincinnati. The following table is a progression of AFG’s annuity benefits accumulated liability for the nine months ended September 30, 2016 and 2015 (in millions):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
Beginning fixed annuity reserves
$
26,371

 
$
23,462

Fixed annuity premiums (receipts)
3,295

 
3,001

Federal Home Loan Bank advances
150

 
300

Surrenders, benefits and other withdrawals
(1,665
)
 
(1,417
)
Interest and other annuity benefit expenses:
 
 
 
Interest credited
426

 
394

Embedded derivative mark-to-market
188

 
(99
)
Change in other benefit reserves
88

 
84

Ending fixed annuity reserves
$
28,853

 
$
25,725

 
 
 
 
Reconciliation to annuity benefits accumulated per balance sheet:
 
 
 
Ending fixed annuity reserves (from above)
$
28,853

 
$
25,725

Impact of unrealized investment gains
180

 
113

Fixed component of variable annuities
189

 
188

Annuity benefits accumulated per balance sheet
$
29,222

 
$
26,026



84
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Statutory Annuity Premiums
AFG’s annuity operations generated statutory premiums of $3.32 billion in the first nine months of 2016 compared to $3.03 billion in the first nine months of 2015, an increase of $291 million (10%). The following table summarizes AFG’s annuity sales (dollars in millions):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
% Change
Financial institutions single premium annuities — indexed
$
1,476

 
$
1,279

 
15
%
Financial institutions single premium annuities — fixed
316

 
157

 
101
%
Retail single premium annuities — indexed
1,299

 
1,370

 
(5
%)
Retail single premium annuities — fixed
60

 
52

 
15
%
Education market — fixed and indexed annuities
144

 
143

 
1
%
Total fixed annuity premiums
3,295

 
3,001

 
10
%
Variable annuities
29

 
32

 
(9
%)
Total annuity premiums
$
3,324

 
$
3,033

 
10
%

Management believes the 10% increase in annuity premiums in the first nine months of 2016 as compared to the first nine months of 2015 is consistent with overall growth in the annuity industry, as sales of traditional fixed and fixed-indexed annuities have increased while sales of variable annuities have decreased. In addition, the increase reflects new products, additional staffing, and increased market share within existing financial institutions. This growth slowed in the third quarter of 2016 as a result of AFG’s reduction in crediting rates on its annuities in the first nine months of 2016 due to the decline in market interest rates; these crediting rate reductions were made to maintain appropriate returns on new business.

Annuity Earnings before Income Taxes Reconciliation
The following table reconciles the net spread earned on AFG’s fixed annuities to overall annuity pretax earnings for the nine months ended September 30, 2016 and 2015 (in millions):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
2016
 
2015
Earnings on fixed annuity benefits accumulated
$
230

 
$
222

Earnings on investments in excess of fixed annuity benefits accumulated (*)
4

 
9

Variable annuity earnings (loss)
2

 
(1
)
Earnings before income taxes
$
236

 
$
230


(*)
Net investment income (as a % of investments) of 4.79% and 4.89% for the nine months ended September 30, 2016 and 2015, respectively, multiplied by the difference between average fixed annuity investments (at amortized cost) and average fixed annuity benefits accumulated in each period.


85
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Run-off Long-Term Care and Life Segment — Results of Operations AFG’s run-off long-term care and life segment reported GAAP pretax earnings of $2 million for the first nine months of 2016 compared to a loss of $148 million for the first nine months of 2015. Results for the 2015 period include a $162 million estimated pretax non-core realized loss on the sale of subsidiaries containing substantially all of AFG’s run-off long-term care insurance business, which closed in the fourth quarter of 2015. See Note B — “Acquisition and Sale of Businesses” to the financial statements. The following table details AFG’s GAAP and core earnings (loss) before income taxes from its run-off long-term care and life operations for the nine months ended September 30, 2016 and 2015 (dollars in millions):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
% Change
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums:
 
 
 
 
 
Long-term care
$
2

 
$
56

 
(96
%)
Life operations
16

 
24

 
(33
%)
Net investment income
15

 
61

 
(75
%)
Other income
4

 
4

 
—
%
Total revenues
37

 
145

 
(74
%)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Costs and Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
Life, accident and health benefits:
 
 
 
 
 
Long-term care
5

 
67

 
(93
%)
Life operations
21

 
29

 
(28
%)
Acquisition expenses
4

 
13

 
(69
%)
Other expenses
7

 
22

 
(68
%)
Total costs and expenses
37

 
131

 
(72
%)
Core earnings (loss) before income taxes
—

 
14

 
(100
%)
Pretax non-core realized gain (loss) on subsidiaries
2

 
(162
)
 
(101
%)
GAAP earnings (loss) before income taxes
$
2

 
$
(148
)
 
(101
%)

The decrease in long-term care net earned premiums and benefit expense in the first nine months of 2016 compared to the first nine months of 2015 is due to the sale of subsidiaries containing substantially all of AFG’s run-off long-term care insurance business in December of 2015.

Substantially all of the core earnings before income taxes in AFG’s run-off long-term care and life segment in the first nine months of 2015 represent earnings from AFG’s long-term care business and reflect the impact of improved claims experience, rate increases and lower persistency, as well as strong investment income.

86
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


Holding Company, Other and Unallocated — Results of Operations   AFG’s net GAAP pretax loss outside of its insurance operations (excluding realized gains and losses) totaled $131 million for both the first nine months of 2016 and 2015. AFG’s net core pretax loss outside of its insurance operations (excluding realized gains and losses) totaled $126 million for the first nine months of 2016 compared to $115 million for the first nine months of 2015, an increase of $11 million (10%).

The following table details AFG’s GAAP and core loss before income taxes from operations outside of its insurance operations for the nine months ended September 30, 2016 and 2015 (dollars in millions):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
% Change
Revenues:
 
 
 
 
 
Net investment income
$
6

 
$
1

 
500
%
Other income — P&C fees
43

 
38

 
13
%
Other income
15

 
18

 
(17
%)
Total revenues
64

 
57

 
12
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
Costs and Expenses:
 
 
 
 
 
Property and casualty insurance — commissions and other underwriting expenses
13

 
10

 
30
%
Interest charges on borrowed money
56

 
57

 
(2
%)
Other expense — expenses associated with P&C fees
30

 
28

 
7
%
Other expenses (*)
91

 
77

 
18
%
Total costs and expenses
190

 
172

 
10
%
Core loss before income taxes, excluding realized gains and losses
(126
)
 
(115
)
 
10
%
Pretax non-core special A&E charges
(5
)
 
(12
)
 
(58
%)
Pretax non-core loss on retirement of debt
—

 
(4
)
 
(100
%)
GAAP loss before income taxes, excluding realized gains and losses
$
(131
)
 
$
(131
)
 
—
%

(*)
Excludes pretax non-core special A&E charges of $5 million and $12 million in the third quarter of 2016 and 2015, respectively, and a pretax non-core loss on retirement of debt of $4 million in the third quarter of 2015. See “Results of Operations — Holding Company, Other and Unallocated” for the quarters ended September 30, 2016 and 2015 for a discussion of these non-core charges.

Holding Company and Other — Net Investment Income
AFG recorded net investment income on investments held outside of its insurance operations of $6 million in the first nine months of 2016 compared to $1 million in the first nine months of 2015. The parent company holds a small portfolio of securities that are classified as “trading” and carried at fair value through net investment income. These trading securities increased in value by approximately $3 million in the first nine months of 2016 compared to a slight decrease in value in the first nine months of 2015.

Holding Company and Other — P&C Fees and Related Expenses
Summit, the workers’ compensation insurance business that AFG acquired in April 2014, collects fees from a small group of unaffiliated insurers for providing underwriting, policy administration and claims services. In addition, certain of AFG’s property and casualty businesses collect fees from customers for ancillary services such as workplace safety programs and premium financing. In the first nine months of 2016, AFG collected $43 million in fees for these services compared to $38 million in the first nine months of 2015. Management views this fee income, net of the $30 million in the first nine months of 2016 and $28 million in the first nine months of 2015, in expenses incurred to generate such fees, as a reduction in the cost of underwriting its property and casualty insurance policies. Consistent with internal management reporting, these fees and the related expenses are netted and recorded as a reduction of commissions and other underwriting expenses in AFG’s segmented results.

Holding Company and Other — Other Income
Other income in the table above includes $12 million and $11 million in the first nine months of 2016 and 2015, respectively, in management fees paid to AFG by the AFG-managed CLOs (AFG’s consolidated managed investment entities). The management fees are eliminated in consolidation — see the other income line in the Consolidate MIEs column under “Results of Operations — Segmented Statement of Earnings.” Excluding amounts eliminated in consolidation, AFG recorded other

87
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


income outside of its insurance operations of $3 million in the first nine months of 2016 and $7 million in the first nine months of 2015.

Holding Company and Other — Interest Charges on Borrowed Money
AFG’s holding companies and other operations outside of its insurance operations recorded interest expense of $56 million in the first nine months of 2016 compared to $57 million in the first nine months of 2015, a decrease of $1 million (2%). The impact of higher average indebtedness during the first nine months of 2016 as compared to the first nine months of 2015 was more than offset by a lower weighted average interest rate and the favorable impact of the interest rate swap on the 9-7/8% Senior Notes due June 2019 that was entered into in June 2015.

The increase in average indebtedness for the first nine months of 2016 as compared to the first nine months of 2015 reflects the following financing transactions completed by AFG between January 1, 2015 and September 30, 2016:
•
Issued $300 million of 3-1/2% Senior Notes on August 22, 2016.
•
Issued $150 million of 6% Subordinated Debentures on November 17, 2015.
•
Redeemed $132 million of 7% Senior Notes at par value on September 30, 2015.

Holding Company and Other — Other Expenses
Excluding the non-core special A&E charges and the non-core loss on retirement of debt, AFG’s holding companies and other operations outside of its insurance operations recorded other expenses of $91 million in the first nine months of 2016 compared to $77 million in the first nine months of 2015, an increase of $14 million (18%). This increase reflects higher holding company expenses related to employee benefit plans that are tied to stock market performance and a $5 million donation to the University of Cincinnati College of Business in the third quarter of 2016.

Holding Company and Other — Special A&E Charges
See “Holding Company and Other — Special A&E Charges” under “Results of Operations — Holding Company, Other and Unallocated” for the quarters ended September 30, 2016 and 2015 for a discussion of the $5 million and $12 million in non-core special A&E charges recorded in the third quarter of 2016 and 2015, respectively.

Holding Company and Other — Loss on Retirement of Debt
See “Holding Company and Other — Loss on Retirement of Debt” under “Results of Operations — Holding Company, Other and Unallocated” for the quarters ended September 30, 2016 and 2015 for a discussion of the $4 million loss on retirement of debt recorded in the third quarter of 2015.

Consolidated Realized Gains (Losses) on Securities   AFG’s consolidated realized gains (losses) on securities, which are not allocated to segments, were losses of $32 million in the first nine months of 2016 compared to gains of $2 million in the first nine months of 2015, a decrease of $34 million (1,700%). Realized gains (losses) on securities consisted of the following (in millions):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
2016
 
2015
Realized gains (losses) before impairments:
 
 
 
Disposals
$
82

 
$
81

Change in the fair value of derivatives
—

 
(7
)
Adjustments to annuity deferred policy acquisition costs and related items
(7
)
 
(3
)
 
75

 
71

Impairment charges:
 
 
 
Securities
(120
)
 
(80
)
Adjustments to annuity deferred policy acquisition costs and related items
13

 
11

 
(107
)
 
(69
)
Realized gains (losses) on securities
$
(32
)
 
$
2

AFG’s impairment charges on securities for the first nine months of 2016 consist of $83 million on equity securities and $37 million on fixed maturities compared to $48 million on equity securities and $32 million on fixed maturities in the first nine months of 2015. Approximately $68 million in impairment charges in the first nine months of 2016 are related to financial institutions and $19 million are on energy related investments. Approximately $30 million of the charges recorded in the first nine months of 2015 are on energy related investments, $13 million are on real estate related investments and $7 million on investments in metal mining companies.

88
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued



Consolidated Realized Gain (Loss) on Subsidiaries   In the first quarter of 2015, AFG recorded an estimated pretax loss of $162 million on the sale of subsidiaries containing substantially all of AFG’s run-off long-term care insurance business. In the second quarter of 2016, AFG received additional proceeds based on the final closing balance sheet and adjusted certain accrued expense estimates associated with the sale, resulting in a $2 million favorable adjustment to the loss recorded in 2015. See Note B — “Acquisition and Sale of Businesses” to the financial statements. In addition, AFG recorded a $5 million pretax realized gain in the third quarter of 2015 representing an adjustment to the previously recognized loss on a small property and casualty subsidiary sold several years ago.

Consolidated Income Taxes   AFG’s consolidated provision for income taxes was $190 million for the first nine months of 2016 compared to $115 million for the first nine months of 2015, an increase of $75 million (65%). See Note L — “Income Taxes” to the financial statements for an analysis of items affecting AFG’s effective tax rate.

Consolidated Noncontrolling Interests   AFG’s consolidated net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests was $16 million for the first nine months of 2016 compared to $17 million for the first nine months of 2015. The following table details net earnings in consolidated subsidiaries attributable to holders other than AFG (dollars in millions):
 
Nine months ended September 30,
 
 
 
2016
 
2015
 
% Change
National Interstate
$
12

 
$
9

 
33
%
Other
4

 
8

 
(50
%)
Earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests
$
16

 
$
17

 
(6
%)

Other noncontrolling interests includes $4 million related to the gain on the sale of an apartment property in the second quarter of 2016 and $6 million related to the gain on the sale of Le Pavillon Hotel in the second quarter of 2015. Both properties were owned by an 80%-owned subsidiary of GAI.

RECENTLY ADOPTED ACCOUNTING STANDARDS

See Note A — “Accounting Policies — Managed Investment Entities” to the financial statements for a discussion of accounting guidance adopted on January 1, 2016, which impacts the consolidation of collateralized financing entities such as CLOs, as well as limited partnerships and similar investments.

See Note A — “Accounting Policies — Debt Issuance Costs” to the financial statements for a discussion of accounting guidance adopted on January 1, 2016, which impacted the presentation of debt issuance costs.

ACCOUNTING STANDARDS TO BE ADOPTED

In May 2015, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”) issued Accounting Standards Update (“ASU”) 2015-09, Financial Services – Insurance: Disclosures about Short-Duration Contracts, which requires additional disclosures about the liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses (including accident year information). AFG will be required to adopt the updated guidance for annual reporting beginning in 2016 and interim reporting beginning with the first quarter of 2017. Because the new guidance does not affect the existing recognition or measurement guidance, the adoption will have no effect on AFG’s financial condition or results of operations.

In January 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-01, Financial Instruments – Overall: Recognition and Measurement of Financial Assets and Financial Liabilities which, among other things, requires equity investments that are not accounted for under the equity method of accounting to be measured at fair value with changes in fair value recognized in net income, clarifies that the need for a valuation allowance on a deferred tax asset related to available for sale securities should be evaluated with other deferred tax assets and modifies disclosure requirements for financial instruments. AFG will be required to adopt the updated guidance effective January 1, 2018 (early adoption is not permitted). Although recording changes in the fair value of investments in equity securities in net income will result in more volatility in AFG’s Statement of Earnings, it is not expected to have a material effect on the carrying value of AFG’s investments or on overall shareholders’ equity as AFG’s investments in equity securities are currently carried at fair value through accumulated other comprehensive income.

In February 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-02, Leases, which requires entities that lease assets for terms longer than one year to recognize the assets and liabilities for the rights and obligations created by those leases on the balance sheet based on

89
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Continued


the present value of cash flows. Qualitative and quantitative disclosures of the amount, timing and uncertainty of cash flows arising from leases will also be required. Although the guidance allows for early adoption, AFG expects to adopt the updated guidance effective January 1, 2019 (when it is required). The guidance will require that the earliest comparative period presented to include the measurement and recognition of existing leases with an adjustment to shareholders’ equity as if the updated guidance had always been applied. Although the guidance will result in higher assets and higher liabilities from the recognition of assets and liabilities related to operating leases, it does not change the manner in which lease expense is recognized in the statement of earnings. Although management is currently evaluating the impact of this guidance, AFG does not expect it to have a material effect on its results of operations or financial position.

In March 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-09, Compensation – Stock Compensation: Improvements to Employee Share-Based Payment Accounting, which simplifies several aspects of the accounting for share-based payment transactions including the income tax consequences, classification of awards as either equity or liabilities and classification on the statement of cash flows. AFG will be required to adopt the updated guidance effective January 1, 2017 (early adoption is permitted). Management does not expect the adoption of this guidance to have a material effect on its results of operations or financial position.

In June 2016, the FASB issued ASU 2016-13, Financial Instruments – Credit Losses: Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments which provides a new credit loss model for determining credit-related impairments for financial instruments measured at amortized cost (e.g. mortgage loans or reinsurance recoverables) and requires an entity to estimate the credit losses expected over the life of an exposure or pool of exposures. The estimate of expected credit losses considers historical information, current information, as well as reasonable and supportable forecasts, including estimates of prepayments. The expected credit losses, and subsequent increases or decreases in such losses, will be recorded immediately through realized gains (losses) as an allowance that is deducted from the amortized cost basis of the financial asset, with the net carrying value of the financial asset presented on the balance sheet at the amount expected to be collected. The updated guidance also amends the current other-than-temporary impairment model for available for sale debt securities by requiring the recognition of impairments relating to credit losses through an allowance account and limits the amount of credit loss to the difference between a security’s amortized cost basis and its fair value. Subsequent increases or decreases in expected credit losses will be recorded immediately in the income statement through realized gains (losses). AFG will be required to adopt this guidance effective January 1, 2020. AFG cannot estimate the impact that the updated guidance will have on its results of operations, financial position or liquidity until the updated guidance is adopted.


ITEM 3
Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosure about Market Risk

As of September 30, 2016, there were no material changes to the information provided in Item 7A — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk of AFG’s 2015 Form 10-K.


ITEM 4
Controls and Procedures

AFG’s management, with participation of its Co-Chief Executive Officers and its Chief Financial Officer, has evaluated AFG’s disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Exchange Act Rule 13a-15) as of the end of the period covered by this report. Based on that evaluation, AFG’s Co-CEOs and CFO concluded that the controls and procedures are effective. There have been no changes in AFG’s internal control over financial reporting during the third fiscal quarter of 2016 that materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, AFG’s internal control over financial reporting.

In the ordinary course of business, AFG and its subsidiaries routinely enhance their information systems by either upgrading current systems or implementing new systems. There has been no change in AFG’s business processes and procedures during the third fiscal quarter of 2016 that has materially affected, or is reasonably likely to materially affect, AFG’s internal control over financial reporting.


90
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

PART II
OTHER INFORMATION
ITEM 1
Legal Proceedings

On October 7, 2016, a purported shareholder of National Interstate Corporation (“NATL”) filed an action, relating to the proposed merger in which Great American Insurance Company (“GAI”) would acquire the remaining shares of NATL that it does not already own, on behalf of a putative class of NATL’s shareholders in the United States District Court for the Northern District of Ohio, captioned Solak v. National Interstate, et al., Case No. 5:16-cv-02470-SL. The Solak action names as defendants NATL, the members of NATL’s board of directors, AFG, GAI and GAIC Alloy, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of GAI formed to effect the merger transaction, alleging class and derivative claims under Sections 13(e), 14(a) and 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and rules and regulations promulgated thereunder, and for breaches of fiduciary duties by the members of NATL’s board of directors and by GAI as an alleged controlling shareholder. The complaint contains both direct class action claims as well as indirect shareholder derivative claims. AFG believes that the allegations in this action are without merit.

ITEM 1A
Risk Factors

Other than the risk factor discussed below, there have been no material changes with regard to the risk factors previously disclosed in AFG’s 2015 Annual Report on Form 10-K.

Recent developments relating to the United Kingdom’s referendum vote in favor of leaving the European Union could adversely affect AFG’s London-based property and casualty insurance operations.

The United Kingdom (“UK”) held a referendum on June 23, 2016 in which a majority of voters voted for the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union (“Brexit”). As a result of this vote, the terms of the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union (“EU”) and relationship between the UK and EU going forward will have to be negotiated, including the terms of trade between the UK and the EU. The ultimate impact of Brexit is uncertain and will depend on any agreements that the UK makes to retain access to EU markets. Brexit could also lead to legal uncertainty and potentially divergent national laws and regulations as the UK determines which EU laws to replace or replicate. These or other adverse consequences from Brexit could adversely affect the operations and business opportunities of Neon, AFG’s London-based Lloyd’s syndicate.


91
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

ITEM 2
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds

Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities AFG repurchased shares of its Common Stock during the first nine months of 2016 as follows: 
 
Total
Number
of Shares
Purchased
 
Average
Price Paid
Per Share
 
Total Number
of Shares
Purchased as
Part of Publicly
Announced Plans
or Programs
 
Maximum Number
of Shares
that May
Yet be Purchased
Under the Plans
or Programs (a)
First Six Months
1,438,142

 
$
67.90

 
1,438,142

 
4,606,672

Third Quarter:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
July
—

 
—

 
—

 
4,606,672

August
222,000

 
73.70

 
222,000

 
4,384,672

September
135,867

 
74.43

 
135,867

 
4,248,805

Total
1,796,009

 
$
69.11

 
1,796,009

 
 
 
(a)
Represents the remaining shares that may be repurchased under the Plan authorized by AFG’s Board of Directors in December 2014 and February 2016.

In addition, AFG acquired 28,044 shares of its Common Stock (at an average of $66.96 per share) in the first six months of 2016 and 15 shares (at $73.77 per share) in July 2016 in connection with its stock incentive plans.

92
Table of Contents
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. 10-Q

ITEM 6
Exhibits
 
Number
 
Exhibit Description
 
 
2
 
Agreement and Plan of Merger dated July 25, 2016 by and among Great American Insurance Company and National Interstate Corporation, filed as Exhibit 2.1 to AFG’s Form 8-K on July 25, 2016.
 
(*)
12
 
Computation of ratios of earnings to fixed charges.
 
 
31(a)
 
Certification of Co-Chief Executive Officer pursuant to section 302(a) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.
 
 
31(b)
 
Certification of Co-Chief Executive Officer pursuant to section 302(a) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.
 
 
31(c)
 
Certification of Chief Financial Officer pursuant to section 302(a) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.
 
 
32
 
Certification of Co-Chief Executive Officers and Chief Financial Officer pursuant to section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002.
 
 
101
 
The following financial information from American Financial Group’s Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2016, formatted in XBRL (Extensible Business Reporting Language):
 
 
 
 
       (i) Consolidated Balance Sheet
 
 
 
 
      (ii) Consolidated Statement of Earnings
 
 
 
 
     (iii) Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income
 
 
 
 
     (iv) Consolidated Statement of Changes in Equity
 
 
 
 
      (v) Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows
 
 
 
 
     (vi) Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
(*) Incorporated herein by reference.
 
 
 


Signature
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.

 
American Financial Group, Inc.
 
 
 
 
November 4, 2016
By:
 
/s/ Joseph E. (Jeff) Consolino
 
 
 
Joseph E. (Jeff) Consolino
 
 
 
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

93